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Houses Prices To Rise 6%

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You must have typed this post in a font that's invisible to bears. Either that or they don't want to be enlightened to the posibility that they may not be a crash.

I see you had quite a few visits so they are obviously sticking there heads in the sand :D

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Guest Guy_Montag

And most believed that house prices in 2006 would be weaker still, with the Council of Mortgage Lenders predicting a two per cent rise, HSBC predicting no more than three per cent growth, and Nationwide 0-3 per cent.

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You must have typed this post in a font that's invisible to bears. Either that or they don't want to be enlightened to the posibility that they may not be a crash.

I see you had quite a few visits so they are obviously sticking there heads in the sand :D

"With interest rates expectations anchored at 4.5 per cent and with a booming financial sector, housing prices are expected to grow relatively robustly this year - and by more than most currently expect,"

And if rates go up?

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You must have typed this post in a font that's invisible to bears. Either that or they don't want to be enlightened to the posibility that they may not be a crash.

I see you had quite a few visits so they are obviously sticking there heads in the sand :D

The reason why no-one is paying attention

With interest rates expectations anchored at 4.5 per cent

If they are using that for their predictions.... :D

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You must have typed this post in a font that's invisible to bears. Either that or they don't want to be enlightened to the posibility that they may not be a crash.

I see you had quite a few visits so they are obviously sticking there heads in the sand :D

The article says that house prices could rise by 6%, which is very soft language compared to what property bulls usually come up with.

The actual prediction is:

"With interest rates expectations anchored at 4.5 per cent and with a booming financial sector, housing prices are expected to grow relatively robustly this year - and by more than most currently expect," said Jonathan Said, of the centre for economics and business research (cebr).

There are two problems that I have with this. It says that interest rate expectations are anchored at 4.5%. Whose expectations?

Perhaps the CEBR believes that interest rates will not go up but that is not definate.

It seems to me to have been entered as a caveat. In other words the CEBR expect 6% (maximum) HPI if interest rates stay at 4.5% for the rest of the year.

My second problem with this is that they say that house prices will rise by more than most currently expect.

Most people seem to expect continuing strong rises in house prices and if others don't then surely it makes sense to make reference to why you think your own predictions have come out better than other people's.

I honestly don't think a booming financial sector will make up for weaknesses in the rest of the economy (retail and manufacturing for example).

Besides its easy to be bullish during the spring as property transactions are always at their best at that time. The real test will come later in the year and I would expect to see this predicition revised downwards if there is a change in interest rates.

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What happens if people don't want to borrow the money that all the banks have because they are worried about their jobs and are struggling to just pay the bills.?

If no one wants that money what do the banks do with it? I mean, if people don't want it and the Government cut back like they do every 7 years and they don't want it, what happens to it? Do they sell it to someone else or what?

Sounds daft but there comes a time when everyone gets stuffed sometime and when everyone gets stuffed at the same time then everyone is stuffed. When that happens I think it's called a recession.

Are we all stuffed yet?

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You must have typed this post in a font that's invisible to bears. Either that or they don't want to be enlightened to the posibility that they may not be a crash.

I see you had quite a few visits so they are obviously sticking there heads in the sand :D

why would anyone be interested in 6% when they've just made nearly 3x that in the last 12 months on equities ? :blink:

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The article says that house prices could rise by 6%, which is very soft language compared to what property bulls usually come up with.

The actual prediction is:

"With interest rates expectations anchored at 4.5 per cent and with a booming financial sector, housing prices are expected to grow relatively robustly this year - and by more than most currently expect," said Jonathan Said, of the centre for economics and business research (cebr).

There are two problems that I have with this. It says that interest rate expectations are anchored at 4.5%. Whose expectations?

Perhaps the CEBR believes that interest rates will not go up but that is not definate.

It seems to me to have been entered as a caveat. In other words the CEBR expect 6% (maximum) HPI if interest rates stay at 4.5% for the rest of the year.

My second problem with this is that they say that house prices will rise by more than most currently expect.

Most people seem to expect continuing strong rises in house prices and if others don't then surely it makes sense to make reference to why you think your own predictions have come out better than other people's.

I honestly don't think a booming financial sector will make up for weaknesses in the rest of the economy (retail and manufacturing for example).

Besides its easy to be bullish during the spring as property transactions are always at their best at that time. The real test will come later in the year and I would expect to see this predicition revised downwards if there is a change in interest rates.

You took the time to read it so fair play. Sounds as though you see IR's as a reason for prices not to rise significantly. Are you admitting that property prices won't be affected by the "apparent high property prices" but in fact IR's? You could be a bull in a years time - when IR's are unchanged or lower :P

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With real inflation running at 8% that's a 2% loss! OF course the prediction is wildly over-optimistic anyway... I would imagine prices flat by the end of the year - 8% down in rela terms. Of course if a trigger happens, they might fall faster. :) Next year and beyond, fall they will...

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It's funny how all these predictions are based on flawed assumptions. Even Haliwide says the market will have modest growth unless any circumstances (or how every they worded it) change.

No one (apart from us) has predicted what will happen to the market if rates go up to 4.75% or [god forbid] they rise to 5%!

Oh, and it has been mentioned: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=29126 I'm always on the ball!

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You took the time to read it so fair play. Sounds as though you see IR's as a reason for prices not to rise significantly. Are you admitting that property prices won't be affected by the "apparent high property prices" but in fact IR's? You could be a bull in a years time - when IR's are unchanged or lower :P

My reference to interest rates was related to the fact that the CEBR made their prediction based on interest rates remaining the same as well as the "booming financial sector" saving the rest of the economy.

I personally believe that even if interest rates remain the same that will not save house prices from this country's economic problems and debt crisis.

However, I did think it was important to point out what the CEBR based their prediction on.

You are right though if the BoE was stupid enough to lower interest rates or, even worse, lower them significantly they could encourage a few more fools to buy into property but that would still be putting off the inevitable crash. It would also mean that more people would be hurt when it finally does happen.

Personally I don't think the BoE would be that stupid but we shall see.

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My reference to interest rates was related to the fact that the CEBR made their prediction based on interest rates remaining the same as well as the "booming financial sector" saving the rest of the economy.

I personally believe that even if interest rates remain the same that will not save house prices from this country's economic problems and debt crisis.

However, I did think it was important to point out what the CEBR based their prediction on.

You are right though if the BoE was stupid enough to lower interest rates or, even worse, lower them significantly they could encourage a few more fools to buy into property but that would still be putting off the inevitable crash. It would also mean that more people would be hurt when it finally does happen.

Personally I don't think the BoE would be that stupid but we shall see.

I think the BOE/MPC is paralysed into inactivity and prefers to sit on its hands rather than take any meaningful action; damned if they do, damned if they don't.

It is also loaded with Brown's 'Botty Boys' who will do their Master's bidding.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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