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homeless

This Was The Week That Was

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Seems the bears have been well fed in the last week, infact seems theve been having a real feed.Ive also noticed that the bulls have practically disapeared apart from about 2 wind up merchants.

I liken it to a crowd of 5000 at a tennis match, there is everyone looking at the ball thats out and in agreement, except for a couple of nuts that surely were looking more at there strawberries than the game when the ball landed.

The bulls have a heck of a job to talk any market up in the light of the last weeks news, infact they should throw in the towel.

its all over. game,set,match

Edited by homeless

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People who can't see that the market has well and truly turned really have to have their heads in the sand.

In fact it turned well over a year ago, and yet we still see people telling us to buy now before it's too late.

I've now got used to the idea that we will see falling prices for the next 5 to 10 years, with the regular "bounce" reported, just like the VI's managed all through the last crash.

I know people who are now buying, thinking it's a great time to gear up and buy that expensive next house while prices are soft. They will probably lose a small fortune, but many of them will be able to bear the financial burden, having made so much from the boom.

I mostly feel sorry for the FTB's who are getting sucked into this economic monstrosity at this stage.

They're just cannon fodder for the last fools who think this bubble will go on.

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People who can't see that the market has well and truly turned really have to have their heads in the sand.

The market is on the way down aside from a few hotspots. But many people, including me, only notice the fact when sentiment also turns.

It is in the last couple of weeks I wondered about buying, took a sober look at asking prices, and at the statistics, and saw them in a different (I now think more realistic) light. I did not really the beleive the froth a few weeks ago, but only now can I see as clear as day that in most places I would look at property (reasonably comfortable but not top-dollar parts of London, or Oxford) prices are declining in real terms, and in many parts also in nominal terms, and have been declining for some time.

Next question: how long, how fast, and and how far will values fall?

And is the change of sentiment in the property market linked to the rapid decline in the political capital of the present government? Or is the co-incidence a random accident?

Edited by contrarian

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Have you got your bear goggles on again:

http://www.hometrack.co.uk/press/National%...pril%202006.pdf

I especially like the graphs on page 3.

Also, this week saw the U.S. hint at pausing rates to wait for new data. Sweden, widely expected to raise rates on friday, decided to hold & wait for new data.

All you lot have got is a few banks hiking their fixed rates, purely in reaction to the rates available to them.

Oh and there was the Precott & clark stories. But WTF have they got to do with things? Is it that anything apart from Roses is to be considered a bear story contributing to lower HP's?

:lol::lol::lol:

Lets not forget: CPI 1.8%

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Have you got your bear goggles on again:

http://www.hometrack.co.uk/press/National%...pril%202006.pdf

Lets not forget: CPI 1.8%

Well, CPI of 1.8% and HPI of 0.9% on those figures (assuming it for the same period) seems to suggest a modest decline in house prices in real terms.

What have Precott & Clark got to with it, you ask. It is like the argument that equity markets respond to hemlines. I have no idea whether there is any truth in these arguments that markets are influenced by 'subconscious' public moods casued by unrelated factors. If I were an investment analyst I would want to find out.

Edited by contrarian

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Well, CPI of 1.8% and HPI of 0.9% on those figures (assuming it for the same period) seems to suggest a modest decline in house prices in real terms.

What have Precott & Clark got to with it, you ask. It is like the argument that equity markets respond to hemlines. I have no idea whether there is any truth in these arguments that markets are influenced by 'subconscious' public moods casued by unrelated factors. If I were an investment analyst I would want to find out.

You clearly haven't looked at the graphs on page 3 have you......

Are you also calling the equity market?

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Have you got your bear goggles on again:

http://www.hometrack.co.uk/press/National%...pril%202006.pdf

I especially like the graphs on page 3.

Also, this week saw the U.S. hint at pausing rates to wait for new data. Sweden, widely expected to raise rates on friday, decided to hold & wait for new data.

All you lot have got is a few banks hiking their fixed rates, purely in reaction to the rates available to them.

Oh and there was the Precott & clark stories. But WTF have they got to do with things? Is it that anything apart from Roses is to be considered a bear story contributing to lower HP's?

:lol::lol::lol:

Lets not forget: CPI 1.8%

and they (hometrack) put the Jinx on Rooney and Owen, now interest in the world cup has wained all those knob `eds buying double plastic flags to attach to their transit vans will now go back to that other great British pass time of buying houses :lol::lol:

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You clearly haven't looked at the graphs on page 3 have you......

Are you also calling the equity market?

The figures show an annualised modest rise for London, which is contrary to the view I expressed. Sharper rises in April. And yet my perceptions remain that in the longer term the middle ranking areas are not rising and tend to be falling. Then you get reports of astonishing rises in a few isolated areas.The most compelling figures of course are those which come directly or indirectly from LR.

But fine - I could be wrong. As a potential buyer, a falling market would not particularly suit me, I would prefer a stable market. That is not what I see through my bear goggles or otherwise.

As for the equity markets, I have no idea where they are going to go.

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:lol::lol::lol:

That seems to ignore the fact that the recent rise is modest from the previous highs & the previous highs are already incorporated into the CPI figure.

even funnier, you seem to think oil has finished going up :blink:

(have you got your finger stuck on the smiley button ?)

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...but only now can I see as clear as day that in most places I would look at property (reasonably comfortable but not top-dollar parts of London, or Oxford) prices are declining in real terms, and in many parts also in nominal terms, and have been declining for some time.

Watching London prices fairly closely I really don't find that to be the case. There are a few ups and a few downs - if anything I see it this as a fairly steady market where some of the differentials are starting to slowly come out of the system. A steady market might be followed by a falling market, but in London I don't think there's anything pointing that way yet (except for new-builds...)

I always find the swings in sentiment on this site a bit puzzling. I think that people are at their most optimistic when a period of "bad news" is followed by a few more positive scraps and vice versa. This week's news doesn't seem to me to be that dramatic, but maybe because there is some encouraging HPC stuff after a period of apprehension about the spring bounce, everyone is getting a bit overexcited?

In the rest of the country maybe prices are falling, but they're not in London. And if anything is happening it's still very slow, rather than the start of a tumultuous fall. It still might happen, but honestly I think we're in for a slow grind rather than anything more spectacular, at least for the next little while.

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Watching London prices fairly closely I really don't find that to be the case. There are a few ups and a few downs - if anything I see it this as a fairly steady market where some of the differentials are starting to slowly come out of the system. A steady market might be followed by a falling market, but in London I don't think there's anything pointing that way yet (except for new-builds...)

I always find the swings in sentiment on this site a bit puzzling. I think that people are at their most optimistic when a period of "bad news" is followed by a few more positive scraps and vice versa. This week's news doesn't seem to me to be that dramatic, but maybe because there is some encouraging HPC stuff after a period of apprehension about the spring bounce, everyone is getting a bit overexcited?

In the rest of the country maybe prices are falling, but they're not in London. And if anything is happening it's still very slow, rather than the start of a tumultuous fall. It still might happen, but honestly I think we're in for a slow grind rather than anything more spectacular, at least for the next little while.

I have to agree - I'm based in York and i have had my I had my eye on this property http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-621...pa_n=7&tr_t=buy

popped into the estate agents yesterday and found the thing had been sold at the full asking price, the estate agent claimed there were 3 offers at the asking price and the old lady had to pick who she prefered to sell to.

it was a nice area of york so you would expect more interest but i was praying that it wouldn't have gone at the full asking price.

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Last week was extremely depressing reading for Bulls but this article perhaps sums up what is happening and why the news will get worse over the coming days and weeks (if you are a Bull):

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm.../30/ixcoms.html

(Filed: 30/04/2006)

Global tightening will rein in the bulls

China raised interest rates last week. Indeed, around the world, rates and bond yields have been rising. Is this the beginning of the end of the global splurge of liquidity? If so, what are the implications for financial markets?

Winston might have said, this may not be the beginning of the end but it is the end of the beginning.

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Guest Winners and Losers

Is that the best you can come up with?

Madness is close to genius? In your case? ;)

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Have you got your bear goggles on again:

http://www.hometrack.co.uk/press/National%...pril%202006.pdf

I especially like the graphs on page 3.

Also, this week saw the U.S. hint at pausing rates to wait for new data. Sweden, widely expected to raise rates on friday, decided to hold & wait for new data.

All you lot have got is a few banks hiking their fixed rates, purely in reaction to the rates available to them.

Oh and there was the Precott & clark stories. But WTF have they got to do with things? Is it that anything apart from Roses is to be considered a bear story contributing to lower HP's?

:lol::lol::lol:

Lets not forget: CPI 1.8%

Yes there seems to be a UK "spring bounce" going on and there is talk of a "stable" market and I would say things have turned temporarily quite "bullish" (dont really understand the thread starters logic)

I would be suprised if this "bounce" or if sentiment will last till the middle of summer and expect sentiment to change "bearish" showing this bounce as the suckers rally it really is. This will hit bull arguements hard and any "get on the ladder now or never" type quotes will be seen as idiocy. There has been a number of people who have been sucked up by the recent hype and have bought, some of them not your standard "fool". (It will be suprising who will be seen as the greatest fools)

Economic indicators are looking bearish for both the domestic and global property markets (as well as the economy itself) This could be the last decent respite before the decline starts in earnest, so I am saying this is the "suckers rally" and subsequent stories/reports will be talking about the end of crash/decline/correction and will in fact be "false dawns", the very very last one will be the real thing.

Negative HPI by the autumn?

Edited by Flat Bear

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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