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delite1

Ten Reasons Why It's All Going To Go Horribly Wrong

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We were reading this sort of stuff ages ago and still nothing much has happened to trigger a HPC. Has he forgot that GDP and the economy are improving? I'm certain the BoE will act just as quickly as they did last time and reduce IRs at the first sign of trouble.

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Good points by Jeff there. I bet he's a HPC lurker.

He does seem to be doesn't he.

When are the latest bankruptcy figures out then?

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excellent article, but we really should stop doing journalists work for them!

(although I must admit that the relentless and upfront bearishness had me thinking "hmm good time to buy a house") :P

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We were reading this sort of stuff ages ago and still nothing much has happened to trigger a HPC. Has he forgot that GDP and the economy are improving? I'm certain the BoE will act just as quickly as they did last time and reduce IRs at the first sign of trouble.

'course they will and everything is really good so they can put up the rates 'cause everyone can afford them easy, isnt it great to be in such a wonderful boom era, or is it all in our silly minds?

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Good stuff from Mr Randall and the Telegraph - Agree WL, he does look as though he's a HPC lurker!

GS you say that GDP is improving, how much of that is down to government borrowing?

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I believe that reported real GDP growth is calculated as nominal GDP growth less reported inflation.

If the reported inflation is hedonically, seasonally adjusted to produce low acceptable core numbers, then reported real GDP growth will be higher by a proportionate amount.

Simplistic example: nominal GDP growth 6%, reported inflation 2% reported real GDP growth 4%. Very good you might think, miracle economy nicely chugging along.

But if this was actually nominal GDP growth 6%, actual real inflation 5%, actual GDP growth 1%...... Not so good...

Now which version would you think the politicians and the politicised civil service would like you to believe?

I would suggest that using substitution adjustments & geometric weighting depreciating Chinese consumer goods prices is not a sensible long term strategy.

Petrol up, food up, energy up, water up, taxes up, "core inflation" steady. Unlikely.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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