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Jason

Home Prices Hike Forecast

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http://www.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30400-13521645,00.html

Renewed confidence in the housing market is poised to boost property prices by 6% this year, it is being claimed.
The Centre for Economics and Business Research said it had revised up its forecast for UK house price growth during 2006 from 4.4% in January.
This follows the increase in confidence and sustained growth in the financial markets.
Edited by Jason

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http://www.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30400-13521645,00.html

Renewed confidence in the housing market is poised to boost property prices by 6% this year, it is being claimed.
The Centre for Economics and Business Research said it had revised up its forecast for UK house price growth during 2006 from 4.4% in January.
This follows the increase in confidence and sustained growth in the financial markets.

Confidence has definately returned but I think some areas will less of an increase and some even more than 6%.

I can't see everyone agreeing with this though. Had you predicted -6% then you'd be a hero on this site :D

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Confidence has definately returned but I think some areas will less of an increase and some even more than 6%.

I can't see everyone agreeing with this though. Had you predicted -6% then you'd be a hero on this site :D

True. It's also worth noting that the CEBR reversed their forecasts from falls to rises.

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Just as well that the next move in Interest Rates will be up.

Could be, but when? I don't think the BoE are in a hurry to move either way. It could be a year away, in which case HPI may have risen more and debt inflated away a bit. This would probably have no significant effect on HPI or the economy and could put the perma bear in a worse situation.

:blink:

Tough choices ahead.

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They don't really say where they expect this additional HPI to come from. They say they "expect stronger growth", is this in the economy? or housing market? The CEBR say there is more confidence, sure I would agree for now, but what will happen to confidence when HPI is not so high?

It seems more of a 'hunch' than a sound well supported forecast.

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Remind me again who are the CEBR and who in effect sponsors them? <_<

You are so cynical.

What makes you think it wasn't independent research that came to this conclusion?

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You are so cynical.

What makes you think it wasn't independent research that came to this conclusion?

Can you answer the question?

Further, have you even read it? 11% over the next 3 years? Utter ******** based on what...er..."stock market doing well...high levels of 2 job/2 wage packets from the gutter employment, petrol will be 1.20 a gallon in 2007...."

Edited by Converted Lurker

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Guest Fiddlesticks
But it is predicting house price inflation will pick up again slightly in 2009 and 2010, with the average cost of a home in the UK breaking through the £200,000 threshold at the end of 2010.

But according to Hometrack they broke through this threshold a couple of months ago!

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But according to Hometrack they broke through this threshold a couple of months ago!

Hi Fiddlesticks

FWIW CEBR work on the average of the Nationwide and Halifax SA numbers, which was £166,044 at the start of the year, and is now approx £169K (thats putting Halifax as Flat this month)

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Hi Fiddlesticks

FWIW CEBR work on the average of the Nationwide and Halifax SA numbers, which was £166,044 at the start of the year, and is now approx £169K (thats putting Halifax as Flat this month)

Wellcome back KON they've been missing you on TMF :lol:

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Guest Fiddlesticks

Hi Fiddlesticks

FWIW CEBR work on the average of the Nationwide and Halifax SA numbers, which was £166,044 at the start of the year, and is now approx £169K (thats putting Halifax as Flat this month)

Thanks KoN, presumably the Hometrack index is aslo higher partly because it's based on asking prices not selling prices.

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Thanks KoN, presumably the Hometrack index is aslo higher partly because it's based on asking prices not selling prices.

Hometrack is based on, I believe agreed sales price, so it will be slightly higher than the Haliwide based on approvals (I've never know a surveyor to up the agreed offer, they only seem to downgrade)

Also IMHO Its higher just because of the mix adjustment they do, and the regional breakdown (Also the don't have Scotland and NI which would IMHO which would also help to explain their avergage price being higher)

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...But it is predicting house price inflation will pick up again slightly in 2009 and 2010, with the average cost of a home in the UK breaking through the £200,000 threshold at the end of 2010.

What makes them think they can see 4 years into the future of the housing market other than arrogance and stupidity?

They might as well try to tell us next weeks lottery numbers.

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Guest Baffled_by_it_all

In think their long term forecast is a bit strange. Although the short-term forecast and the retail figures for Easter don't foster much hope.

Luckily the amount of debt I'd be getting into is still punitive enough for me to stay out for the moment.

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What makes them think they can see 4 years into the future of the housing market other than arrogance and stupidity?

Hang on a minute — isn't that exactly what the dittohead bears round here do? Or did I miss something?

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By contrast, I am sticking to my -6% forecast (i pick the index)

Halifax is +8% today so that's one hell of a gap... :blink:

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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