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mikefluk

The End Is Nigh

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Far be it from me to spread doom and gloom to an otherwise cheery forum but imagine if you had been in space since the end of the last millenium and returned now. You would find :

The US in so much debt and printing so much money. It has even abandoned reporting on the M3 figure - (the number that quotes how much money is in circulation) It is now widely regarded it will never be able to repay its debt. Have you any idea what this really means ??

The Iranians seeking to establish a new oil exchange based on Euros that will destroy the already worthless dollar.

Oil prices biting into family budgets and getting worse

11/11 and 7/7 changing the landscape of peace and democracy as we knew it - not to mention our governments draconian responses to it.

A doubling of property prices world wide with low inflation. Property prices now more than 6x earnings !! and 25 times annual rents. This combined with the massive expansion of credit means that unless something really drastic happens people taking out 100% morgages today will never be able to repay them

A global tightening of monetary policy and interest rates in particular spells disaster for those around you not listening to your words of caution.

China emerging, Japan re-emerging, both happy to support USA for now but for how long.

Unemployment in the UK on the increase. Inflation edging up, Retail sales down. (Yet John Prescott dominates the newspapers)

Taken individually they would be a worry but together I feel the only thing missing is something to light the blue touch paper and we will experience something the equivalent of the Tsunami in everything we knew or thought we knew previously.

I have seen no media coverage of these factors at all. The media response is to thrust Kirsty and **** face to our screens telling us we should be investing in Oxford and elsewhere.

Have I really been living in Space since 1999 and have I now landed on a parallell universe ??

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Far be it from me to spread doom and gloom to an otherwise cheery forum but imagine if you had been in space since the end of the last millenium and returned now. You would find :

A forum were the contributors post hundreds of links to news stories they take as gospel and therefore a sign of x happening?

So what did happen on 11/11?

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I dunno, but when you go back up can you take me with you?

Its human nature to ignore the unpallatable until its right up against your nose and suddenly all so obvious in hindsight.

Thankfully for the human race, its shines best during times of great suffering. Best get polishing.

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Far be it from me to spread doom and gloom to an otherwise cheery forum but imagine if you had been in space since the end of the last millenium and returned now. You would find :

The US in so much debt and printing so much money. It has even abandoned reporting on the M3 figure - (the number that quotes how much money is in circulation) It is now widely regarded it will never be able to repay its debt. Have you any idea what this really means ??

The Iranians seeking to establish a new oil exchange based on Euros that will destroy the already worthless dollar.

Oil prices biting into family budgets and getting worse

11/11 and 7/7 changing the landscape of peace and democracy as we knew it - not to mention our governments draconian responses to it.

A doubling of property prices world wide with low inflation. Property prices now more than 6x earnings !! and 25 times annual rents. This combined with the massive expansion of credit means that unless something really drastic happens people taking out 100% morgages today will never be able to repay them

A global tightening of monetary policy and interest rates in particular spells disaster for those around you not listening to your words of caution.

China emerging, Japan re-emerging, both happy to support USA for now but for how long.

Unemployment in the UK on the increase. Inflation edging up, Retail sales down. (Yet John Prescott dominates the newspapers)

Taken individually they would be a worry but together I feel the only thing missing is something to light the blue touch paper and we will experience something the equivalent of the Tsunami in everything we knew or thought we knew previously.

I have seen no media coverage of these factors at all. The media response is to thrust Kirsty and **** face to our screens telling us we should be investing in Oxford and elsewhere.

Have I really been living in Space since 1999 and have I now landed on a parallell universe ??

Certain points of fragility in the global financial system are, to be fair, evident to readers of the general press, especially The Economist. The subject is probably seen as too complex and technical for prime time.

The point about denominating oil sales in Euros is interesting. Didn't Saddam start selling oil in Euros? That might have been something which concerned the US, when considering whether regime change was a useful objective.

In fact the Iraq war was rather convenient for the US because it permitted a right-wing administration to politically justify substantial public spending (i.e. on the war), hence propping up the domestic economy, which on a bearish view was an urgent necessity. It should have been a win-win scenario, because if the peace following the war had been more peaceful, then in various ways the US could have expected to get their money back, as well as keeping a lid on the (dollar) oil price.

A futher source of fragility is the complexity of financial markets. The 'cultural' side of the development of complex investment instruments is well described in the 1990s book FIASCO. LTCM and Enron were high profile examples of the risks associated with comlexity in opaqueness. Modern regulatory standards go some way but not far enough to offset the dangers.

Of course this is not a news story until something happens which cannot be ignored. It would be irresponsible for governments to talk about it, and on the whole people in the financial world would not find it appropriate to their job description to talk about the apcalypse, except perhaps privately over a beer. It does not follow that policy-makers and other well-informed people are unaware of the risks.

Perhaps members who work in the City or who speicalise in these subjects in some way (I do not) will comment or correct me?

Edited by contrarian

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Maybe somone from space could spot the invisible 'perpetual turd polishing machine' that the global media operate 24/7 to fool most of the people all of the time.

Perhaps it can't be unplugged, but it looks like the 'lecy' meter might run out soon.

Edited by Saving For a Space Ship

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Far be it from me to spread doom and gloom to an otherwise cheery forum but imagine if you had been in space since the end of the last millenium and returned now. You would find :

The US in so much debt and printing so much money. It has even abandoned reporting on the M3 figure - (the number that quotes how much money is in circulation) It is now widely regarded it will never be able to repay its debt. Have you any idea what this really means ??

The Iranians seeking to establish a new oil exchange based on Euros that will destroy the already worthless dollar.

Oil prices biting into family budgets and getting worse

11/11 and 7/7 changing the landscape of peace and democracy as we knew it - not to mention our governments draconian responses to it.

A doubling of property prices world wide with low inflation. Property prices now more than 6x earnings !! and 25 times annual rents. This combined with the massive expansion of credit means that unless something really drastic happens people taking out 100% morgages today will never be able to repay them

A global tightening of monetary policy and interest rates in particular spells disaster for those around you not listening to your words of caution.

China emerging, Japan re-emerging, both happy to support USA for now but for how long.

Unemployment in the UK on the increase. Inflation edging up, Retail sales down. (Yet John Prescott dominates the newspapers)

Taken individually they would be a worry but together I feel the only thing missing is something to light the blue touch paper and we will experience something the equivalent of the Tsunami in everything we knew or thought we knew previously.

I have seen no media coverage of these factors at all. The media response is to thrust Kirsty and **** face to our screens telling us we should be investing in Oxford and elsewhere.

Have I really been living in Space since 1999 and have I now landed on a parallell universe ??

I don't know what is wrong with the employment in this country - in my field of work it's always opposite of the official statistics. have a look here - http://www.jobstats.com/ . sure it my time comming again.

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A forum were the contributors post hundreds of links to news stories they take as gospel and therefore a sign of x happening?

So what did happen on 11/11?

Sorry I meant 9/11. Your comments about contributors are understood; but there comes a point where they become mainstream, and market sentiment changes...maybe thats the blue touchpaper.. Don't knock it, we all want reality to return

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Unemployment in the UK on the increase. Inflation edging up, Retail sales down. (Yet John Prescott dominates the newspapers)

Despite all of the above events I must say that the latter would still surprise me the most.

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Perhaps members who work in the City or who speicalise in these subjects in some way (I do not) will comment or correct me?

They're usually denounced as perma-bears, in public at least.

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Far be it from me to spread doom and gloom to an otherwise cheery forum but imagine if you had been in space since the end of the last millenium and returned now. You would find :

The US in so much debt and printing so much money. It has even abandoned reporting on the M3 figure - (the number that quotes how much money is in circulation) It is now widely regarded it will never be able to repay its debt. Have you any idea what this really means ??

The Iranians seeking to establish a new oil exchange based on Euros that will destroy the already worthless dollar.

Oil prices biting into family budgets and getting worse

11/11 and 7/7 changing the landscape of peace and democracy as we knew it - not to mention our governments draconian responses to it.

A doubling of property prices world wide with low inflation. Property prices now more than 6x earnings !! and 25 times annual rents. This combined with the massive expansion of credit means that unless something really drastic happens people taking out 100% morgages today will never be able to repay them

A global tightening of monetary policy and interest rates in particular spells disaster for those around you not listening to your words of caution.

China emerging, Japan re-emerging, both happy to support USA for now but for how long.

Unemployment in the UK on the increase. Inflation edging up, Retail sales down. (Yet John Prescott dominates the newspapers)

Taken individually they would be a worry but together I feel the only thing missing is something to light the blue touch paper and we will experience something the equivalent of the Tsunami in everything we knew or thought we knew previously.

I have seen no media coverage of these factors at all. The media response is to thrust Kirsty and **** face to our screens telling us we should be investing in Oxford and elsewhere.

Have I really been living in Space since 1999 and have I now landed on a parallell universe ??

You seem to have absorbed everything very well. Why not post this every morning and save the old hands the bother?

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Third time lucky perhaps. Surely you mean 11/9.

nope he is actually right

It is 9/11 because its american and they date things month/date. Unlike us that use date/month.

STOP BEING PEDANTIC :)

TB

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Certain points of fragility in the global financial system are, to be fair, evident to readers of the general press, especially The Economist. The subject is probably seen as too complex and technical for prime time.

The point about denominating oil sales in Euros is interesting. Didn't Saddam start selling oil in Euros? That might have been something which concerned the US, when considering whether regime change was a useful objective.

Yes Saddam did start selling oil in Euros. There is quite a strong argument to be made there is a causal relationship between this decision and the 25% slide in the dollar against the euro in the 2000-2003 period.

In fact the Iraq war was rather convenient for the US because it permitted a right-wing administration to politically justify substantial public spending (i.e. on the war), hence propping up the domestic economy, which on a bearish view was an urgent necessity. It should have been a win-win scenario, because if the peace following the war had been more peaceful, then in various ways the US could have expected to get their money back, as well as keeping a lid on the (dollar) oil price.

Bush is a puppet. The oil reserves in the middle east are absolutely critical in order to militarily dominate the world. The people that made the decision to go ahead with the invasion were under no illusion that invading iraq would keep a lid on the oil price. Although it did allow them to keep the petrodollar afloat for a bit longer. The ability of the US military to wage endless war, spending endless amounts of money is dependent on the petrodollar.

China could destroy the petrodollar whenever it likes. And at some point in the future it will.

I'm not sure where this is going, but the fiat money systems are collapsing. And the elite is making an all-or-nothing attempt to control the worlds most valuable resources before someone else does. Which is oil, and gold probably.

A futher source of fragility is the complexity of financial markets. The 'cultural' side of the development of complex investment instruments is well described in the 1990s book FIASCO. LTCM and Enron were high profile examples of the risks associated with comlexity in opaqueness. Modern regulatory standards go some way but not far enough to offset the dangers.

Of course this is not a news story until something happens which cannot be ignored. It would be irresponsible for governments to talk about it, and on the whole people in the financial world would not find it appropriate to their job description to talk about the apcalypse, except perhaps privately over a beer. It does not follow that policy-makers and other well-informed people are unaware of the risks.

Perhaps members who work in the City or who speicalise in these subjects in some way (I do not) will comment or correct me?

I don't work in the city. But Stephen Roach, Morgan Stanley's Chief Economist, has been privately quoted saying that "economic armageddon is imminent". I've studied a-level economics and I've had concerns about why china is pegging its currency artificially low for many years now. The fundamentals are all in place for a currency crash of unprecedented proportions.

Edited by Dr Doom

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I agree. I keep hearing stories about a decline in UK IT jobs, yet my sons tell me the jobs market's really buoyant.

I just had a thought - may be it's all about money. in 2000-2001 smart money left high-tec into property and now it's coming back.

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The fundamentals are all in the place for a currency crash of unprecedented proportions.

Which is precisely why is isn't going to happen.

EDIT 5 minutes later: Is nobody going to challenge this? :o

Edited by megaflop

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Which is precisely why is isn't going to happen.

EDIT 5 minutes later: Is nobody going to challenge this? :o

I think you know I agree there is a good possibility that you are right . ;) (ETF).

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Yes Saddam did start selling oil in Euros. There is quite a strong argument to be made there is a causal relationship between this decision and the 25% slide in the dollar against the euro in the 2000-2003 period.

Yes, and I'm sure the fed dropping rates to 1.5% levels and printing money like no tomorrow can account for most.

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longer. The ability of the US military to wage endless war, spending endless amounts of money is dependent on the petrodollar.

Yep, that's why the Fed will do ANYTHING to protect it (they may get it wrong though).

China could destroy the petrodollar whenever it likes. And at some point in the future it will.

But it would risk destroying itself.

I'm not sure where this is going, but the fiat money systems are collapsing. And the elite is making an all-or-nothing attempt to control the worlds most valuable resources before someone else does. Which is oil, and gold probably.

Hows about the most valuable resource being paper that can be printed and then exchanged at will for anything you care to mention. Now THAT would be valuable - very valuable indeed!!!!

I don't work in the city. But Stephen Roach, Morgan Stanley's Chief Economist, has been privately quoted saying that "economic armageddon is imminent". I've studied a-level economics and I've had concerns about why china is pegging its currency artificially low for many years now. The fundamentals are all in place for a currency crash of unprecedented proportions.

The fundamentals are in place, though it may not happen, for a bull market in paper.

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Hows about the most valuable resource being paper that can be printed and then exchanged at will for anything you care to mention. Now THAT would be valuable - very valuable indeed!!!!

Backed by gold... or guns? ;)

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Backed by gold... or guns? ;)

Guns Of course.

Gold would, at some point, make:

1 Printing difficult ;)

2 Taxation harder - would be seen as the theft it is.

3 Papering up of economic cracks (or grand canyons) more difficult.

4 savings worthwhile (Banks derive their power though encouraging borrowing - sometimes they gat this wrong though - 1929 for instance).

etc.

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Guns Of course.

Gold would, at some point, make:

1 Printing difficult ;)

2 Taxation harder - would be seen as the theft it is.

Inflation is the ultimate in stealth taxation, that one pound coin you left on the fireplace last year has deflated with M4 growth running to the tune of 12%. Gold backing totally screws up these systems, it would be like a complete 'cash society'. However, they've always debased currencies, King Henry VIII was nicknamed "Old Coppernose" because his 'silver' coins were actually just plated copper, and eventually revealed themselves as such. Now we have the ultimate in dodgy silver, they've even dispensed with the need for paper, simply monetize some debt on a screen and head for the futures pit.

http://history.wisc.edu/sommerville/123/123%20232%20Henry%20&%20edward.htm' rel="external nofollow">
Until Henry's reign, English currency was made of valuable metals - gold and silver - whose face value was approximately the same as their bullion value. To pay for his wars, Henry decided to mix the silver in his coins with base metal (copper).
Soon the "silver" coinage was so debased that it contained more copper than silver. Henry's subjects derisively called him "Old Coppernose" as the copper in the coins tended to show through first on the high surfaces - e.g. the nose of the portrait.
The debasement of the coinage helped cause rampant inflation, as people demanded proportionally more of the impure coins. The price of imports increased, for foreigners would not accept debased currency.
The economic disruption caused by debasement and inflation continued into the 1560s; it was only in 1562 that the debased coins were fully withdrawn from circulation.

Sound familiar? :lol: There is nothing new under the sun, we just have much fancier toys for ripping off the populace. That's why those in the City see it all as a great game once the penny drops.

Edited by BuyingBear

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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