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Gold - I'm Scared

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I'm still trying hard to understand the current rise in gold prices. Do those who have put a lot of their money in gold believe that it will continue to increase indefinitely? Do you believe it will top out? Drop? And what are the reasons behind your beliefs?

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I've been buying a set amount every time it goes up by $25. I started when it was at $400 (just bought more today at $675) and I plan to keep on going until my savings are gone. Others have discussed buying during pull backs but I've just ignored that and done it the easy way.

At the moment I see no reason for it not to continue. People need to put their money somewhere safe and people will learn not to trust governments and financial institutions more and more. I have a gut feeling that if this is a bubble then its only just started.

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I've been buying a set amount every time it goes up by $25. I started when it was at $400 (just bought more today at $675) and I plan to keep on going until my savings are gone. Others have discussed buying during pull backs but I've just ignored that and done it the easy way.

At the moment I see no reason for it not to continue. People need to put their money somewhere safe and people will learn not to trust governments and financial institutions more and more. I have a gut feeling that if this is a bubble then its only just started.

sine

if you dont mind me asking . how are you buying it ?

do you have an allocated acc. or lumps of metal to go under your mattress?

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sine

if you dont mind me asking . how are you buying it ?

do you have an allocated acc. or lumps of metal to go under your mattress?

I would go for lumps of metal - more untraceable if the sheete hits the fan

But bugger if im going to buy at $600

everything seems like a bubble just now!!

Stock market, housing and precious metals!!

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I would go for lumps of metal - more untraceable if the sheete hits the fan

But bugger if im going to buy at $600

everything seems like a bubble just now!!

Stock market, housing and precious metals!!

i like the thought of having lumps of metal as long as its going up in value.

its the getting rid of it quickly if it tanks that puts me off buying it!

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I'm still trying hard to understand the current rise in gold prices. Do those who have put a lot of their money in gold believe that it will continue to increase indefinitely? Do you believe it will top out? Drop? And what are the reasons behind your beliefs?

I have no idea where gold is going - though on occasion I hazard a (private) guess.

I hold some bullion grade - in my hands - as insurance - NOT an investment per se.

COMPARED to other assets gold is RELATIVELY cheap, though given my general outlook towards other assets that does not say much.

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sine

if you dont mind me asking . how are you buying it ?

do you have an allocated acc. or lumps of metal to go under your mattress?

I go for both. I started with the coins but thats a lot of hassle when its so easy to buy from Gold Money or GBS.LSE

The coins are to keep perhaps until my last remaining years and the others are to take advantage of this gold bubble which seems to be just beginning.

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I go for both. I started with the coins but thats a lot of hassle when its so easy to buy from Gold Money or GBS.LSE

The coins are to keep perhaps until my last remaining years and the others are to take advantage of this gold bubble which seems to be just beginning.

good idea with the coins for your remaining years.

i'm thinking along the lines of having loads of coins and f@ckall else for my retirement

(when things get bad cash a coin in )

but as for buying coins just now ?

if gold did tumble i would want out fairly sharp

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good idea with the coins for your remaining years.

i'm thinking along the lines of having loads of coins and f@ckall else for my retirement

(when things get bad cash a coin in )

but as for buying coins just now ?

if gold did tumble i would want out fairly sharp

isn't that a bit of a contradiction....loads of coins for you retirement but if you buy them now and the price drops you'll sell immediately?

I agree with the retirement plan though. Collect a load, have little or no savings by 65 (or 75 more like) and claim your entitlement from the state. Buy an ounce a month now and sell an ounce a month when you're older

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isn't that a bit of a contradiction....loads of coins for you retirement but if you buy them now and the price drops you'll sell immediately?

I agree with the retirement plan though. Collect a load, have little or no savings by 65 (or 75 more like) and claim your entitlement from the state. Buy an ounce a month now and sell an ounce a month when you're older

Totally agree with you guys. The coins are for long term whatever happens to gold now and the allocated gold is for getting out fast when the time is right in the next few years. Later on pile into coins and fackall else for retirement is also my plan too.

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isn't that a bit of a contradiction....loads of coins for you retirement but if you buy them now and the price drops you'll sell immediately?

I agree with the retirement plan though. Collect a load, have little or no savings by 65 (or 75 more like) and claim your entitlement from the state. Buy an ounce a month now and sell an ounce a month when you're older

sorry what i meant was :

if i was going to invest in gold for the short term/next couple of years?

i would buy shares or goldmoney etc

but in the future when my housing situation is sorted this is probably a good plan

sorry for the missunderstanding!

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A breif look at the history of investing shows nothing rises indefinetly

how long hs gold spent >700 dollars in the last 25 years ?

anyone who thinks this rise is going to the moon is sadly deluded.

monetarism is back! and rates are going to go up up and away :)

save the money TTRTRates!

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The RAPID PACE of increase, justifies taking some risk of market correction

Proven to be correct beyond doubt.

Doc, do you see a point, in the future,where it will be worth holding bullion itself?

What, if anything, would convince you to do so?

FWIW, I'm at the point in my little doom and gloom mind where I'd rather hold the yellow stuff in my sweaty palms. I'm even staying out of the allocated account route - as it may boil down to someone else's promise to pay you your gold. (paranoid perhaps but there you have it).

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I might hold some gold: 5%-10%?

If i thought I had a safe place to hold it.

But that will await later in the cycle.

Ther other p[oint that I failed to make clearly was:

If I buy a 30cent stock at 25 cents, I have a 5cents cushion already,

and that may give some down side protection

That was something I always wanted to ask you as well. You have already mentioned roughly the amount of personal wealth you have, and my own isn't even 1/10th of that I'm sure. You've done it by trading in a cautious, very well informed way and I assume, therefore, that the sums you play with on a daily basis aren't that large.

Are you really growing your wealth (I mean as a percentage of the whole) at a rate greater than anything you understand to be the rate at which it is being devalued, or likely to be devalued in the near future, accounting for the fact that at some point you may want bullion at the increased price that is being asked for it? Ever done a calculation based on your own earnings and how long you stay out of bullion ownership to know when the best changeover point would be ?

So you either don't believe in the apocalyptic chain of events that others on here suggest will happen ? Or perhaps you think we're all ahead of the curve and there's plenty of breathing space ?

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therefore, that the sums you play with on a daily basis aren't that large.

I don't think so somehow AF. Risk is a strange thing to define when trading (and I make a distinction here from investing). I'd guess that Dr Bubb has, what we would call, large sums to play with on a daily basis.

Even the likes of myself (though not at the mo) punts a fair whack. (IF I'm as sure as I can be about something).

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A breif look at the history of investing shows nothing rises indefinetly

how long hs gold spent >700 dollars in the last 25 years ?

anyone who thinks this rise is going to the moon is sadly deluded.

monetarism is back! and rates are going to go up up and away :)

save the money TTRTRates!

You forget we have not had quite the energy crisis we now have. We have never faced a peak in the supply in a critical commodity before. In the past there was always been something better to move on to. This time there is nothing to progress on to after [cheap, abundant] oil. It may be invented tomorrow, but that would not alter the consequences of Peak Oil, due to a) the time required to develop and build up an installed park of the new technology, B) the difficult investment environment when energy prices are high. We could discover a new Saudi tomorrow and it would not stop PO, it would just fatten the "tail".

I see PO as being THE critical factor that is going to drive this gold/silver bull. The various problems in the world's financial system don't help, but the rising price of oil will be the main factor underlying all that happens.

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You forget we have not had quite the energy crisis we now have. We have never faced a peak in the supply in a critical commodity before. In the past there was always been something better to move on to. This time there is nothing to progress on to after [cheap, abundant] oil. It may be invented tomorrow, but that would not alter the consequences of Peak Oil, due to a) the time required to develop and build up an installed park of the new technology, B) the difficult investment environment when energy prices are high. We could discover a new Saudi tomorrow and it would not stop PO, it would just fatten the "tail".

I see PO as being THE critical factor that is going to drive this gold/silver bull. The various problems in the world's financial system don't help, but the rising price of oil will be the main factor underlying all that happens.

dunno, I have freinds who work for BP and they don't exactly seem to be heralding in a new PO era, such and such field has just been discovered and that has more oil than the north sea.... etc

venezuala and the 100 years of oil sands?

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dunno, I have freinds who work for BP and they don't exactly seem to be heralding in a new PO era, such and such field has just been discovered and that has more oil than the north sea.... etc

venezuala and the 100 years of oil sands?

I work in the energy industry too. It is true that there is not a lot of awareness about possible shortages, nothing is coming down through the MIS or anything.

Some people were talking about Peak Oil in the late 1990s. Campbell and Laherrere published a paper in Science predicting a peak in production in 2007. They were not alone, but of course the cocept of Peak Oil has little public profile. My own perception was that the world always had 30 years' oil, and when that fell to 25 they just went out and found some more. Probably most people would assume the same thing. I came across the Peak Oil concept by accident whilst looking for something else, and I experienced an "of course! why did I never think of that!" moment. A problem is the talk of "running out of oil". This is nonsense, but it switches people off and maybe prevents them enquiring into what may be happening.

In the 1960s and 1970s, a few folk published papers predicting a production peak about now. I supose they were just seen as speculative, too couched in academic caution to worth bothering about. Sir David Barran, the Chairman of Shell in the early 1970s, also forecast that global production would peak in this decade. Despite that kind of thing, very few have really stopped to think about it.

On discoveries, there have been none of any significance since the 1970s (Cantarell, which has peaked and is now in decline).

Tar sands and oil shales are being touted, but are unlikely ever to be exploited in any great degree because of the resources required to extract what is actually quite a low quality product. For instance, in Alberta they are using large amounts of potable water and natural gas to produce low quality crude. This process has been described as "turning gold into lead".

It will be a feature of the evolving energy debate that we will understand that the existence of a resource does not make it available to us. Aluminium is one of the commonest metals in the Earth's crust, it is far commoner than iron, but aluminium costs far more than steel to produce because the extraction process requires great energy. That is why countries like Iceland are major Al producers; they have access to abundant cheap electricity from geothermal power plant.

So be wary of tall tales being spun about low quality energy resources. There is a good reason why we have never bothered to use them until now.

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I work in the energy industry too. It is true that there is not a lot of awareness about possible shortages, nothing is coming down through the MIS or anything.

Some people were talking about Peak Oil in the late 1990s. Campbell and Laherrere published a paper in Science predicting a peak in production in 2007. They were not alone, but of course the cocept of Peak Oil has little public profile. My own perception was that the world always had 30 years' oil, and when that fell to 25 they just went out and found some more. Probably most people would assume the same thing. I came across the Peak Oil concept by accident whilst looking for something else, and I experienced an "of course! why did I never think of that!" moment. A problem is the talk of "running out of oil". This is nonsense, but it switches people off and maybe prevents them enquiring into what may be happening.

In the 1960s and 1970s, a few folk published papers predicting a production peak about now. I supose they were just seen as speculative, too couched in academic caution to worth bothering about. Sir David Barran, the Chairman of Shell in the early 1970s, also forecast that global production would peak in this decade. Despite that kind of thing, very few have really stopped to think about it.

On discoveries, there have been none of any significance since the 1970s (Cantarell, which has peaked and is now in decline).

Tar sands and oil shales are being touted, but are unlikely ever to be exploited in any great degree because of the resources required to extract what is actually quite a low quality product. For instance, in Alberta they are using large amounts of potable water and natural gas to produce low quality crude. This process has been described as "turning gold into lead".

It will be a feature of the evolving energy debate that we will understand that the existence of a resource does not make it available to us. Aluminium is one of the commonest metals in the Earth's crust, it is far commoner than iron, but aluminium costs far more than steel to produce because the extraction process requires great energy. That is why countries like Iceland are major Al producers; they have access to abundant cheap electricity from geothermal power plant.

So be wary of tall tales being spun about low quality energy resources. There is a good reason why we have never bothered to use them until now.

I plain don't know about peak oil timing, but..........

There are many "new" sources of oil comming on line:

Use of condensate in distiller feed.

Stranded gas plants. (I'm know a collegue trying to wangle a job on one new (completed) project).

Various hydrocracking processes.

Exploration advances etc.

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