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The Observer - Speculative Bubbles

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Article about high petrol prices in the Observer today "Petrol hits new highs - but no one knows why".

"This camp insists that high proces are not just a temporary blip but are here to stay. They point out that the price of oil and gold are still well below the levels achieved in real terms in the 70s and 80s. At the other extreme are those who warn that soaring commodity prices are just another speculative bubble, like government gilts, US house prices, technology shares and all the other assets that have at various times been over-hyped and over-inflated. And they warn, what goes up must come down, pointing to signs that supplies of som e commodities - including gold - are starting to rise."

"Ian Kernohan, economist at Royal London Asset Management, says there are signs that grown is slowing in the US and the over-heated housing market seems to be cooling off. That could worsen in the second half as higher fuel prices bite even further."

"Inflationary presures could also spell good news for interest rates. These have been rising steadily in the US and the greater the threat that high fuel prices will push up inflation, the sooner the cycle of increases will end. Here, however, the threat of inflationary pressure from fule prices has persuaded Bank of England governer Mervyn King that it would not be wise to cut interest rates just yet. For the moment, however, both stock markets and oil prices seem likely to continue to defy gravity."

So, lot's of worry about the US housing market, but not extrapolated back here. Ours must be made of different stuff.

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?

      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%

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