Jason Posted May 2, 2006 Share Posted May 2, 2006 (edited) http://www.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30400-13521645,00.html Renewed confidence in the housing market is poised to boost property prices by 6% this year, it is being claimed. The Centre for Economics and Business Research said it had revised up its forecast for UK house price growth during 2006 from 4.4% in January. This follows the increase in confidence and sustained growth in the financial markets. Edited May 2, 2006 by Jason Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enworb Posted May 2, 2006 Share Posted May 2, 2006 http://www.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30400-13521645,00.html Renewed confidence in the housing market is poised to boost property prices by 6% this year, it is being claimed. The Centre for Economics and Business Research said it had revised up its forecast for UK house price growth during 2006 from 4.4% in January. This follows the increase in confidence and sustained growth in the financial markets. Confidence has definately returned but I think some areas will less of an increase and some even more than 6%. I can't see everyone agreeing with this though. Had you predicted -6% then you'd be a hero on this site Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Golden Shower Posted May 2, 2006 Share Posted May 2, 2006 Confidence has definately returned but I think some areas will less of an increase and some even more than 6%. I can't see everyone agreeing with this though. Had you predicted -6% then you'd be a hero on this site True. It's also worth noting that the CEBR reversed their forecasts from falls to rises. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warwickshire Lad Posted May 2, 2006 Share Posted May 2, 2006 Just as well that the next move in Interest Rates will be up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Golden Shower Posted May 2, 2006 Share Posted May 2, 2006 Just as well that the next move in Interest Rates will be up. Could be, but when? I don't think the BoE are in a hurry to move either way. It could be a year away, in which case HPI may have risen more and debt inflated away a bit. This would probably have no significant effect on HPI or the economy and could put the perma bear in a worse situation. Tough choices ahead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted May 2, 2006 Author Share Posted May 2, 2006 They don't really say where they expect this additional HPI to come from. They say they "expect stronger growth", is this in the economy? or housing market? The CEBR say there is more confidence, sure I would agree for now, but what will happen to confidence when HPI is not so high? It seems more of a 'hunch' than a sound well supported forecast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Converted Lurker Posted May 2, 2006 Share Posted May 2, 2006 Remind me again who are the CEBR and who in effect sponsors them? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Doom Posted May 2, 2006 Share Posted May 2, 2006 Remind me again who are the CEBR and who in effect sponsors them? You are so cynical. What makes you think it wasn't independent research that came to this conclusion? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Converted Lurker Posted May 2, 2006 Share Posted May 2, 2006 (edited) You are so cynical. What makes you think it wasn't independent research that came to this conclusion? Can you answer the question? Further, have you even read it? 11% over the next 3 years? Utter ******** based on what...er..."stock market doing well...high levels of 2 job/2 wage packets from the gutter employment, petrol will be 1.20 a gallon in 2007...." Edited May 2, 2006 by Converted Lurker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Fiddlesticks Posted May 2, 2006 Share Posted May 2, 2006 But it is predicting house price inflation will pick up again slightly in 2009 and 2010, with the average cost of a home in the UK breaking through the £200,000 threshold at the end of 2010. But according to Hometrack they broke through this threshold a couple of months ago! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingofnowhere Posted May 2, 2006 Share Posted May 2, 2006 But according to Hometrack they broke through this threshold a couple of months ago! Hi Fiddlesticks FWIW CEBR work on the average of the Nationwide and Halifax SA numbers, which was £166,044 at the start of the year, and is now approx £169K (thats putting Halifax as Flat this month) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cupidstunt Posted May 2, 2006 Share Posted May 2, 2006 Hi Fiddlesticks FWIW CEBR work on the average of the Nationwide and Halifax SA numbers, which was £166,044 at the start of the year, and is now approx £169K (thats putting Halifax as Flat this month) Wellcome back KON they've been missing you on TMF Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Fiddlesticks Posted May 2, 2006 Share Posted May 2, 2006 Hi Fiddlesticks FWIW CEBR work on the average of the Nationwide and Halifax SA numbers, which was £166,044 at the start of the year, and is now approx £169K (thats putting Halifax as Flat this month) Thanks KoN, presumably the Hometrack index is aslo higher partly because it's based on asking prices not selling prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingofnowhere Posted May 2, 2006 Share Posted May 2, 2006 Thanks KoN, presumably the Hometrack index is aslo higher partly because it's based on asking prices not selling prices. Hometrack is based on, I believe agreed sales price, so it will be slightly higher than the Haliwide based on approvals (I've never know a surveyor to up the agreed offer, they only seem to downgrade) Also IMHO Its higher just because of the mix adjustment they do, and the regional breakdown (Also the don't have Scotland and NI which would IMHO which would also help to explain their avergage price being higher) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HPCheese Posted May 2, 2006 Share Posted May 2, 2006 ...But it is predicting house price inflation will pick up again slightly in 2009 and 2010, with the average cost of a home in the UK breaking through the £200,000 threshold at the end of 2010. What makes them think they can see 4 years into the future of the housing market other than arrogance and stupidity? They might as well try to tell us next weeks lottery numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Baffled_by_it_all Posted May 2, 2006 Share Posted May 2, 2006 In think their long term forecast is a bit strange. Although the short-term forecast and the retail figures for Easter don't foster much hope. Luckily the amount of debt I'd be getting into is still punitive enough for me to stay out for the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seamaster Posted May 4, 2006 Share Posted May 4, 2006 What makes them think they can see 4 years into the future of the housing market other than arrogance and stupidity? Hang on a minute — isn't that exactly what the dittohead bears round here do? Or did I miss something? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Golden Shower Posted May 4, 2006 Share Posted May 4, 2006 Hang on a minute — isn't that exactly what the dittohead bears round here do? Or did I miss something? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warwickshire Lad Posted May 4, 2006 Share Posted May 4, 2006 By contrast, I am sticking to my -6% forecast (i pick the index) Halifax is +8% today so that's one hell of a gap... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Herbert Posted May 4, 2006 Share Posted May 4, 2006 And interest rates can't possibly be raised today by Nu Labour Scum, not on local election day!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted May 4, 2006 Author Share Posted May 4, 2006 Halifax is +8% today so that's one hell of a gap... I wonder what the Land Reg will be. If you look at: http://www.landreg.gov.uk/propertyprice/in...datayear=0&rq=1 (updated 02/05/06) you can compare it against the BBC HPI (from the previous land reg): http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...html/houses.stm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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