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Realistbear

Telegraph: M P C Will Hike Next Time

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm.../ixcitytop.html

Strong housing ends rate cut hopes

By Edmund Conway (Filed: 02/05/2006)

Hopes for another cut in borrowing costs are rapidly disappearing,
amid fresh figures showing that mortgage lending is soaring, consumers have taken to the shops again and even the long-forgotten manufacturing sector is back on form.
Alan Clarke, UK economist at BNP Paribas in London, said: "The unequivocal strength of this latest set of data is unlikely to cause any change in interest rates at this week's meeting but the balance of opinion on the MPC must surely be moving towards
favouring the
next move being up,
not down
."

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Why do these report keep talking about rate cuts. All the economic data is now moving strongly to the upside. There is no case for a cut anymore and there wasn't since about February. The real soft data came before Christmas.

All economic data is now pointing in one direction, except CPI. The Bank of E will move irrespective of CPI IMO.

However, if CPI starts to move up, the Bank will have to start taking a more aggressive stance. That could, literally, change overnight.

When will CPI start to move up?

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Why do these report keep talking about rate cuts. All the economic data is now moving strongly to the upside. There is no case for a cut anymore and there wasn't since about February. The real soft data came before Christmas.

All economic data is now pointing in one direction, except CPI. The Bank of E will move irrespective of CPI IMO.

However, if CPI starts to move up, the Bank will have to start taking a more aggressive stance. That could, literally, change overnight.

When will CPI start to move up?

It would appear that the CPI will never go up as they keep removing items that are inflationary and replacing them with items they know will fall in price as the market saturates (MP3 players are a good example). The most obvious deletion was the TV license as they know that there will be a big 27% bump to cover infrastructure costs connected with going digital. IF the BoE was truly independent I think they would most certainly ignore the CPI as being mere political manipulation.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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