Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Yandros

Nationwide Report - Anyone Else Spot The Glaring Contradiction?

Recommended Posts

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Apr2006.pdf

Something glaringly obvious has occurred to me.

Look at page 3 - Nationwide proudly displays that long term trend line, with current house prices waaaay above it. They must still consider this chart valid, or else why show it?!! If this truly is a "new paradigm" today, why hasn't this chart been consigned to the bin?

Of course this trend may actually be completely wrong. That's not my point. The point is that the continuing presence of that chart suggests that the Nationwide economists don't altogether believe their own spin.

Interesting.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

what this chart shows to me is that whatever disposable income is available.

houses and the companies that control this, will rise and fall prices to meet it.

they aim to suck the maximum. whatever the economic conditions. they mop up every spare penny.

you have to ask why ? this does not happen with cars.

then the whole land control thing in the uk comes clear into view.

work slaves. work. hy-yah !!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"Looking forward, we continue to expect some month to month volatility in the house price numbers as teh market settles down after the unseasonably strong winter months and adjusts to the economic conditons on the horizon."

Unusually bearish. Are they going to revise these figures down to a negative in a month or so? They must have really tinkered with the seasonal adjustment on these figures to be so negative......

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Riser

"Looking forward, we continue to expect some month to month volatility in the house price numbers as teh market settles down after the unseasonably strong winter months and adjusts to the economic conditons on the horizon."

Unusually bearish. Are they going to revise these figures down to a negative in a month or so? They must have really tinkered with the seasonal adjustment on these figures to be so negative......

I suspect the "tinkering with the seasonal adjustment" was done in the past couple of months and they are now having to bleed the lower data into their reports for them to maintain any credability.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

what this chart shows to me is that whatever disposable income is available.

houses and the companies that control this, will rise and fall prices to meet it.

they aim to suck the maximum. whatever the economic conditions. they mop up every spare penny.

you have to ask why ? this does not happen with cars.

then the whole land control thing in the uk comes clear into view.

work slaves. work. hy-yah !!!

Perhaps its time to introduce LVT?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Perhaps its time to introduce LVT?

Dont they make trucks?

or does it mean Lies Vs Truth???

OK give up - wtf does LTV mean? Lower transaction Volumes???

TB

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Unusually bearish. Are they going to revise these figures down to a negative in a month or so? They must have really tinkered with the seasonal adjustment on these figures to be so negative......

Yep they are really tinkering with them , the NSA price is now higher than the SA price and the NSA MoM % was 0.9% (A £1.5K rise) which was SA down to 0.1% rise (£200)

	NSA	MoM %	SA	MoM %2006	Apr	£163,573	0.9%	£162,902	0.1%

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yep they are really tinkering with them , the NSA price is now higher than the SA price and the NSA MoM % was 0.9% (A £1.5K rise) which was SA down to 0.1% rise (£200)

	NSA	MoM %	SA	MoM %2006	Apr	£163,573	0.9%	£162,902	0.1%

I do not know what it is with you Kingofnowhere, but there is a real smugness about your style of posting, i have noticed this with your Fool PMT posts as well.

Your argument is very bullish on property, but you seem to think that you endless charts and numbers and data and blah blah blah are based on solid facts and so make you THE MAN OF TRUTH.

I find the little game that you have set up on Fool pmt a joke(the monthly thing you do where you and a few of your pals pat each other on the back ), for as long as NOTHING happens in the property, you can sit there and say i was close with my prediction and so i am up there with the best of the experts.

This is the way i see it, imagine a massive comet heading for earth, there is no doubt that it is going to hit us or come very close to hitting us, if it does hit it is curtains. All this is going to happen within a decade, at the present the comet is 810 million miles away so all is going to be fine for a while.

There are three opinions on Earth,

1. It is going to hit us

2. It will not hit us

3. Do not know

And then there is someone like you, day after day, week after week , year after year, we get the endless data of what debris has entered our atmosphere that day, was it the size of a pea or a car, what was the percentage compared to last month, is there a growing trend in dustbin sized debris.

All of this really does not matter, it is all unimportant, none of it is related to the comet, and that is all that matters, when it gets close will it ****** us or not.

Sam

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Fiddlesticks

I do not know what it is with you Kingofnowhere, but there is a real smugness about your style of posting, i have noticed this with your Fool PMT posts as well.

Your argument is very bullish on property, but you seem to think that you endless charts and numbers and data and blah blah blah are based on solid facts and so make you THE MAN OF TRUTH.

I find the little game that you have set up on Fool pmt a joke(the monthly thing you do where you and a few of your pals pat each other on the back ), for as long as NOTHING happens in the property, you can sit there and say i was close with my prediction and so i am up there with the best of the experts.

This is the way i see it, imagine a massive comet heading for earth, there is no doubt that it is going to hit us or come very close to hitting us, if it does hit it is curtains. All this is going to happen within a decade, at the present the comet is 810 million miles away so all is going to be fine for a while.

There are three opinions on Earth,

1. It is going to hit us

2. It will not hit us

3. Do not know

And then there is someone like you, day after day, week after week , year after year, we get the endless data of what debris has entered our atmosphere that day, was it the size of a pea or a car, what was the percentage compared to last month, is there a growing trend in dustbin sized debris.

All of this really does not matter, it is all unimportant, none of it is related to the comet, and that is all that matters, when it gets close will it ****** us or not.

Sam

This is one theory of how the housing market might crash, but then it rather makes all analysis on this or any other board pointless. Why discuss movements in the Nationwide index at all if all it's doing is distracting us from a bloody great metephorical comet that none of us can predict?

If that's your criticism you can't just direct at KoN, it applies to anyone who looks at these figures, and therefore probably most of the posters on this board.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Sam

I'm sorry you feel that I am smug because I understand the numbers, and correct people when they misunderstand them. Basically you have to understand how the numbers relate and interact or you can't predict the market. Which surely is what this board is about? Would you prefer that people write things here that are incorrect, and then they make judgements on their incorrect data?

That is why it’s worth predicting where you think the numbers will be. You learn from your mistakes and if you learn from them you end up being wiser and FWIW it also it stops memory bias. Which I see a lot of on this board, one week its the US$ FX rate that's important next week when the dollar goes the wrong way its not

Anyway, the numbers are bullish at the moment (Approvals, HPI, growth, interest rate outlook), and there is nothing on the horizon that would even suggest a property crash.

I'm bullish because the data I have suggests that prices will rise, particularly in London and the SE. I am quite willing to put where I think house prices will be at the end of the year 7%-8% HPI, and I’m willing to be judged on it. If I’m wrong, I’m sure everyone will tell me so, but at least I will admit it, rather than many people who for year on and year out say “Crash has started”

Anyway, if you find my writing smug, then this is your problem not mine, so get over it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is one theory of how the housing market might crash, but then it rather makes all analysis on this or any other board pointless. Why discuss movements in the Nationwide index at all if all it's doing is distracting us from a bloody great metephorical comet that none of us can predict?

If that's your criticism you can't just direct at KoN, it applies to anyone who looks at these figures, and therefore probably most of the posters on this board.

Fair point

Even while i was writting i knew that there is a lot of data out there that none of us can tottally ignore, i think the point i was trying to make was that some depend too much on it.

The one thing King seems to overlook is up untill now the property market has not once been on any kind of downward trend, i wonder what will happen when it does. Probably i will be in the same postion as he is today in predicting falls month after month, any monkey can do that.

The real art is predicting how far it will go.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fair point

Even while i was writting i knew that there is a lot of data out there that none of us can tottally ignore, i think the point i was trying to make was that some depend too much on it.

The one thing King seems to overlook is up untill now the property market has not once been on any kind of downward trend, i wonder what will happen when it does. Probably i will be in the same postion as he is today in predicting falls month after month, any monkey can do that.

The real art is predicting how far it will go.

Sam

I don't overlook that property hasn't fallen, why would I, I know it hasn't. If real rates rise the house prices will fall. But real rates aren't going to be rising in the near future. So house prices aren't going to fall.

FWIW here is the "monkeys" track record on predicting. I was second in the TMF mom Guess overall, and I'm running second in the Yearly HPI, and I regularly beat the city boys prediciting the BOE approval numbers. But hey any "Monkey" can do that, right.

As for how far prices will go I have predicted how far HPI will go this year (7-8%), which I predicted last Sept. It's in writing and I will be judge by it.

Perhaps I do depend on the data, but then not using it (Or not undestanding it) tends to make you crap at knowing what is going and I wouldn't want to get things wrong would I?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyway, the numbers are bullish at the moment (Approvals, HPI, growth, interest rate outlook), and there is nothing on the horizon that would even suggest a property crash.

And you would have us believe that you are objective! Interest rate outlook? Which numbers are you looking at? It's certainly not the bond/gilt yields or the inflationary pressure reports from any continent you care to look at.

Look at the Paulm's pinned thread for sale transaction volumes too. Which way is the trend going? How about the HPI trend? Or Growth? HOw about debt? Have you looked at that? How about the FTB affordibility numbers? Or the multples needed to get an average property? Or the declining BTL yields...

Go on then let's see the your numbers that miraculously prove that all is well. I bet you've even got evidence that Oil > $70 is a good indicator of consumer confidence!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And you would have us believe that you are objective! Interest rate outlook? Which numbers are you looking at? It's certainly not the bond/gilt yields or the inflationary pressure reports from any continent you care to look at.

Look at the Paulm's pinned thread for sale transaction volumes too. Which way is the trend going? How about the HPI trend? Or Growth? HOw about debt? Have you looked at that? How about the FTB affordibility numbers? Or the multples needed to get an average property? Or the declining BTL yields...

Go on then let's see the your numbers that miraculously prove that all is well. I bet you've even got evidence that Oil > $70 is a good indicator of consumer confidence!

Hi Prude

I try to be objective, interest rates IMHO will end the year at 4.5% (as predicted in TMF yearly competion), the economy has picked up more than I expected (And alot more than many bears who had us in recession any time soon) , so the chances of a rate rise have increased.

OK Pailms pinned thread, what were the numbers like last year. You can't compare because of Seasonal adjustements (Yep lending is Seasonal) , and what were the late returns last year, and who knows what the Land reg is doing there might be a back log. The data supplied, is frankly a waste of time, as there isn't any corresponding data to draw any valid conclusions from. (also I am under the impression that the landreg downloads were until recently catching up with missed transactions, which has now been sorted out)

Anyway this of course will all clear up when the Land reg release their numbers, but until then I can't see much use for these numbers, until a reasonable size data set is available.

Oil at $70, is not good, but then in Sept 05 it was at that level. So if it stays at this price until the YoY oil inflation will be 0%

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

OK Pailms pinned thread, what were the numbers like last year. You can't compare because of Seasonal adjustements (Yep lending is Seasonal) , and what were the late returns last year, and who knows what the Land reg is doing there might be a back log. The data supplied, is frankly a waste of time, as there isn't any corresponding data to draw any valid conclusions from. (also I am under the impression that the landreg downloads were until recently catching up with missed transactions, which has now been sorted out)

Anyway this of course will all clear up when the Land reg release their numbers, but until then I can't see much use for these numbers, until a reasonable size data set is available.

KON if we ignore the most recent 3 months (which will have transactions added to them) we can use the figures to look at the trend over the past few years.

Average transactions per month:

2002: 107899

2003: 98892

2004: 99089

2005: 83500

2006: ?????

4 years data is substantive and the trend is clear. (NB: seeing as each year is seasonal this is not a factor that explains this data set)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

KON if we ignore the most recent 3 months (which will have transactions added to them) we can use the figures to look at the trend over the past few years.

Average transactions per month:

2002: 107899

2003: 98892

2004: 99089

2005: 83500

2006: ?????

4 years data is substantive and the trend is clear. (NB: seeing as each year is seasonal this is not a factor that explains this data set)

The trend is flatish for 2002-2004 then falls in 2005. We could in advance tell this was going to happen as its the same pattern as the approval numbers . For 2005 the approvals (Offset by 1qtr to allow for the L/R time lag) average 91K (Obviously this has Scotland and NI in unlike the L/R). So far for 2006 land reg numbers (Approvals Sept 05 - Feb 06) have averaged 116K the same as 2004

2006 will back up there with 2003 or 2004 when the numbers are all fully out

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The trend is flatish for 2002-2004 then falls in 2005. We could in advance tell this was going to happen as its the same pattern as the approval numbers . For 2005 the approvals (Offset by 1qtr to allow for the L/R time lag) average 91K (Obviously this has Scotland and NI in unlike the L/R). So far for 2006 land reg numbers (Approvals Sept 05 - Feb 06) have averaged 116K the same as 2004

2006 will back up there with 2003 or 2004 when the numbers are all fully out

If this 91K approvals figure has Scotland and NI in then surely to compare like with like we need to take them out, which would be consitent with the trend above.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If this 91K approvals figure has Scotland and NI in then surely to compare like with like we need to take them out, which would be consitent with the trend above.

No, because they are

1) Small in relation to the rest of the UK

2) there is no reason to believe they are making up a substantially larger of smaller part of the sample now, than they were in the past.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.