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Guest Baffled_by_it_all

London Market

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Guest Baffled_by_it_all

Ok this is purely a VI question as I'm an FTB (god, I'm writing in acronyms. it'll be text speak next)

Is the London market any different to the rest of the country? As one of the places where population density is highest doesn't demand always outstrip supply there? Would you expect it to start falling first (if that happens) or after the rest of the country?

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No demand does not always outstrip supply, look at the area around Docklands right now, you can get a lovely 1 bed flat for £150k, or a nice 2 bed for £200, not cheap....... but no more than they would have cost in 2000.

Why haven't they gone up? Well they did quite a bit, na dhave come straight back down due to over supply. Only so many people want to rent their and when people buy they tend to want to live away from work. Oddly enough ;)

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No demand does not always outstrip supply, look at the area around Docklands right now, you can get a lovely 1 bed flat for £150k, or a nice 2 bed for £200, not cheap....... but no more than they would have cost in 2000.

Why haven't they gone up? Well they did quite a bit, and have come straight back down due to over supply. Only so many people want to rent there and when people buy they tend to want to live away from work. Oddly enough ;)

Is this fact Timmy, (not doubting you) that prices are now returning to 2000 levels?

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Ok this is purely a VI question as I'm an FTB (god, I'm writing in acronyms. it'll be text speak next)

Is the London market any different to the rest of the country? As one of the places where population density is highest doesn't demand always outstrip supply there? Would you expect it to start falling first (if that happens) or after the rest of the country?

Bearing in mind that London itself is a lot of micromarkets, sometimes moving in different directions...

Last time London led the falls then led the rises, and this has led to an expectation that the same will happen again. However the 1989-1995 falls were by far the biggest in London and the SE simply because that's where the bubble had been - prices elsewhere didn't rise by nearly as much as this time around.

So we might or might not be in a different situation. Personally I believe London overall might stay stagnant or rise slightly while elsewhere there are falls. Others disagree. But my main point is that there is occasionally some friction on this site between those from London and elsewhere. Because everyone has been waiting for falls led by London, it is not welcome news when some of us in London say that after a period of broad stagnation there is a lot of activity and slight rises this year. People don't want to hear that. But it doesn't mean that elsewhere the falls might not develop sooner, without waiting for London.

(There is also the fact that the media, being totally Londoncentric, will only tend to recognise and report on price falls if they happen in Notting Hill, but that's another story...)

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As one of the places where population density is highest doesn't demand always outstrip supply there?

Oh, and population density is high but so is housing density, so I don't think this is true. After all it was equally true in 1989-1995 and demand clearly didn't outstrip supply then. People tend to talk about demand as though it is unaffected by price, but the whole point of a demand curve is that no matter how high or low the supply, demand reduces as prices increase. There will always be a high theoretical demand for a capital city, but if prices are perceived to be too high or falling, that reduces the demand significantly.

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Is this fact Timmy, (not doubting you) that prices are now returning to 2000 levels?

it's hard to judge what the real market price is, as so little business is being done. A small number get sold to naive wannabe BTLs - just enough to prop prices up a teensy bit longer

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Is this fact Timmy, (not doubting you) that prices are now returning to 2000 levels?

Are they returning to 2000 levels, or did they ever really go up?

I'm not a fan of new builds I have to admit, but it appears that all docklands has to offer is an easy commute to the wharf and city airport, and not a lot in the way of amenities / community etc.,

Apologies to anyone who lives there, I know lots that do, but I can see why this area may have been stagnant.

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Guest Cletus VanDamme

As noted on another thread, the gap between London prices and elsewhere has been closing rapidly over the last few years. This actually made some parts of London seem good value. Now the gap is opening up again as we have a mini London boom. I'm not convinced the other parts of the country will follow this time.

I would also think that prime London locations will be largely unaffected by any crash. Also, areas that were gentrified a while back (e.g. Crouch End). So prices in Peckham should fall back to realistic levels, but I wouldn't be surprised to see places like Highgate and Notting Hill rise despite a 'crash' elsewhere.

So, I think it still makes sense to buy now in a good area of London on say, a 10-year fix. Because I just can't see prices in the good areas going through the floor. For this to happen, there would need to be a huge change in the demographic of that area. There's not going to be an exodus of rich media types from Crouch End and Highgate in the event of a crash. But those same media types won't want to hang around in Hackney and Peckham when it all goes t*ts up.

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Docklands flats are selling for more than 200k....

http://www.upmystreet.com/property/prices/.../docklands.html

IMHO prices have risen so quickly, noone really knows what anything is worth, prices now vary widely in and out of london. The graphs in london look stable and gentle before 99, when they they start to rise and fall rapidly. The graphs accross the rest of the country started to be more volitile after 2003/4...

Edited by moosetea

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Guest Baffled_by_it_all

Cletus. It's easier said than done. It's 180 for a studio flat in Crouch End. Wouldn't fancy living for 10 years in one maxed up to the hilt.

You end up in Hackney and Peckham because it's all you can afford.

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Docklands flats are selling for more than 200k....

http://www.upmystreet.com/property/prices/.../docklands.html

IMHO prices have risen so quickly, noone really knows what anything is

worth, prices now vary widely in and out of london....

That is singularly the most useless website on earth. Flats are defined as anything from a one bed studio to a river view penthouse and there's no way of seeing what the average price corresponds to.

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Is this fact Timmy, (not doubting you) that prices are now returning to 2000 levels?

I moved out from that area in 2000, had a mate who was buying then he paid around £160k for a new one bed, today 2006 I have been looking at a 1 bed rental, £800pcm, or buy it for £160k ( asking ) hmmmm someones BTL not working out there then.

:D My point to the estate agent, why on earth would I want to buy it off him, he's obviuosly having to subsidise it at that rental but got no choice as the markets saturated.

Docklands flats are selling for more than 200k....

http://www.upmystreet.com/property/prices/.../docklands.html

IMHO prices have risen so quickly, noone really knows what anything is worth, prices now vary widely in and out of london. The graphs in london look stable and gentle before 99, when they they start to rise and fall rapidly. The graphs accross the rest of the country started to be more volitile after 2003/4...

LOL, tell you what mate, you buy yours for £200k, I'll buy mine for £155k. ;)

Edited by timmy_30

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I moved out from that area in 2000, had a mate who was buying then he paid around £160k for a new one bed, today 2006 I have been looking at a 1 bed rental, £800pcm, or buy it for £160k ( asking ) hmmmm someones BTL not working out there then.

:D My point to the estate agent, why on earth would I want to buy it off him, he's obviuosly having to subsidise it at that rental but got no choice as the markets saturated.

LOL, tell you what mate, you buy yours for £200k, I'll buy mine for £155k. ;)

Any chance of any links Tim, meat on bone? (lazy get day for me today ;) )

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Guest Cletus VanDamme

Cletus. It's easier said than done. It's 180 for a studio flat in Crouch End. Wouldn't fancy living for 10 years in one maxed up to the hilt.

You end up in Hackney and Peckham because it's all you can afford.

Agreed, although go just above 180 and there are some 1 and 2 bedders. 2 bedders will be on the Harringay Ladder (best to be on the other side of the tracks if you can)

This will probably go for £180K, 1 bedroom, not studio, but looks a bit of a funny shape, central Crouch End:

http://www.findaproperty.com/agent.aspx?ag...prop&pid=296213

If you can stretch to 190K, Hillfield Avenue is highly sought after:

http://www.findaproperty.com/agent.aspx?ag...=prop&pid=60402

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Guest Baffled_by_it_all

I could definitely buy it. Whether I could afford to live there on my own long term is another matter.

Note to self: get rich girlfriend...

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Havn`t seen furniture like that since I lived in Beckton in the late 80`s..that`s truly horrific. Again highlights one of the basic flaws of the too late btl crowd, they imagine tenants paying top dollar will put up with that kind of s.h.i.t. :angry:

Have to say, it looks pretty cheaply done. I would expect a lot more for £785 a month. Nasty, nasty stuff from a non-professional BTLer. Offer them £150 and see if you can do a deal at £160..... - that will hurt them by the time they have paid the service charge, which is no doubt at least £100 a month......

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Havn`t seen furniture like that since I lived in Beckton in the late 80`s..that`s truly horrific. Again highlights one of the basic flaws of the too late btl crowd, they imagine tenants paying top dollar will put up with that kind of s.h.i.t. :angry:

Oh Iv'e rented worse, at comparatively worse prices too. Certainly can't see anyone buying the millstone off him that 's for sure. If I could be arsed I'd wander along to Nethouserpices to see what he paid for it.

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Have to say, it looks pretty cheaply done. I would expect a lot more for £785 a month. Nasty, nasty stuff from a non-professional BTLer. Offer them £150 and see if you can do a deal at £160..... - that will hurt them by the time they have paid the service charge, which is no doubt at least £100 a month......

That's what I was thinking. Look guys, I've got to move back into Docklands for a new job, not sure how long I'll be there for and I'll need a place to rest my weary head during weekdays, under 20min into work would be nice too. And if it's not too shabby to drag the occaisional inebriated female back to that's a nice bonus as well.

I figure for £600-50pcm ( which is what I'd offer ) that's fair enough.

Edited by timmy_30

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Yes.

Warning to all FTBs...ALWAYS remember to ask about the service charge for the flat you are purchasing.

I've looked at flats where the charge is £1200 a year.

That would pay my rent for almost 2.5 months...and you get about as much for it.

On the flipside of the coin, places which dont apply a service charge can be extremely run down and you get clobbered with the cost of a new roof within a few years.

Damned if you do. Damned if you dont.

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This flat is very low spec and in an absolute cr*phole of a location. Out by the Sewage Works and adjacent to the Woolwich Ferry (so you can pop over on a Saturday night if you feel like getting your head kicked in or being stabbed).

It is about as far away from Canary Wharf as you can get and still call it Docklands (it is really more like "Thames gateway").

I doubt anyone paid anything like £160k for this flat in 2000 but if you can give us a Postcode it will be easy enough to find out via nethouseprices.

In the Central Docklands area around Canary Wharf (and walking distance from it) you will be hard placed to find a 2 bed flat (even one as cr*ppy as the one you have found above) for anything close to the £160 -£200k you quote. The average Price of a 2 bed Flat in E14 according to Findaproperty.com is £365k (http://www.findaproperty.com/area0473.html) although this covers everything from the the Ex LA flats at £150k to the high end No, 1 West India Quay at £2.1mio. The cost of "decent" (good sized and well spec'ed) two bed flats in E14 is around about the £350k mark. The new builds are being sold for considerably more than that (see www.panpeninsula.com for examples - quite small two bedders compared to some of the older stock but high specification and good location for Docklands).

BB

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The falls have already started in London, both in asking and selling prices. There is such a disparity between similar properties, which I believe is a symptom of the commencement of a downturn in prices

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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