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Duplex

Irish House Price Inflation Highest Since 2000

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I ask you, house prices rising at an average of €3,500 per month and this guy thinks there's a bubble.

Is he barking?

Irish Property Bubble Blog

http://breakingnews.iol.ie/news/story.asp?...190&p=y8x8y7896

Average house prices are increasing at their fastest rate in six years, according to the latest house price index published by the ESRI and Permanent-TSB.

The two organisations said average prices had increased by 3.5% in the first three months of this year, the fastest rate of increase since the same period in 2000.

This means that prices have risen by 12.1% in the past year.

The average price paid for a house in Dublin has now reached €384,000, compared to €249,000 in the rest of the country.

Edited by undersupply

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http://breakingnews.iol.ie/news/story.asp?...190&p=y8x8y7896

Average house prices are increasing at their fastest rate in six years, according to the latest house price index published by the ESRI and Permanent-TSB.

The two organisations said average prices had increased by 3.5% in the first three months of this year, the fastest rate of increase since the same period in 2000.

This means that prices have risen by 12.1% in the past year.

The average price paid for a house in Dublin has now reached €384,000, compared to €249,000 in the rest of the country.

The Irish are true risk - takers so continued rises was to be expected.

Whilst investing over in Berlin the Notary told me the bulk of his recent transactions were Irish buyers!

I know I keep repeating this but some of the pessimists need to stop marking time and fiddling about with small SM investments (big investments ok btw as this shows comittment). Its time they joined the risk taking world even if that means mewing and risk.

Edited by dogbox

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Guest Baffled_by_it_all

Ok, as long as you say it's fine. I'll dive right in.

Play poker much dogbox?

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Wow, all those interest rate rises, more to come and idiots are still borrowing more and more money to buy less and less house.

Ireland is going to be so screwed for the next generation or two.

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The Irish are true risk - takers so continued rises was to be expected.

Whilst investing over in Berlin the Notary told me the bulk of his recent transactions were Irish buyers!

I know I keep repeating this but some of the pessimists need to stop marking time and fiddling about with small SM investments (big investments ok btw as this shows comittment). Its time they joined the risk taking world even if that means mewing and risk.

Does risktaking mean being prepared to go bankrupt?

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Probably. :P Then again, watching the Irish property market makes me question my sanity too.

Nice idea to start the blog.

Meanwhile....the ECB ups the rhetoric.

``We have to expect more interest-rate increases,'' Garganas said today at the Bank of Greece's annual general shareholders meeting. ``They won't stay at the current rate'' and are ``very far from the normal level.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/bonds_europe.html

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Whilst investing over in Berlin the Notary told me the bulk of his recent transactions were Irish buyers!

So presumably when the Irish market crashes and takes out those speculators^H^H^H^H^Hbuyers, the Berlin market will too.

Edited by MarkG

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These 'investors' have no idea of the risk weighting of their investments, none whatsoever. Now if you were to talk to an 'investor' who bought an apartment in the Costa's in 2002 and is taking a monthly hit on holding costs while his equity seeps away, he may have a different perception. The value of a property is the net present value of the future income stream discounted at an appropriate and realistic discount rate.

BTW the growth in mortgage debt reached an annual 30% pa in February this year, December saw a record €3,500,000,000 in mortgage lending. We have reached in Ireland a dark place where greed, stupidity, fear and mania rule.

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The value of a property is the net present value of the future income stream discounted at an appropriate and realistic discount rate.

Do you mind if I drop that line into conversation at a dinner party in D4? Then I'll sit back, observe the blank faces and wait for the tumbleweed to roll across the table.

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Do you mind if I drop that line into conversation at a dinner party in D4? Then I'll sit back, observe the blank faces and wait for the tumbleweed to roll across the table.

A "Right then, I'll get my coat" moment.

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We have had some commentators saying the Euro is due to collapse as poltical union is not there.

This is a very clear issue in terms of growth rates between different countries.

Dogbox is right, the Irish economy has a higher 'natural rate' of growth than Germany, and with access to unlimited credit, is looking more and more like a opium fiend addicted to the stuff not bothering to dress and after his next house price fix.

Sir Alan Walters was Margaret Thatcher’s personal economic adviser when she was prime minister. In May 2002 he said that the euro would collapse under its own internal contradictions and strains by May 2007.

“We’re already seeing real problems for the euro,” he said. “I don’t know precisely how it will break up, but I know it will break up.” http://www.cato.org/events/monconf16/walters.pdf

Furthermore, he predicted exactly how this would come about.

The likes of Ireland would enter an asset driven growth spiral which would end up in a wage-price-asset spiral and eventaully a slow growth debt ridden slump.

To relieve the pressure, the politicians would make noises about departing the currency and revaluing thier debts in thier new national currency. The bond market for Euro bonds would see increased volitiliy as traders attached new risks to the currency.

Eventually the euro would split apart as members left to unravel the mess that thier economies suffer, and these political strains became manifest throughout the different states of Europe, creating a huge and long lasting financial credit crisis.

What he didn't bank on was the mobility of labour from the new states which has kept the party going on far longer than it should have, but not forever. Still, his forecast was for 2007.

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We have reached in Ireland a dark place where greed, stupidity, fear and mania rule. [Duplex]

Does the church have anything to say about this? Or do most Irish people no longer take much notice?

Church teaching is clear "Give to Caesar what is Caesar's and to God what is God's."

Letting go of wealth

http://www.catholicireland.net/pages/index.php?art=82

Strapped for cash

http://www.catholicireland.net/pages/index.php?art=381

The gluttony of busy people

http://www.catholicireland.net/pages/index.php?art=700

Most people are still nominally Catholic, and will turn to religion in times of crisis.

In fact with all the Poles & Philipino's here, attendance at mass has impoved.

The main challenge the Catholic church faces is lack of personel due to a fall in vocations.

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But the radical ‘letting go’ that is necessary is not really a serious option for us as individuals, except perhaps for a very select few. ‘Letting go’ is a recipe for poverty, homelessness and marginalistion for us as individuals. Those with families and children cannot impose such a lifestyle on their loved ones - unless they want to lose them! As individuals, we are trapped in this sinful structure and we are unable to escape from it. ‘Letting go’ is something that we as a society must do together. More and more of us must be converted to the belief that we must live more simply if our world is to become more just. We in the West must join in solidarity with one another in order to let go.

Don't see the church "letting go" of too many of their assets or wealth.

I think this quote from the book is relevant,

And why beholdest thou the mote that is in thy brother's eye, but perceivest not the beam that is in thine own eye? / Either how canst thou say to thy brother, Brother, let me pull out the mote that is in thine eye, when thou thyself beholdest not the beam that is in thine own eye? Thou hypocrite, cast out first the beam out of thine own eye, and then shalt thou see clearly to pull out the mote that is in thy brother's eye.”

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I know I keep repeating this but some of the pessimists need to stop marking time and fiddling about with small SM investments (big investments ok btw as this shows comittment). Its time they joined the risk taking world even if that means mewing and risk.

i dont see it. i really feel there are now too many pressures on IR.

good luck to them. its not a gamble i would be prepared to take.

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The Irish are true risk - takers so continued rises was to be expected.

Whilst investing over in Berlin the Notary told me the bulk of his recent transactions were Irish buyers!

I know I keep repeating this but some of the pessimists need to stop marking time and fiddling about with small SM investments (big investments ok btw as this shows comittment). Its time they joined the risk taking world even if that means mewing and risk.

Brilliant Satire :D

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http://www.rte.ie/business/2006/0427/houses.html

Link at the bottom to ESRI David Duffy saying on the equivalent of Irelands bbc radio4 a crash is unlikely in the short term due to the net migration, wage inflation,strong economic growth when he was asked to give advice to potential buyers.

3 letters for you david :ECB

The religious orders have been downsizing since the 80's

St Michael's sale not ruled out

http://www.rte.ie/news/2006/0425/education.html

I think profiteering from asset sales isn't in the spirit of letting go.

Maybe they will sell at the price they bought it for :lol::lol::lol:

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http://www.rte.ie/business/2006/0427/houses.html

Link at the bottom to ESRI David Duffy saying on the equivalent of Irelands bbc radio4 a crash is unlikely in the short term due to the net migration, wage inflation,strong economic growth when he was asked to give advice to potential buyers.

3 letters for you david :ECB

esri are usually conservative and they dont want to be seen to be wrong again,he said not in "short term" which could be in next year or two,doesnt mean he thinks its not likely to happen in 3-5 years time.

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esri are usually conservative and they dont want to be seen to be wrong again,he said not in "short term" which could be in next year or two,doesnt mean he thinks its not likely to happen in 3-5 years time.

I think we are at the top or the market now in 2006.

Energy price inflation is filtering through the economy driving up costs.

Supply will catch up with demand (85,000 completions predicted this year alone), sadly affordable housing is some years away.

IR rises are certain.

FTB's are being driven by a sense of panic to gt on the ladder.

Some Estate Agents are gazuming each other.

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I think we are at the top or the market now in 2006.

June/July 2006 will show the highest YOY before the crash at 15%, this will fall to 8% by end of 2006.It will be virtually zero YOY by end of 2007 with a very stagnant market.

Prices will fall in 2008 and not recover to 2006 levels until 2020.

The election and SSIA will keep the party going for another year and a half.

There David, tell it like it is :P

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I thought this speech, given many years ago by samuel brittan of the FT is particularly good and goes to show that some economists are well worth listening to.

In this speech, given 6 years ago he concludes that Ireland may push for massive immigration as a source of growth not that growth should be a priority as its living standards that matter...

http://www.samuelbrittan.co.uk/spee15_p.html

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Ireland is going to be so screwed for the next generation or two.

Yup. I like to think we'll "only" have a repeat of 89-95, but sometimes I wonder if it could be worse. 300 million pounds of extra debt a day isn't it?

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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