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sam

Mass Repossesions Just Will Not Happen Under Labour

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Like many on this board i believe there will be a serious property crash/correction, i would have put my money on the early stages of a correction at around Spring 2005 a few years back, that prediction has obviously now been proved incorrect.

Still, nothing has changed, the one big deciding factor in all of this is DEBT, and nothing has changed there, the only thing that has changed in my view is the timing.

I have had a look at a few different factors on why and how this correction could be held off, the main reason being resilence on the part of the lenders/government, and even the homeowners, after all they are British. I have a date of 2010 marked in now(same as the one penciled in by Harrison), with the possibilty that it could take longer. I have also read this book by Harrison, and even he has calculated the cycle as being 18 years on average, there have been times when it has been as long as 24 years.

But none of this matters as much as the politics that are involved here, there could well be dozens of major problems within the economy, some would argue that there are with good reason. Maybe the only right thing to do is let the market correct itself, live by the sword and die by the sword and all that.

But has anyone on here thought of the implications of having people thrown out of their homes during a reigning Labour Goverment.

We(Hpc) might well be sitting wating for s*** to hit the fan, we could well be the sensible wise ones, but the fact is that we are a minority. If familys start getting thrown out of their homes during a Labour Government then they will stand for nothing, all of the reasons they were created for in the first place will die.

Many argue that Nu labour today act like Tories anyway, this would finally prove it, i do not think it will happen, Labour will not throw familys on the street, we will have to wait for the Tories to get back in power, they will do what it takes to fix this mess, but i am afraid that is not going to happen untill 2010.

Sam

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Amongst other things, NuLab stand for:

Destroying NHS dentistry.

Pretty much bankrupting NHS hospitals.

Pricing kids out of university.

Pricing an entire generation out of the housing market.

Throwing unskilled and low-skilled workers onto the dole to be replaced by cheap immigrants.

Destroying long-cherished freedoms and turning the UK into a police state.

What makes you think they'd give a crap about reposessions?

Edited by MarkG

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Amongst other things, NuLab stand for:

Destroying NHS dentistry.

Pretty much bankrupting NHS hospitals.

Pricing kids out of university.

Pricing an entire generation out of the housing market.

Throwing unskilled and low-skilled workers onto the dole to be replaced by cheap immigrants.

Destroying long-cherished freedoms and turning the UK into a police state.

What makes you think they'd give a crap about reposessions?

Hi Mark

all of what you said is true, but there is so much grey area in your examples, we say crap, Blair says it's great, the sort of stuff that can be spun.

The one thing that he cannot spin though, is familys being kicked out of their homes, but we shall see, maybe you are right.

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its not soemthing a party can control.

this is between the banks and the borrowers.

soon they will realise theve been had and they have bought the exact same houses as before,

only for 3 times the price.???

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But what are you really saying Sam?

hes saying that like many on this board i believe there will be a serious property crash/correction, i would have put my money on the early stages of a correction at around Spring 2005 a few years back, that prediction has obviously now been proved incorrect.Still, nothing has changed, the one big deciding factor in all of this is DEBT, and nothing has changed there, the only thing that has changed in my view is the timing.

I have had a look at a few different factors on why and how this correction could be held off, the main reason being resilence on the part of the lenders/government, and even the homeowners, after all they are British. I have a date of 2010 marked in now(same as the one penciled in by Harrison), with the possibilty that it could take longer. I have also read this book by Harrison, and even he has calculated the cycle as being 18 years on average, there have been times when it has been as long as 24 years.But none of this matters as much as the politics that are involved here, there could well be dozens of major problems within the economy, some would argue that there are with good reason. Maybe the only right thing to do is let the market correct itself, live by the sword and die by the sword and all that.But has anyone on here thought of the implications of having people thrown out of their homes during a reigning Labour Goverment.We(Hpc) might well be sitting wating for s*** to hit the fan, we could well be the sensible wise ones, but the fact is that we are a minority. If familys start getting thrown out of their homes during a Labour Government then they will stand for nothing, all of the reasons they were created for in the first place will die.Many argue that Nu labour today act like Tories anyway, this would finally prove it, i do not think it will happen, Labour will not throw familys on the street, we will have to wait for the Tories to get back in power, they will do what it takes to fix this mess, but i am afraid that is not going to happen untill 2010.

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New Labour have decided to swap their emblem (the red rose) for a newer more apt one, a condom.

The condom exemplifies New Labour values in a more meaningful way:

It ruins productivity.

It decimates the next generation.

It’s involved in illicit acts.

It is a collecting place for the ineffective.

It makes you feel secure whilst you are slowly being f*cked.

.

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What can the government do? Getting a reposession is not an easy option for a bank/mortgage provider, they have to really believe they are not going to get the debt back. If that one avenue is taken away from them to get some of their money back then they are just going to reduce their borrowing even further - which just results in an even bigger crash.

The crash happens once:

a) Sentiment changes, ie people stop spending more than they would like to because they think someone else wll buy it for 10% more in 2 years time

B) Banks/Building socities stop offering people enough money to be able to buy houses they can not really afford

c) People stop being prepared to put themself into huge levels of debt (this partly links to a but is also relevant to rising prices of other good etc)

d) Unemployment goes up, less jobs, less potential debt

etc.

The goverment can try and stop some of these things happening, particularly unemployment by just employing people to do pointless jobs but then they have to raise taxes further which affects c).

At the end of the day, once sentiment changes the market will crash. When it will happen no one knows it may be another 5 years - there may be a sudden cause and happen in a few months. All that is known is it will happen sometime.

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New Labour have decided to swap their emblem (the red rose) for a newer more apt one, a condom.

The condom exemplifies New Labour values in a more meaningful way:

It ruins productivity.

It decimates the next generation.

It’s involved in illicit acts.

It is a collecting place for the ineffective.

It makes you feel secure whilst you are slowly being f*cked.

.

:lol:, or maybe I should just cry at how true that is.

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New Labour have decided to swap their emblem (the red rose) for a newer more apt one, a condom.

The condom exemplifies New Labour values in a more meaningful way:

It ruins productivity.

It decimates the next generation.

It’s involved in illicit acts.

It is a collecting place for the ineffective.

It makes you feel secure whilst you are slowly being f*cked.

.

:lol::lol:

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What can the government do? Getting a reposession is not an easy option for a bank/mortgage provider, they have to really believe they are not going to get the debt back.

Good question Padders, and i am glad you brought it up.

Turfing familys out of their home will become political if it starts happening in a big way, if it does start getting big, they(nu-labor) will do what they allways do, punish the sensible.

Under Nu labor 17 year single mothers of two kids go whinning to the council that they have no room, they are moved to bigger homes WE PICK THE BILL UP.

Big fat bloated wasters who sit at home puffing 40 a day and living on currys and fish and chips claim to be disabled because they can hardly breath or walk, then given a lazy twit scooter and a licence to sit at home and put their feet up, and again, WE PICK UP THE BILL.

Over the last couple of years homeowners have taken on as much debt as they can get away with, they have the time of their life living on borrowed money untill the day it starts getting to tough to pay back, the sensible ones stayed out of the spending orgy, the sad thingt is that we are the only ones fit and able enough to clear this mess up, and again WE PICK THE BILL UP

I believe the Banks will use repossession as the last resort.

If the property is the residential home of the debtor.

all depends on the situation.

But if it’s a investment... well that’s different!!

sam, what do you think (numbers) constitutes mass repossessions?

repossessions rose by 70% in 2005, rising to 10,250 homes

Hi burnt.

When the average man on the street says " I know of someone......"

I do not believe in numbers anymore, just what i see with my own two eyes(had this argument with Kingsomebodyorother the other day).

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New Labour have decided to swap their emblem (the red rose) for a newer more apt one, a condom.

The condom exemplifies New Labour values in a more meaningful way:

It ruins productivity.

It decimates the next generation.

It’s involved in illicit acts.

It is a collecting place for the ineffective.

It makes you feel secure whilst you are slowly being f*cked.

.

:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

so true

Could NL stop a housepricecrash?

Yes I think they could. We have had 'working tax credit' and 'child tax credit'. If the sh1t hits the fan then don't be surprised if 'housing tax credit' isn't introduced on the pretence that it is helping first time buyers and young families (in reality it will be to reward reckless homeowneres up to their eyes in debt). We - the sensible ones will pay for that and our ability to buy a home will decrease as our tax bills rise.

I am not saying this will happen. Peresonally I think NL will deny any housepricecrash is happening even if thousands of families our being thrown out of their homes - they will blame the media - the banks etc but will deny it is a problem.

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Guest Baffled_by_it_all

Isn't there a graph for the number of insolvencies since 1997? Aren't they going up?

If you believe the government will lay a parental hand on your shoulder and stop you going to the poor house you're wrong. Personal finance is about personal responsibility.

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Under Nu labor 17 year single mothers of two kids go whinning to the council that they have no room, they are moved to bigger homes WE PICK THE BILL UP.

Big fat bloated wasters who sit at home puffing 40 a day and living on currys and fish and chips claim to be disabled because they can hardly breath or walk, then given a lazy twit scooter and a licence to sit at home and put their feet up, and again, WE PICK UP THE BILL.

Over the last couple of years homeowners have taken on as much debt as they can get away with, they have the time of their life living on borrowed money untill the day it starts getting to tough to pay back, the sensible ones stayed out of the spending orgy, the sad thingt is that we are the only ones fit and able enough to clear this mess up, and again WE PICK THE BILL UP

It's already very hard to get a repossesion, I can't imagine them making it harder. The government will be very happy to find lots of other people to blame for the state I don't think they will accept any responsibility and thus won't have any reason to solve the problem (of course there is no solution).

But as I said, if they do try and fix the problem there is no way they can without screwing over the banks. If that happens then the banks will loan even less money at marginal cases (and cause them to raise interest rates on current mortgages to take account of higher risks) which will further deepen the crash.

All the government can do is create fake jobs, but given the current state of the public purse this is going to be almost impossible because then less money could be spent on health care etc. And at the end of the day, only 1 or 2% maximm are ever going to be resposessed (and unlikely even that high), and this istn't a big voting block anyway.

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Guest Guy_Montag

I remember hearing that some banks started repossession orders during the last crash, but only repossessed once the houses had risen in value enough to pay off the debts.

Can anyone confirm or deny?

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Isn't there a graph for the number of insolvencies since 1997? Aren't they going up?

If you believe the government will lay a parental hand on your shoulder and stop you going to the poor house you're wrong. Personal finance is about personal responsibility.

Your statement gets my vote as the biggest load of cobblers on this site to date, i cannot even be bothered to counter your argument.

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Its just more VI spin from Sam ..

Any chance of expanding on your cryptic reply, or even better put your money where your big mouth is.

My Vested interest is in seeing property fall, i am willing to wager any person on this site that i am now renting under protest and have nothing to do with the property market.

Because i now want property to crash i have to automatically say YES YES YES YES, to every Bear argument on this board.

What is that has triggered your reply, the fact that i said that things might not kick off untill gone 2010, Labour might help "the poor souls in debt and facing repossession", sorry i am not copying your script.

How about this then, the property crash starts in the next few months, and there will be 2/3 million repossesed propertys that will be given away for peanuts, is that better.

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How about this then, the property crash starts in the next few months, and there will be 2/3 million repossesed propertys that will be given away for peanuts, is that better.

That's 10% of the housing stock, give or take. Are you suggesting that 10% of the population will be so indebted they won't be able to meet their mortgage on an IO basis, that there will be about a 3million increase in the numbers of unemployed and they won't be able to sell before repo time. And they won't be given away for peanuts, they will be sold at market rental yield multiples to either 'cash' buyers making money out of it or to foreign investors who have money to burn.

That simply won't happen - jobs won't tail off that dramatically, most people are not so stupidly indebted (though a fair few BTL monkeys and FTBs who bought recently will show in repo figures).

Oh and by 2010, I will have shifted 80% of the current balance of my mortgage (at base case scenarios), most of the other big borrowers I know are doing the same to give themselves a massive cushion. one of the reasons the high street is so quiet is that most sensible people are paying down their debt - it's just the [albeit] significant minority who are busy spending spending spending what they don't have... [or am I on Planet Zog again]

Edited by Rachman

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Guest Baffled_by_it_all

Put my money where my mouth is? I thought I was doing that by not getting a 5x salary mortgage.

So sam, what's the government going to do when people begin to reach a point where they can't pay their mortgage when they're overstretched with CC debt and their payments begin to go up.

Step in and give everyone mortgage relief? I'd just like to know what you think they're going to do...If there's going to be free money floating around I'll nip out and get in loads of debt this afternoon.

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Repossession through the years

There's a link to the CML statistics page CML stats and you need to select report AP4 which gives the figures from 1970 until 2005.

We're a long way off the 1992 peak of 68,540 but the current rate of increase is certainly cause for concern.

On Friday the latest figures will be published.

:)

sam I think that government interference in mortgage repossessions is unlikely, even though they are responsible jointly with the lenders for increasing the supply of money into the economy. The gamble that there will be an upturn in the economy cycle is on, but the bankers and government ministers aren't likely to end up repossessed if they get it wrong. Shame.

Edited by get real

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My theory is that Labour could well play a blinder and throw the next General Election (its started already - do you honestly believe any sane woman would admit to having a two year affair with good old Two Jags) by which point our "Miracle Economy" will have already started to slide.

Labour will then spend the next 4 years telling everyone that those nasty Tories are the ones to blame for the economy going to the wall with its accompanying unemployment and calling in of everyones debts.....

Its just a shame it is so long till the next election

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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