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I Told You So

Short Sterling Through The Floor

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Telegraph

Experts say the Bank of England now looks highly unlikely to cut interest rates after manufacturers' optimism about future orders jumped to the highest level for two years.

Figures released by business lobby group the CBI sent the pound soaring as economists predicted that the next move in borrowing costs from the current level of 4.5pc will be up.

A base rate rise before the Autumn now looks a certainty.

Rates & Bonds

Look at how those UK bond yields have risen today.

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Telegraph

A base rate rise before the Autumn now looks a certainty.

Rates & Bonds

Look at how those UK bond yields have risen today.

So no recession then... so does that mean that house prices will go up? But me want houses to go down!

Unnghh... my brain hurts.

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Market is now pricing in 0.5% rise in a year's time

http://www.futuresource.com/quotes/quotes.jsp?s=LSS&t=Future

Seriously, who still thinks that interest rates are going down?

Is it because the 'expert analysts' predict a cut before year end? You're being deceived! Why do you think mortgage lenders are raising their fixed rates?

Please, the market is NOT pricing in 0.5% rise in a years time (Current 95.06) so rate 4.94 less adjustment of 0.2% (conservative), gives rate of 4.74.....

See BOE page 9-10 why short sterling needs to be adjusted

But Libor is an interbank rate and, as

such, it contains a premium reflecting the credit risk

of the financial institutions that contribute to the

daily Libor fixing.(5) This credit premium means that

the forward rates implied by the Bank’s BLC tend to

lie above expectations of the policy rate, and the size

of the premium is unlikely to be constant through

time or across maturities.

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So no recession then... so does that mean that house prices will go up?

Personally I'm betting on stagflation: a collapsing UK economy where the BoE have to raise rates due to global inflationary pressures.

With no wage inflation to speak of, that will be an exciting time for the housing market.

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So no recession then... so does that mean that house prices will go up? But me want houses to go down!

Unnghh... my brain hurts.

Oh man!!! This bubble is all about low interest rates, not a strong/weak economy.

The argument you give is the one TTRTR keeps giving and will be proved incorrect. It's a recipe for making huge paper gains and losing it all!!!!

What have we been saying here for the last 18 months:

1. Commodities/inflation on the way up.

2. Interest rates on the way up (faster than anyone expects).

3. HPC.

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Oh man!!! This bubble is all about low interest rates, not a strong/weak economy.

The argument you give is the one TTRTR keeps giving and will be proved incorrect. It's a recipe for making huge paper gains and losing it all!!!!

What have we been saying here for the last 18 months:

1. Commodities/inflation on the way up.

2. Interest rates on the way up (faster than anyone expects).

3. HPC.

One out of three isn't bad, I suppose. However, I always heed the following advice my investment advisor passed on to me:

"If you keep on saying something for a long time... it will probably turn out to be right in the end. However, if you keep on saying lots of things lots of time for a long time... something will definitely turn out to be right in the end."

Att. Doris Stokes, medium and morbid fraudster. In Little Voices in My [mouse's] Ear"

EDIT: for the usual spelling mistakes

Edited by aussieboy

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Personally I'm betting on stagflation: a collapsing UK economy where the BoE have to raise rates due to global inflationary pressures.

With no wage inflation to speak of, that will be an exciting time for the housing market.

Well, the person this board seems to think most highly of had this to say on that subject

Merve King (May 05)

"If you mean a return to what was called stagflation in the past, then I think you really ought to get a new dictionary.

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2. Interest rates on the way up (faster than anyone expects).

What, we might have a 0.25% increase in the next 12 months and then flat or falling, blimey that really much faster than anyone could ever expect....

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why do people on this forum want the economy to collapse? Why do you want interest rates to go up and why do you want a recession? Do you want mass unemployment just so you might have a chance to get on the housing "ladder"?

Sorry I dont understand how its to anyones benefit if the economy collapses.....

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Sorry I dont understand how its to anyones benefit if the economy collapses.....

The economy has been a fantasy since the late 90s, and arguably since WWII. It's well past time some reality was returned to economics, and that will only happen after a major economic collapse.

No pain, no gain, as they used to say before the 'Miracle Economy'.

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What, we might have a 0.25% increase in the next 12 months and then flat or falling, blimey that really much faster than anyone could ever expect....

That IS the expected now. I'm talking about the unexpected.

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Oh man!!! This bubble is all about low interest rates, not a strong/weak economy.

The argument you give is the one TTRTR keeps giving and will be proved incorrect. It's a recipe for making huge paper gains and losing it all!!!!

What have we been saying here for the last 18 months:

1. Commodities/inflation on the way up.

2. Interest rates on the way up (faster than anyone expects).

3. HPC.

Watching CNBC today, I couldn't help but notice their long talk about the MASSIVE commodoties bubble we're in now, that HAS to POP sometime soon.....

I guess you had to be there.

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Watching CNBC today, I couldn't help but notice their long talk about the MASSIVE commodoties bubble we're in now, that HAS to POP sometime soon.....

I guess you had to be there.

Yep cheap liquidity, speculation, pure greed and stupidity has gone:

stock market -> real estate -> commodities

the crash will occur in that order, and we've already had the stock market crash :o

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why do people on this forum want the economy to collapse? Why do you want interest rates to go up and why do you want a recession? Do you want mass unemployment just so you might have a chance to get on the housing "ladder"?

err.... Yep. Reckon that would do :)

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why do people on this forum want the economy to collapse? Why do you want interest rates to go up and why do you want a recession? Do you want mass unemployment just so you might have a chance to get on the housing "ladder"?

Sorry I dont understand how its to anyones benefit if the economy collapses.....

We can sit back and laugh? Why do you think?

:blink:

Seriously now, just because the property sector might fall into oblivion for eight years again is of little consequence if you work in biotech, just as the internet collapse was of little consequence to estate agents.

The entire world does not revolve around the Great British Residential Property Market.

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So as interest rates rise against a background of a recovering economy then

My pension fund will start to perform again

Annuities will produce a decent return

My endowment policy might just pay out what it was supposed to pay out

I'll be encouraged to save and get a decent return on my savings

I won't be encouraged to get into debt

And asset bubbles, like housing, will deflate.

And that truly would be the miracle economy.

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Watching CNBC today, I couldn't help but notice their long talk about the MASSIVE commodoties bubble we're in now, that HAS to POP sometime soon.....

I guess you had to be there.

Commodities fall into two groups consumables and durables.

How would a consumables bubble work? Is there such a thing?

Which commodities fall into which group?

Most commodities are consumables. Are they bubble prone?

Are chocolate bars prone to asset inflationary bubbles? Or do they just get eaten anyway?

Can you distinguish between durables and consumables? Do you know what I'm talking about? Or am I wasting my breath?

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Seriously now, just because the property sector might fall into oblivion for eight years again is of little consequence if you work in biotech, just as the internet collapse was of little consequence to estate agents.

Indeed. Most people lived pretty well in the last recession, including landlords who bought in the crash rather than the boom: rents were actually giving a decent yield.

Of course back then we actually did a few things in the UK other than build overpriced houses, so the impact today would likely be rather worse.

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We can sit back and laugh? Why do you think?

:blink:

Seriously now, just because the property sector might fall into oblivion for eight years again is of little consequence if you work in biotech, just as the internet collapse was of little consequence to estate agents.

The entire world does not revolve around the Great British Residential Property Market.

Right, but you have to buy a house and you need to be in work and need to have customers. They are interactive - just how many jobs andhow much of the moneygoround depends on builders taking cement and building products, on EA buying BMWs and greasy hair products, surveyors, architects, banks lending money, shops having people to spend.

The property market is a MASSIVE part of UK PLC and it's one many of us are in, much more than we are in biotech or widget making.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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