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Those Who Said We're In A Recession

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4945680.stm

The UK economy grew strongly at the start of the year - buoyed by a surprise expansion in manufacturing.

Gross domestic product (GDP) grew by a steady 0.6% in the first three months of the year, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

Who has been talking about interest rate rises on here for ages now?? The interest rate cut theory is now dead and burried. If rates are not going down then where are they going. It will be interesting to see what happens to CPI now. I can see a few "unexpected" jumps.

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4945680.stm

The UK economy grew strongly at the start of the year - buoyed by a surprise expansion in manufacturing.

Gross domestic product (GDP) grew by a steady 0.6% in the first three months of the year, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

Well, I was one of those who contended that we're in a recession now (early stages) and I see no reasonto change my mind. The obvious question is what are the comparisons and what are we manufacturing more of?

For better or for worse, Britain has set itself up as a service nation and basically, a giant shopping mall (be it clothing, electronics, restaurants, "entertainment" or whatever). These two pillars dwarf manufacturing and I think these are in recession.

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Who has been talking about interest rate rises on here for ages now?? The interest rate cut theory is now dead and burried. If rates are not going down then where are they going. It will be interesting to see what happens to CPI now. I can see a few "unexpected" jumps.

Hang on a minute.

0.6% equates to 2.4% growth per annum.

That's hardly ground breaking growth.

The interest rate cut is not dead and buried whilst Gordon Brown has his eyes on No. 10. Accept it.

Well, I was one of those who contended that we're in a recession now (early stages) and I see no reasonto change my mind. The obvious question is what are the comparisons and what are we manufacturing more of?

For better or for worse, Britain has set itself up as a service nation and basically, a giant shopping mall (be it clothing, electronics, restaurants, "entertainment" or whatever). These two pillars dwarf manufacturing and I think these are in recession.

Recession is two successive quarters of negative growth. We aren't in a recession...yet.

Agree, UK is just one big shopping mall full of chavs - 2/3's of gdp is retail/consumer spending

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4945680.stm

The UK economy grew strongly at the start of the year - buoyed by a surprise expansion in manufacturing.

Gross domestic product (GDP) grew by a steady 0.6% in the first three months of the year, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

Yeah must be all those Speccy 48ks we make eh? :rolleyes:

NDL

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Recession is two successive quarters of negative growth. We aren't in a recession...yet.

We are if inflation is understated by 2.4%. And IMHO it's been understated by at least that much for years.

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Yeah must be all those Speccy 48ks we make eh? :rolleyes:

NDL

I wish!

Lets get this clear, I'm not a bull by any means, and I understand that the economy is mainly built on public spending. However, theres no way you can say we're in the 'early' stages of recession when we're still expanding. Its just pure speculation.

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I wish!

Lets get this clear, I'm not a bull by any means, and I understand that the economy is mainly built on public spending. However, theres no way you can say we're in the 'early' stages of recession when we're still expanding. Its just pure speculation.

True but you could say that we are heading towards a recession when the rate of gdp growth is contracting which it is and the key stimulus for gdp growth - retail growth which makes up around 65% of gdp is going in reverse. IMO we will be in a recession in 12-18 months time.

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True but you could say that we are heading towards a recession when the rate of gdp growth is contracting which it is and the key stimulus for gdp growth - retail growth which makes up around 65% of gdp is going in reverse. IMO we will be in a recession in 12-18 months time.

Yes this is true.

Maybe somebody has a graph of the growth or rate of GDP growth in the last 10 or so years?

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Hang on a minute.

0.6% equates to 2.4% growth per annum.

That's hardly ground breaking growth.

The interest rate cut is not dead and buried whilst Gordon Brown has his eyes on No. 10. Accept it.

Recession is two successive quarters of negative growth. We aren't in a recession...yet.

Agree, UK is just one big shopping mall full of chavs - 2/3's of gdp is retail/consumer spending

GDP Growth of 2.4% is ideal for a mature economy. Goldilocks - not too hot - not too cold.

Well done New Labour

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GDP Growth of 2.4% is ideal for a mature economy. Goldilocks - not too hot - not too cold.

Well done New Labour

Indeed. Almost as if the figure was made up.... www.statistics.GOV.uk !

UK Economy Sliding into Recession

Looks like growth is slowing....anyway.

Edited by Come On Down

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GDP Growth of 2.4% is ideal for a mature economy. Goldilocks - not too hot - not too cold.

Well done New Labour

True.

What's not ideal is personal debt growing at 10.6% especially when it is already 1.174 Trillion

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Wake up and smell the coffee, chaps. Have a look at the chart - http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=192.

It shows that the economy is expanding. The nearest we got to recession was the Q1 2005.

I share all the fury on this site that there isn't a recession, and that the housing market isn't - as a generality - falling; we are living beyond our means, and the longer we carry on the worse the correction will be. But there is no hiding the facts. House prices are generally rising. We are not in recession. Denying the obvious just makes us all look foolish.

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Um, just a question to throw at you lot.

When I talk to people over in eastern europe, they all seem to think of the UK still in terms of being an economic powerhouse, shades of empire etc. When I tell them about the debt levels I see around me, and the extent to which house prices have inflated, the manner in which we seem to be almost entirely devoted to services/retail/financial products they seem a bit suprised.

So, my question is what happens to the pound once enough of the rest of the world figures out that we basically make up the cash out of nothing?

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I freely admit to my ignorance about the way these things are calculated. How do they measure manufacturing output. I don't suppose they count the extra nuts and bolts, do they? Or do they measure income, and if so, is it adjusted for inflation?

If it is income-based wouldn't the economy grow just because prices had risen (above the 'official' inflation rate)?

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Um, just a question to throw at you lot.

When I talk to people over in eastern europe, they all seem to think of the UK still in terms of being an economic powerhouse, shades of empire etc. When I tell them about the debt levels I see around me, and the extent to which house prices have inflated, the manner in which we seem to be almost entirely devoted to services/retail/financial products they seem a bit suprised.

So, my question is what happens to the pound once enough of the rest of the world figures out that we basically make up the cash out of nothing?

The banking system has always made up cash out of nothing. It's hardly a new thing.

The UK still makes money from certain areas of manufacturing; however, modern manufacturing doesn't require anything like the workforce that it used to, hence the reduction in headcount. Same for the USA.

Phil

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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