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Jason

Nationwide - April - +0.1% Mom, +4.8% Yoy

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Link: http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Apr2006.pdf

  • House price inflation slowed sharply to 0.1% in April, from 1.1% in March
  • Annual house price growth fell back below 5% in April
  • £1 a litre pump prices will hit consumers' spending
  • Commodity prices reach record highs, but housing outperforms over the long term

Average Price now: £163,573

"The rate of growth of house prices cooled sharply in April. Prices increased by only 0.1% in the month, significantly more slowly than the 1.1% increase in March. The annual rate of house price growth fell back below 5% in April to 4.8%. The price of a typical house in the UK is now £163,573, almost £7,500 more than at this time last year. This is equivalent to a price increase of just over £20 per day over the last twelve months."
"The cooling in prices in April was not unexpected given the surge in March and shows the wisdom of not placing too much emphasis on one month's set of numbers. However, the underlying picture remains reasonably healthy as demand conditions have remained quite firm. While the number of house purchase approvals fell back sharply in February, from 121,000 to 115,000, this remains a buoyant level of activity, well above the ten year average of about 100,000 per month."

You Gold Bug's will like this:

"Oil and gold have hit the headlines this month with prices of each reaching record highs. These price explosions have brought annual price inflation of these commodities up to over 40%. Silver has also increased dramatically, rising by over 70% in the last year. This makes the recent upturn in annual house price inflation to around 5% in the last two months look decidedly modest."
Edited by Jason

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Does this mean that the August rate cut is finally wearing off?

It might take a few months of data, but if that's the case, back to discussions of future rate cuts IMO.

I think thisis the angle that Stephen Nickell is taking. The current bounce will fade away and we'll face further deflation down the line. I think the BoE will be scared to cut IRs in case they set another boom off, but will they have a choice?

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Does this mean that the August rate cut is finally wearing off?

It might take a few months of data, but if that's the case, back to discussions of future rate cuts IMO.

I was wondering if a bull or bear would comment first...

... rate cut? :lol:

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I was wondering if a bull or bear would comment first...

... rate cut? :lol:

This is exactly what I was harping on about last year. The threat of rate rises is often enough to cause concern & slow things down. This might be evident in the fact that a 5.5% peak was predicted which didn't occur because things started slowing so quickly. The threat of rate rises bring out the calculators & people ask whether they will be able to afford it when the rate is 1% higher or 2% higher etc & that impacts on their decision making. That also brings out sellers.

On the other hand, in times of rate cuts & potential further cuts, IMO real cuts are needed to confirm the position before people will act. So August was a real cut & many people acted & IMO. But the impact of their decisions may be wearing off now & the rate discussion seems balanced right now. So IF the BOE decides things are slowing too much in coming months, only another rate cut will cause pent up demand to be acted on.

CNBC is discussing this right now.

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This is exactly what I was harping on about last year. The threat of rate rises is often enough to cause concern & slow things down. This might be evident in the fact that a 5.5% peak was predicted which didn't occur because things started slowing so quickly. The threat of rate rises bring out the calculators & people ask whether they will be able to afford it when the rate is 1% higher or 2% higher etc & that impacts on their decision making. That also brings out sellers.

On the other hand, in times of rate cuts & potential further cuts, IMO real cuts are needed to confirm the position before people will act. So August was a real cut & many people acted & IMO. But the impact of their decisions may be wearing off now & the rate discussion seems balanced right now. So IF the BOE decides things are slowing too much in coming months, only another rate cut will cause pent up demand to be acted on.

CNBC is discussing this right now.

so if we don't get a rate cut do you think prices will stagnate?

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This is exactly what I was harping on about last year. The threat of rate rises is often enough to cause concern & slow things down. This might be evident in the fact that a 5.5% peak was predicted which didn't occur because things started slowing so quickly. The threat of rate rises bring out the calculators & people ask whether they will be able to afford it when the rate is 1% higher or 2% higher etc & that impacts on their decision making. That also brings out sellers.

On the other hand, in times of rate cuts & potential further cuts, IMO real cuts are needed to confirm the position before people will act. So August was a real cut & many people acted & IMO. But the impact of their decisions may be wearing off now & the rate discussion seems balanced right now. So IF the BOE decides things are slowing too much in coming months, only another rate cut will cause pent up demand to be acted on.

CNBC is discussing this right now.

TTRTR you're a bit of an idiot (in the nicest possible way). The change of a rate cut has gone. Rates are now on the way up due to global pressure - we cannot do anything about that - and will return to the long term average neutral value for the UK, maybe even overshoot a bit. Just admit it, the UK housing market is overvalued and cannot even tolerate a 0.25% rise (due to the plethora of speculators, highly geared BTL investors and owner occupiers with creative mortgages). If the market were sustainable we'd be able to tolerate 7-8% interest rates without to much fall out.

Time to come to the reality of the situation we're in.

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Hi

Its more probable that its just a reflection of last months very strong 1.1% increase. (As happen Jan And Feb)

Anyway I know that some people don't like the SA index, so the NSA was a rise of 0.9% taking the average price from 162,083 to 163,573

Year	Month	NSA	NSA %	SA	SA %	YoY %2004	Jan	£134,806	-0.5%	£137,329	0.9%	14.3%2004	Feb	£138,730	2.9%	£140,960	2.6%	17.1%2004	Mar	£142,584	2.8%	£143,006	1.5%	16.7%2004	Apr	£145,918	2.3%	£145,586	1.8%	18.9%2004	May 	£149,020	2.1%	£148,043	1.7%	19.5%2004	Jun	£151,524	1.7%	£149,285	0.8%	19.1%2004	Jul	£154,299	1.8%	£152,075	1.9%	20.3%2004	Aug	£153,743	-0.4%	£152,241	0.1%	18.9%2004	Sep	£153,727	0.0%	£152,833	0.4%	17.8%2004	Oct	£152,159	-1.0%	£152,764	0.0%	15.3%2004	Nov	£153,439	0.8%	£154,148	0.9%	15.0%2004	dec	£152,623	-0.5%	£153,913	-0.2%	12.7%2005	Jan	£151,757	-0.6%	£154,243	0.2%	12.6%2005	Feb	£152,879	0.7%	£155,192	0.6%	10.2%2005	Mar	£153,876	0.7%	£154,427	-0.5%	7.9%2005	Apr	£156,128	1.5%	£155,556	0.7%	7.0%2005	May	£157,272	0.7%	£155,984	0.3%	5.5%2005	June	£157,791	0.3%	£155,635	-0.2%	4.1%2005	July	£158,348	0.4%	£155,893	0.2%	2.6%2005	Aug	£157,310	-0.7%	£156,032	0.1%	2.3%2005	Sep	£156,517	-0.5%	£156,143	0.1%	1.8%2005	Oct	£157,107	0.4%	£157,539	0.9%	3.3%2005	Nov	£157,139	0.0%	£158,026	0.3%	2.4%2005	Dec	£157,250	0.1%	£158,880	0.5%	3.0%2006	Jan	£158,478	0.8%	£161,029	1.4%	4.4%2006	Feb	£158,573	0.1%	£160,920	-0.1%	3.7%2006	Mar	£162,083	2.2%	£162,667	1.1%	5.3%2006	Apr	£163,573	0.9%	£162,902	0.1%	4.8%**************************************						Previous Aprils						Year	Month	NSA	NSA %	SA	SA %	YoY %1991	Apr	£53,677	1.5%	£53,701	0.6%	1992	Apr	£51,978	0.0%	£51,964	-0.9%	-2.7%1993	Apr	£51,677	3.0%	£51,602	2.1%	-2.4%1994	Apr	£51,506	-1.1%	£51,360	-2.0%	1.8%1995	Apr	£52,063	0.8%	£51,874	0.0%	-0.5%1996	Apr	£52,700	2.3%	£52,495	1.5%	0.6%1997	Apr	£57,406	1.6%	£57,193	0.9%	9.0%1998	Apr	£64,301	1.3%	£64,086	0.7%	12.4%1999	Apr	£68,856	0.8%	£68,649	0.4%	7.1%2000	Apr	£80,893	1.9%	£80,682	1.6%	16.3%2001	Apr	£86,244	1.4%	£86,030	1.1%	7.3%2002	Apr	£100,473	3.8%	£100,266	3.5%	14.8%2003	Apr	£122,748	0.5%	£122,542	0.1%	24.4%2004	Apr	£145,918	2.3%	£145,586	1.8%	17.6%2005	Apr	£156,128	1.5%	£155,556	0.7%	8.3%2006	Apr	£163,573	0.9%	£162,902	0.1%	4.6%

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TTRTR you're a bit of an idiot (in the nicest possible way). The change of a rate cut has gone. Rates are now on the way up due to global pressure - we cannot do anything about that - and will return to the long term average neutral value for the UK, maybe even overshoot a bit. Just admit it, the UK housing market is overvalued and cannot even tolerate a 0.25% rise (due to the plethora of speculators, highly geared BTL investors and owner occupiers with creative mortgages). If the market were sustainable we'd be able to tolerate 7-8% interest rates without to much fall out.

Time to come to the reality of the situation we're in.

Not admitting the argument in the UK is balanced at the moment makes you a prize idiot IMO.

So in a nutshell STR’ers and FTB’ers have just lost another grand and a half waiting this month out

Luckily for them they're all saving 1.5k a month.

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Commenting on the figures, Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide’s group economist, said however, that the cooling in prices in April was “not unexpected” given the surge in March, and said the underlying picture “remains reasonably healthy as demand conditions have remained quite firm”.

On the supply side, estate agents were reporting some increased levels of supply on their books as new sellers came to market, perhaps encouraged by the recent upturn in prices.

But supply was still at a relatively low level and in spite of strong buyer interest, this, coupled with higher house prices choking off some demand, suggested that activity would fall towards its longer term average over the coming months, said Ms Earley.

Looking forward, she expected some further volatility in the house price numbers as the market settled down after the unseasonably strong winter months.

Factors such as rising oil prices and utility bills, along with a softening labour market, were likely to weigh on consumer spending, leaving a slightly weaker, rather than an accelerating, outlook for house prices for 2006, Ms Earley said.

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Think it just shows how rubbish these reports are. For instance are we supposed to believe that for a £250,000 house that it went up £2750 in march and then fell by a £250 or thereabouts in April. Seems that these wild flucuations are figures plucked out of the sky to me.

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Commenting on the figures, Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide’s group economist, said however, that the cooling in prices in April was “not unexpected” given the surge in March, and said the underlying picture “remains reasonably healthy as demand conditions have remained quite firm”.

On the supply side, estate agents were reporting some increased levels of supply on their books as new sellers came to market, perhaps encouraged by the recent upturn in prices.

But supply was still at a relatively low level and in spite of strong buyer interest, this, coupled with higher house prices choking off some demand, suggested that activity would fall towards its longer term average over the coming months, said Ms Earley.

Looking forward, she expected some further volatility in the house price numbers as the market settled down after the unseasonably strong winter months.

Factors such as rising oil prices and utility bills, along with a softening labour market, were likely to weigh on consumer spending, leaving a slightly weaker, rather than an accelerating, outlook for house prices for 2006, Ms Earley said.

I'm surprised no ones picked up on "Factors such as rising oil prices and utility bills, along with a softening labour market, were likely to weigh on consumer spending, leaving a slightly weaker, rather than an accelerating, outlook for house prices for 2006, Ms Earley said."

The (hated on here VI) Nationwide are actually saying house prices will be weaker (rather than acclerating).

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Think it just shows how rubbish these reports are. For instance are we supposed to believe that for a £250,000 house that it went up £2750 in march and then fell by a £250 or thereabouts in April. Seems that these wild flucuations are figures plucked out of the sky to me.

Exactly.

At the end the day sentiment plays a big part.

This is why psychology will play an important part in the eventual house price falls.

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I'm surprised no ones picked up on "Factors such as rising oil prices and utility bills, along with a softening labour market, were likely to weigh on consumer spending, leaving a slightly weaker, rather than an accelerating, outlook for house prices for 2006, Ms Earley said."

The (hated on here VI) Nationwide are actually saying house prices will be weaker (rather than acclerating).

Well they did say they would fall this Spring

https://registration.ft.com/registration/ba...000e25118c.html

Nationwide warns on house prices

By Jane Croft,Retail Banking Correspondent

Published: November 18 2005 03:00 | Last updated: November 18 2005 03:00

Nationwide, the UK's largest building society, warned yesterday that it expected house prices to fall early next year.

The mutual said overall house price growth will be zero at the end of next year with "modest falls" in the early part of 2006 offset by a recovery later on.

Those Blimin Vested interested, not only talking the market down, but using the SA to "fiddle" the numbers downwards.

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Well they did say they would fall this Spring

https://registration.ft.com/registration/ba...000e25118c.html

Nationwide warns on house prices

By Jane Croft,Retail Banking Correspondent

Published: November 18 2005 03:00 | Last updated: November 18 2005 03:00

Nationwide, the UK's largest building society, warned yesterday that it expected house prices to fall early next year.

The mutual said overall house price growth will be zero at the end of next year with "modest falls" in the early part of 2006 offset by a recovery later on.

Those Blimin Vested interested, not only talking the market down, but using the SA to "fiddle" the numbers downwards.

Yes, we said that they were making some noises in that direction to cover their backs at the time. The tune of Halifax and Nationwide has changed markedly in the last six months. They've gone from a bullish phase to a "mildly" optimistic.

One of the problems [for them] is that they started to call the top in (sometime around) 2003 and the market surged unexpectedly and they had to revise up several times. So, I guess they're just being cautious now in calling the "real" top. Looking at the data, this looks like it, the market has run out of steam of it's own accord and is ready to fall [everything is in place, affordability, creative leading etc. and inflation is kicking in, which will lead to interest rate rises.]

The other point to make is that the current low volumes of transactions makes the data now coming from HBOS and Nationwide very noisy, which is going to confuse the issue. IMO houses have not rising at all since Christmas. If anything, they are either sticking or selling at last years prices or slightly below. I've noticed a slight degradation of many asking prices around where I live. Slowly, surely realisation is setting in. Panic is next......

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Does this mean that the August rate cut is finally wearing off?

It might take a few months of data, but if that's the case, back to discussions of future rate cuts IMO.

I think thisis the angle that Stephen Nickell is taking. The current bounce will fade away and we'll face further deflation down the line. I think the BoE will be scared to cut IRs in case they set another boom off, but will they have a choice?

Looks like the short dated gilt yields are rising this morning, suggesting that the market thinks that a RATE RISE will happen sooner than it had expected.

UK Gilt yields

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Look at the regional data on their website which has been updated to include Q1 2006.

Despite the spring activity, the South East is still going down. Very telling.

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Looks like the short dated gilt yields are rising this morning, suggesting that the market thinks that a RATE RISE will happen sooner than it had expected.

UK Gilt yields

Of course they will. Anyone who think to the contrary doesn't understand how interest rates work. Keeping them low for long periods leads to inflation, which cannot be tolerated on the long term because investors will deal with you very harshly indeed [the housing market is one manifestation, bond prices are another].

The housing market is now dead and its fundamentals are looking worse by the minute. I think that it is now too late to sell. The last opportunity has gone for most. This is the Enron," trying to talk the market up while they dump their own stock" phase.

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Looks like the short dated gilt yields are rising this morning, suggesting that the market thinks that a RATE RISE will happen sooner than it had expected.

UK Gilt yields

Correction to my original post - market now has rising yields on all bonds not just the short dated ones. Rate cut???? :lol:

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Looks like the short dated gilt yields are rising this morning, suggesting that the market thinks that a RATE RISE will happen sooner than it had expected.

UK Gilt yields

Yes. Fixed Rate money, which is driven by bond yields, has risen already. In the last two weeks 5yr bond yields have risen another 0.2%. This is just about to feed through to fixed rate mortgages. Nationwide have overlooked mentioning this.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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