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cgnao

Gold Is Screaming Danger

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Forget Iran, which is a smoke screen. I have solid reasons to believe that we are in the early stages of a run on the US dollar and consequent global financial turmoil.

Protect yourselves.

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Forget Iran, which is a smoke screen. I have solid reasons to believe that we are in the early stages of a run on the US dollar and consequent global financial turmoil.

Protect yourselves.

and the reasons are?

Not that I'm doubting you I just want to see if they are the same reasons I have.

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Forget Iran, which is a smoke screen. I have solid reasons to believe that we are in the early stages of a run on the US dollar and consequent global financial turmoil.

Protect yourselves.

But are you suggesting that people should buy at $670 an ounce ??

I've got 15% in Gold and my last purchase wasn't too long ago. I could consume any profit I have so far made in the spread on Gold and sleep easy knowing I can resell for no loss with a small %safety margin. But buying at 670 / ounce is insane isn't it ?

Any other buyers on here (old hands) like to comment ?

AF.

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Guest Riser

Gold and Silver are rocking and rolling Tonight - somat's up B)

Ex-Fed Chief Volcker: Most Dangerous Economy Ever

Some focal points of his speech:

In regard to the U.S. economy, Volcker sees "disturbing trends: huge imbalances, disequilibria, risks..."

He says these are the most dangerous economic conditions he has ever seen - and, he notes, he has seen "quite a lot." Though businesses are rebuilding their financial reserves, in only a few years, the federal deficit

has offset all that savings.Home ownership has become a vehicle for borrowing rather than a means of financial security...............

......Volcker says "I don't know whether change will come with a bang or a whimper, whether sooner or later. But as things stand, it is more likely than not that it will be financial crises rather than policy foresight that will force the change."

Edited by Riser

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Only one thing will kill gold, and that is positive real interest rates. Unfortunately the global economy is so addicted to debt that such a measure would destroy it and send the entire world into the mother of all depressions.

Since the infamous M3 announcement in november last year it is evident, and gold is confirming it, that inflationary policy with increasingly negative real rates has been chosen. Central bankers will only resort to positive real rates when faced with meltdown of the international fiat currency system.

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Only one thing will kill gold, and that is positive real interest rates. Unfortunately the global economy is so addicted to debt that such a measure would destroy it and send the entire world into the mother of all depressions.

Since the infamous M3 announcement in november last year it is evident, and gold is confirming it, that inflationary policy with increasingly negative real rates has been chosen. Central bankers will only resort to positive real rates when faced with meltdown of the international fiat currency system.

You mean base rates higher than GENUINE inflation / increase in money supply? I suppose that depends on what you believe genuine inflation is and where it will go.

There's a risk involved Cgnao. And that risk has to be balanced against any REAL risk to my capital, spread thinly across many financial institutions and some with national savings. If someone said that I could double my money overnight with almost ZERO risk, I'd dive in... but that's not the case. Again and again I ask... you're not just risk managing are you? You're speculating, right? I'd personally be happy seeing what I've saved in cash buy the house it could have bought 7 years ago... Products such as inflation-linked savings certificates would probably protect the masses from the worst of any inflation... and I have some Gold now - but the next sum of money I potentially play with would be around a year's salary (net) and that's a frightening prospect to me. Do you suggest I pile it on Gold now at $670 an ounce? Rewind to justa few weeks ago and everyone was saying $560 was looking "toppy". Or do you really think we're at the gates of apocalyptic event?

I wish I had bigger b*lls.

AF.

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Products such as inflation-linked savings certificates would probably protect the masses from the worst of any inflation...

Not really, they are linked to an artificial measure of inflation (RPI) which although arguably not as fudged as CPI still understates the true inflation picture.

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Guest Riser

You mean base rates higher than GENUINE inflation / increase in money supply? I suppose that depends on what you believe genuine inflation is and where it will go.

There's a risk involved Cgnao. And that risk has to be balanced against any REAL risk to my capital, spread thinly across many financial institutions and some with national savings. If someone said that I could double my money overnight with almost ZERO risk, I'd dive in... but that's not the case. Again and again I ask... you're not just risk managing are you? You're speculating, right? I'd personally be happy seeing what I've saved in cash buy the house it could have bought 7 years ago... Products such as inflation-linked savings certificates would probably protect the masses from the worst of any inflation... and I have some Gold now - but the next sum of money I potentially play with would be around a year's salary (net) and that's a frightening prospect to me. Do you suggest I pile it on Gold now at $670 an ounce? Rewind to justa few weeks ago and everyone was saying $560 was looking "toppy". Or do you really think we're at the gates of apocalyptic event?

I wish I had bigger b*lls.

AF.

Its much easier sitting on your hands during a correction after you have seen your initial investment rise 30%, when you are newly invested and just starting to cover your spread you feel every dollar as if it is being wrenched out of your pocket.

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If someone said that I could double my money overnight with almost ZERO risk, I'd dive in... but that's not the case. Again and again I ask... you're not just risk managing are you? You're speculating, right?

I sadly see that I failed to convey my message.

It's not speculation, not about doubling my money (and that of those I am helping). It's about preserving its purchasing power and not seeing it inflated to zilch.

I sit on a 100% position in gold, mostly bought at bargain basement prices which will never ever be seen again, but as far as I am concerned I have not made a profit. Gold is not increasing in value. It's rather paper currencies and assets denominated in paper currencies being debased.

You guys holding cash and paper assets now, in these market conditions, are running the biggest financial risk of all without realising.

Learn from history:

"Lenin was certainly right, there is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." - John Maynard Keynes

Protect yourself.

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I dont' know what to say other than simply:

I've been waiting for some kind of pullback since december when everyone said it'll settle. But it didn't.

Got in at the end of march and last week. Already made up the spreads.

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NGNao, don't you find it fascinating that this soaring of gold is not getting an iota of media notice? Not even here in the UK, where the get-rich-quick mentality is more highly developed than most countries (actually, it pretty much is our economy these days).

There still appears to be little public awareness of what is going on. This means the price must be going up because of big-time private investors, institutions and governments. Have you (or anybody else) got any more info on this? Actually, I am astonished by just how little awareness of anything there is amongst my working colleagues. The mainstream does a very good job of keeping them ignorant.

I am anguishing over whether to get some more or wait for a pull-back. The trouble is, like others I've lost out waiting for a pull-back that hasn't happened.

Imagine what will happen when Joe Public get onto this.

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I bought in November last year, having pulled 20 years worth of accessable savings (not all my saving by means, just the easily accessable stuff) out of the Stock Market. Since then I have been saving hard into cash as well. I could transfer those crash savings into Gold, but Gold has higher risks associated with it, higher than I am prepared to carry on all my accessable savings.

I moved into Gold because I wanted higher returns (hence greater risk) but I also wanted to spread the risks as I have been hurt by Stock Market Crashes before (in the sence that had I cashed in at the time I would have lost big time).

I agree with many on here that Gold is heading to new heights. Now that the $ is under pressure Gold will rise fast (in $ terms, not so fast in £ terms). That may hit the headlines and there was a post a few days ago that said that the US networks are now reporting the value of Gold on a daily basis. I think there is a real possibility that some of that huge liquidity that is slopping around the markets will head into Gold, if it does $1000 / tr oz could be an under estimate!

Calling the top is going to be tough, and I will admit, it scares me somewhat. This is the first time I have played the market is a serious manner, Twenty Years worth of savings is big money regardless of the amount. (My wife will kill me if I loose it :P ).

In short, Gold is where the big returns are going to be, but there are big risks. The market will move up pretty quick, but it could turn in a moment, hence why I am spreading my savings across the markets.

Edited by FTBagain

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It's about preserving its purchasing power and not seeing it inflated to zilch.

You guys holding cash and paper assets now, in these market conditions, are running the biggest financial risk of all without realising.

Help please Cgnao

As a UK earner and spender why will my paper devalue if there is inflation in the system and interest rates have to rise here and EU to keep it under control.

Not clear on why my asset base will not be preserved.

:unsure:

FP

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I sadly see that I failed to convey my message.

The really depressing thing is 99%+ of the population fail to grasp that if the currency is debasing, it means that every abstract paper investment is crashing in real terms.

Unless you're making 30%+ a year on your stocks, shares, t-bonds, other paper investments. They are not holding their own.

The media is demonises gold as a 'barbarus relic', that only 'stupid' people would invest in it.

Meanwhile a $200 trillion global derivatives bubble is a wonderful thing we should be thankful for, created by those clever banks.

The elites are getting ready for peak oil. Look what they're doing, they're taking care of themselves. They're going to leave us to hang.

Protect yourself now, before it's too late.

Edited by Dr Doom

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The really depressing thing is 99%+ of the population fail to grasp that if the currency is debasing

But of course this has been done time again throughout the ages (Henry VIII's 'coppernose'), if people actually noticed then they couldn't get away with it. The 70's were interesting, people noticed the affects but not the cause... Nixon closing the gold window and debasing en masse.

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Its much easier sitting on your hands during a correction after you have seen your initial investment rise 30%, when you are newly invested and just starting to cover your spread you feel every dollar as if it is being wrenched out of your pocket.

Quite!

Cgnao - if, right now, you had your paper money still sat in a bank somewhere, would you buy today at $675 an ounce ? How much would you spend ? All of it? And by all of it, I assume you;re taking about a five figure sum ? Or more ?

Here's an analogy to the apocalyptic "Peak Oil" (et al) scenario people use for Gold prices. Moore's law. Doubling of the number of transistors on a chip every 18 months (at its peak). How many years have Intel not been able to make chips in any commercially viable quantity that run faster than 3.x GHZ ??? 3 years now ? "End of the western economy as we know it, they said". What happens? Chip designers and manufacturers revive the "must do more in parallel" philosophy and just keep going.. dual core Pentiums, etc, etc. No apocalyptic outcome.

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What happens? Chip designers and manufacturers revive the "must do more in parallel" philosophy and just keep going.. dual core Pentiums, etc, etc. No apocalyptic outcome.

It is troublesome though, if you cannot shrink the dies faster than you're doubling them then eventually you're on an unsustainable trend.

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l chucked this years isa allowance (7k) straight into Meryll Lynch Gold fund. Couldnt get the cheque posted fast enough as far aas l was concerned.

I was talking with a friend about gold a year ago, but despite missing out on those gains l still did it. Why? Well l have grave doubts about the true value of my cash holdings, especially for the future and l think we are in for some interesting times (forget Iran).

I simply trusted my instincts and acted accordingly. If you really believe then you'd buy gold. I've also tried to get into some silver juniors as despite appearing to be more subject to market manipulation it seems rather low in comparison to gold. I wonder how long "they" can keep a lid on it.

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l chucked this years isa allowance (7k) straight into Meryll Lynch Gold fund. Couldnt get the cheque posted fast enough as far aas l was concerned.

I think the ML Gold Fund holds a fair few miners, even the juniors, so you should have exposure anyway. Of course the miners hold an advantage over holding bullion, there are yields!

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I think the ML Gold Fund holds a fair few miners, even the juniors, so you should have exposure anyway. Of course the miners hold an advantage over holding bullion, there are yields!

They also have operational risk. Which is not insubstantial when you think mining is a fairly energy

intensive activity. And currency instability and general uncertainty makes any business difficult to run.

I'd also be concerned about market manipulation.

Six times as much paper gold out there than physical gold, in a very similar way to fractional reserve banking.

I expect nothing less than total systemic collapse.

:blink:

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Guest Riser

"Gold is screaming danger"

Probably - But it's screaming "overbought" at the moment.

I think golds sudden drop from $675 then bounce off $660 Today shows the strength of this gold bull. It was an ideal opportunity for the bears to punish gold but they were unable to drive it down with any momentum.

Todays drop in Silver was more spectacular as the large players eagerly grabbed silver from frightened small investors to cover their shorts. I suspect we will see more of this action over the comming months before they have loaded up their longs and are ready to let gold and silver continue their rally.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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