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paulm

Latest Land Registry Data On Ourproperty.co.uk

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Hi Guys,

We have now posted the latest update from the Land Registry on OurProperty.co.uk

You may also be interested to know that the number of records we are being sent has been steadily declining since the beginning of the year.

26th April 2006 - 58,626 for 2006 - 9,731 for 2005 - 68,357 total

28th March 2006 - 62,817 for 2006 - 20,811 for 2005 - 83,628 total

27th February 2006 - 31,201 for 2006 - 60,125 for 2005 - 91,326 total

30th January 2006 - 0 for 2006 - 104,009 for 2005 - 104,009 total

Regards,

Paul

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How many late additions do you get to the data, i.e. sales added for 6/9/12 months ago?

Over all good news for HPC! Nice work!

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Your link doesn't work.

Sloppy :angry:

Why is this pinned?

I prefer houseprices.co.uk :D

You don't have to register :P

That`s a bit unfair to be honest, what Paul is sharing there is incredibly relevant. Shame they don`t do press releases. Although I`m a bit confused by how he`s presented it, that shows volumes down significantly...I think :huh: Any chance of rolling it in to a press release guys? Nice pre-empt..

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That`s a bit unfair to be honest, what Paul is sharing there is incredibly relevant. Shame they don`t do press releases. Although I`m a bit confused by how he`s presented it, that shows volumes down significantly...I think :huh: Any chance of rolling it in to a press release guys? Nice pre-empt..

Do they get LR data before anyone else???

Or is it just advertising for a website?

Please forgive my cynicism, I am paranoid :ph34r:

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Do they get LR data before anyone else???

Or is it just advertising for a website?

Please forgive my cynicism, I am paranoid :ph34r:

They get the LR feed same time as the rest of the suppliers, not sure they need the extra eye balls from here anyhow. Always amazes me how many search for property details, perhaps when we see a big slowdown in the popularity of price search sites we`e heading in the right direction-gradual slowdown of activity > etc..

Just interested in the figures, although badly presented in the post..that looks as though volume is down 25% YoY year comparison...fukcin ell!

Paul M if you`re about is this the case?

Edited by Converted Lurker

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Hi,

The figures I've posted are purely the amount of transactions we have received for the Land Registry. Each month we get notified of new transactions spread out over the previous 6 months or so. I guess the figures I have posted are somewhat misleading as they don't describe the amount of sales in any particular month, only the amount of transactions we have been sent from the LR.

If I get some time I will prepare a report for you, or the amount of transactions in each month.

Paul

Do they get LR data before anyone else???

We get the data the same time as everyone else, however I think we were the first to process and upload it to our site this month.

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Hi Guys,

We have now posted the latest update from the Land Registry on OurProperty.co.uk

You may also be interested to know that the number of records we are being sent has been steadily declining since the beginning of the year.

26th April 2006 - 58,626 for 2006 - 9,731 for 2005 - 68,357 total

28th March 2006 - 62,817 for 2006 - 20,811 for 2005 - 83,628 total

27th February 2006 - 31,201 for 2006 - 60,125 for 2005 - 91,326 total

30th January 2006 - 0 for 2006 - 104,009 for 2005 - 104,009 total

Regards,

Paul

How does this show a decline?

for April 2006 58626 but for April 2005 9731?

How is this a decline?

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How does this show a decline?

for April 2006 58626 but for April 2005 9731?

How is this a decline?

Sorry, you've misunderstood what I am saying.

When I say:

26th April 2006 - 58,626 for 2006 - 9,731 for 2005 - 68,357 total

This means that on the 26th of April 2006, we received a total of 68,357 sales records from the Land Registry. These records consisted of 58,626 sales during 2006, and 9,731 sales during 2005.

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Cheers - Bit difficult to understand though! - but seems to be a very much a falling trend - from Januarys 104K - 91K - 84K -68K to April. Yes?

Qite a marked drop!

What's been the average number of transaction p.a. in the past ? Around 900K?

Edit - 900k Totally wrong - Just googled this

From 1983 to 1988 the number of transactions in the housing market grew from an average of 1.3 million a year (1978-82) to a peak in 1988 of more than 2.8 million. This was followed by recession and a decline in the early 90s. The low point in 1992 saw the number of houses sold drop to 1.1 million, a number below the levels preceding the 1980s boom.

Since 1993 the situation has improved and houses prices have recovered. In 1999 the number of transaction rose to 1.45 million

That was written in 2000

http://www.findaproperty.com/story.aspx?storyid=0222

Edited by 737

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Cheers - Bit difficult to understand though! - but seems to be a very much a falling trend - from Januarys 104K - 91K - 84K -68K to April. Yes?

Qite a marked drop!

What's been the average number of transaction p.a. in the past ? Around 900K?

Edit - 900k Totally wrong - Just googled this

From 1983 to 1988 the number of transactions in the housing market grew from an average of 1.3 million a year (1978-82) to a peak in 1988 of more than 2.8 million. This was followed by recession and a decline in the early 90s. The low point in 1992 saw the number of houses sold drop to 1.1 million, a number below the levels preceding the 1980s boom.

Since 1993 the situation has improved and houses prices have recovered. In 1999 the number of transaction rose to 1.45 million

That was written in 2000

http://www.findaproperty.com/story.aspx?storyid=0222

So basically PAULM you need to count the sales you have been sent for the past 3 years. Anything over 12 months old must be taken as 'not likely to be sent'. Then compare the total for each year. We know a low point before a recession was 1.1million per annum, so how does that fair today???

Also we know that in 2006 alone it is 152,644 to date. No I know it will take a while for things to filter through but this does look remarkably low?

So Paul - Lets get this into hard facts and get a press release out! I reckon sales for 2005 to-date are only about 850,000? Does this sound like a good estimate?

I think this data is EXTREMELY revealing - Top Tip Paul :)

TB

Edited by teddyboy

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Sorry, you've misunderstood what I am saying.

When I say:

26th April 2006 - 58,626 for 2006 - 9,731 for 2005 - 68,357 total

This means that on the 26th of April 2006, we received a total of 68,357 sales records from the Land Registry. These records consisted of 58,626 sales during 2006, and 9,731 sales during 2005.

paulm, your time would be better spent rectifying badly presented data , than fielding questions from people confused by said data.

The excellent data content is playing second fiddle to confusion

[i'm on your side honest ]

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No spring bounce then...

Surely since most transactions don't reach LR for 3-4 months, we won't know if there has been a spring bounce until summer?

frugalista

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Surely since most transactions don't reach LR for 3-4 months, we won't know if there has been a spring bounce until summer?

frugalista

Quite.

But it seems there wasn't a december-january (aka winter) bounce :P

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Hi Guys,

We have now posted the latest update from the Land Registry on OurProperty.co.uk

You may also be interested to know that the number of records we are being sent has been steadily declining since the beginning of the year.

26th April 2006 - 58,626 for 2006 - 9,731 for 2005 - 68,357 total

28th March 2006 - 62,817 for 2006 - 20,811 for 2005 - 83,628 total

27th February 2006 - 31,201 for 2006 - 60,125 for 2005 - 91,326 total

30th January 2006 - 0 for 2006 - 104,009 for 2005 - 104,009 total

Regards,

Paul

As has been observed many times on this website - the view from the street and the anecdotal data received are not good. This is definite from my point of view. The only people who are saying the market is okay are the VIs, but they're using a flawed argument to their benefit. Basically, on diminishing transactions the data gets noisy and we can see spikes occuring like +1% MoM that get everyone into a sweat (would be +12% YoY). However, what we're really seeing is the flight to quality, i.e., only the best houses selling that would always have a market on a small sample.

Properties are on the whole NOT selling. The market is frustrated and the only way to get it going UP again is an injection of liquidity (big wage settlements or lowered interest rates). We now know this is not very likely to say the least. Therefore, the only way to get the market moving, get FTBers in, others to move up and down the "ladder" , and EAs to start making commision again :P is to reduce prices. The market is a bit sticky but it will budge, eventually.

If you try to sell now you are trying to sell into an illiquid market. Therefore, you may struggle to even get a buyer. The top of the market has passed where there was plenty of liquidity to dispose of house. That is now over, we're deep into the stagnation, denial stage when tempers will be lost and panic set in. The next stage is pure chaos.

I do quite a bit of trading in markets that are not very liquid and it can be frustrating sometimes to essentially have an asset that is priced at a handsome £x, only to find that you can't find a buyer. That is one advantage of buying/selling on the FTSE/DOW. I truly think that some people new to this phenomena will get very frustrated when they believe that their house is worth £y only to find that they can't find a buyer and have to make a series of reductions to stimulate interest. At this stage with dealing costs etc. they will soon realise a loss. At that point the property market will become a taboo and Phil and Kristy will be banned from our TV screens (thank goodness).

Edited by karhu

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I don't understand the figures, or what they're saying, or what we're hoping they're saying.

I think what he's trying to say is the following.

Each month the land registry gives them x thousand entries of sales that have completed. These can be from any previous month. (I'm not sure how up to date the LR data is), but will predominantly be those completions that occurred within the last twelve months. If you ever look at LR data you know that for any month the data keeps building up for that month in question for at least a year into the future. The number of entries they received in APR is down. Either the LR haven't been working very hard or the property market is seriously slowing down.

Is this correct Paul?

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Hi Guys,

We have now posted the latest update from the Land Registry on OurProperty.co.uk

You may also be interested to know that the number of records we are being sent has been steadily declining since the beginning of the year.

Regards,

Paul

Looks as though the suckers rally theory (post August) may be correct then!

Good work, thanks for the info.

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Surely since most transactions don't reach LR for 3-4 months, we won't know if there has been a spring bounce until summer?

frugalista

That's my uunderstanding. We won't know the true figure for March completions until the end of August.

Which means it's too early to draw any conclusions from stats re. march completions?

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Paulm – could you run code against your database to count the number of transactions NSA each month that are comparable to the BoE mortgage approvals – a bit like this graph. That would give us the pipeline delay in the LR system and the dropout rate on the approvals. :)

wki6o4.jpg

Edited by spline

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Somehow I think PaulM is sorry he started this thread - he's got loads to do now :)

TB

And its pinned so it cant drop of the board. :lol:

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Surely since most transactions don't reach LR for 3-4 months, we won't know if there has been a spring bounce until summer?

frugalista

Yeah, in the age of the internet too!

I've seen a property, on LR before the sold board came down? :huh:

Others, I’m still waiting for!

Is the most reliable source 6 months old data?

And does this ‘delay’ help the press releases from ODPM?

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      • down 5% +
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