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kingofnowhere

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http://www.bba.org.uk/bba/jsp/polopoly.jsp?d=145&a=7114

And FWIW Previous March

	   Value	 Number2000		mar	 £5,255	75,7722001		mar	 £6,494	85,1042002		mar	 £8,231	97,0342003 		mar	 £6,232	72,8082004		mar	£10,682	97,8522005		Mar	 £8,185	64,3722006		Mar	£11,513	85,698

I'll revise up my estimate of BOE Approvals to 122K, on the back of these strong numbers

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http://www.bba.org.uk/bba/jsp/polopoly.jsp?d=145&a=7114

And FWIW Previous March

	   Value	 Number2000		mar	 £5,255	75,7722001		mar	 £6,494	85,1042002		mar	 £8,231	97,0342003 		mar	 £6,232	72,8082004		mar	£10,682	97,8522005		Mar	 £8,185	64,3722006		Mar	£11,513	85,698

I'll revise up my estimate of BOE Approvals to 122K, on the back of these strong numbers

We're only looking for evidence that supports the CRASH scenario here. Bullish posts will be seen for what they are, BULLISH!!!!

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We're only looking for evidence that supports the CRASH scenario here. Bullish posts will be seen for what they are, BULLISH!!!!

Could you try harder with the avatar please :) Far better to use one direct from a url...here you go try this for size....http://spacemanbob.com/blogger/forum_trolls.jpg

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2006

Mar £11,513 85,698[/code]

I'll revise up my estimate of BOE Approvals to 122K, on the back of these strong numbers

The amount is only high due to over-inflated house prices! B)

Just proof that prices are insane!

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This is worth bumping back to the top, becuase its the most important piece of news for the short term i.e next 3-4 months as relates to house prices.

These really are mega figures if you are looking for a boom in house prices - they really do under pin what just about everybody with an ounce of balance has been reporting that there are a lot more for sale and sold boards around.

The lending figures are very very strong and means we can expect some pretty robust price rises in the coming few months.

Add this to the strong figures relating to retail sales, expanding economic performance then a boom is on the cards.

I will grant you however, that it may make the BoE consider putting rates up, but all that will do is curb the growth that is clearly building up, but it won't make prices crash when things are going so well.

............ and is the £ crashing, NOPE .......... remember from just a few weeks a go when the mentalists were telling you the £ was going to crash because our economy was down the pan, and as soon as the Yanks raise interest rates above ours we were all doomed ... yeah right ! NOT !!!!!

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This is worth bumping back to the top, becuase its the most important piece of news for the short term i.e next 3-4 months as relates to house prices.

These really are mega figures if you are looking for a boom in house prices - they really do under pin what just about everybody with an ounce of balance has been reporting that there are a lot more for sale and sold boards around.

nothing selling at all in hgte and surrounding area - market is well and truely dead - rentals falling too

............ and is the £ crashing, NOPE .......... remember from just a few weeks a go when the mentalists were telling you the £ was going to crash because our economy was down the pan, and as soon as the Yanks raise interest rates above ours we were all doomed ... yeah right ! NOT !!!!!

i would probably be classed as a 'mentalist' but 2 weeks ago I posted that the £ had gone through 1.76$ and was about to go a lot higher - i'm very pleased to say it has

i think more than a few people are in for a shock, especially those on variable rate mortgages

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nothing selling at all in hgte and surrounding area - market is well and truely dead - rentals falling too

i would probably be classed as a 'mentalist' but 2 weeks ago I posted that the £ had gone through 1.76$ and was about to go a lot higher - i'm very pleased to say it has

i think more than a few people are in for a shock, especially those on variable rate mortgages

Pity the rest of Yorkshire is not like Harrogate then ! - 9% up YoY as a whole, Harrogate stands out like a sore thumb for some unknown reason.

Just checked my list, you are not on my list of mentalists - that term is reserved for real nutters, and they know who they are !

:lol:

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Pity the rest of Yorkshire is not like Harrogate then ! - 9% up YoY as a whole, Harrogate stands out like a sore thumb for some unknown reason.

Just checked my list, you are not on my list of mentalists - that term is reserved for real nutters, and they know who they are !

:lol:

i honestly believe hgte has reached the point where people just cant afford to pay any more - we seem to be at the point where the difference between 1 rung and the next is so great that even salary increases and built up equity can't help

having said that, i wasnt convinced bythe halifax's 9% drop - i did see a small drop, maybe 5% on roads such as dragon avenue which i know well, but i also think the lack of sales of houses over £300k had an impact, i.e. a slightly different mix

i'm glad i'm not on the nutters list although I do think IRs will go up next and a lot of people will be surprised

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We're only looking for evidence that supports the CRASH scenario here. Bullish posts will be seen for what they are, BULLISH!!!!

Even worse, some bears may see this as adding to their cause. IMO, this will probably lead to some serious HPI down the road, the BoE will probably have to start thinking about those rate rises soon.

Well, how many wanted to see evidence of a spring bounce? Here it is.

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This figure of 85k/month NSA for March from the BBA is surprisingly large and up 33% on the previous March. And as the BBA typically get between 58% and 65% of all lending for house purchase, and they are currently towards the lower part of that range, their figure of 85k/month would be consistent with the BoE announcing an eye-popping 140k NSA on Thursday, or, using a –11.5% March seasonal correction, somewhere close to 125k SA. :o

Obviously it can be converted into an implied annualised HPI as per previous threads.

Edited by spline

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Of course, this March 85k is the number of approvals for house purchase and excludes remortgaging or other secured lending. :)

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This is worth bumping back to the top, becuase its the most important piece of news for the short term i.e next 3-4 months as relates to house prices.

These really are mega figures if you are looking for a boom in house prices - they really do under pin what just about everybody with an ounce of balance has been reporting that there are a lot more for sale and sold boards around.

The lending figures are very very strong and means we can expect some pretty robust price rises in the coming few months.

Add this to the strong figures relating to retail sales, expanding economic performance then a boom is on the cards.

I will grant you however, that it may make the BoE consider putting rates up, but all that will do is curb the growth that is clearly building up, but it won't make prices crash when things are going so well.

I agree that this is a bullish indicator for the next few months. But you ought to see it for what it is - overheating. In the context of soaring oil and commodity prices, it is a dangerous development for the economy and the BoE are well aware of that.

Concern is growing in academic circles and think tanks about runaway money supply growth, and an opinion is starting to form that interest rates alone are an insufficient tool for controlling inflation - money supply must also be tackled.

The "shadow" MPC are already close to voting for a rise - 5 of them believe a rise will be necessary in the next few months, even if they are voting for no change.

One little rate cut managed to spark a revival in the housing market, on the belief that rates had reached their peak and were on the way down. What will the psychological impact of a rate rise be, not just on Joe Public but on the banks that have to decide how much money they are willing to lend?

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I agree that this is a bullish indicator for the next few months. But you ought to see it for what it is - overheating. In the context of soaring oil and commodity prices, it is a dangerous development for the economy and the BoE are well aware of that.

Concern is growing in academic circles and think tanks about runaway money supply growth, and an opinion is starting to form that interest rates alone are an insufficient tool for controlling inflation - money supply must also be tackled.

The "shadow" MPC are already close to voting for a rise - 5 of them believe a rise will be necessary in the next few months, even if they are voting for no change.

One little rate cut managed to spark a revival in the housing market, on the belief that rates had reached their peak and were on the way down. What will the psychological impact of a rate rise be, not just on Joe Public but on the banks that have to decide how much money they are willing to lend?

And this time the rate rises will not be for the sake of "tinkering" with the UK housing market they will be because of worldwide trends and the end of the carry trade.This will devastate the idea of cheap money.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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