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Cornwall Sceptic

Falling Prices And Landlords Unable To Rent - Here's Some Proof

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There is a development in Central Birmingham - Centenary Plaza - of the approx 219 appartments and 1 penthouse completed in 2003/4 - at least 52 are advertised for rent and at least 13 are up for sale (listed on rightmove)

Holliday Street is in B1 not bordering on some rough areas like B16 and B18 it is prime location a spit from Brindley Place and Broad Street where all the night life is

The properties for sale include 2 reposessions one of which is up for auction at a guide price of £50-£70k below the price paid in Oct 2003 another one "must be sold" is SSTC at £50k below the price paid and another for sale privately "hopefully" at asking an price of £22k below price paid (see links below)

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-643...a_n=11&tr_t=buy

http://www.houseprices.co.uk/e.php?q=146+Centenary+Plaza

Rental starts at £950 for the two bedroomed with an average of £800 and drops to £550 for the one bedroomed with an average of £650

I know some perhaps many of the flats will be owned by large businesses but some will be owned by smaller private investors maybe TTRTR himself

BTL mortgage for an average 2 bedroomed purchased at £225k with a 85% mortgage at 5% equates to -

repayment £1130.80 or IO at £796.87 take off EA's fees maintenance etc of 10% and you are subsidising your property by at least £80 per month take off 25% as you are advised (to cover for voids etc.) and that subsidy goes up to £200

Most of the private BTL'ers will have taken reduced rate deals for three years which are all set to expire now - so if, for example, they have a base rate tracker at 1% above base they will have another 0.5% to pay another £80 taking their monthly subsidy to £160 or £280 if you take voids into consideration

But it's OK what about the capital gains............. with only 1 property of the development that has sold no 102 bought Feb 04 for £152k sold for £146k on 1/8/05 loss of about 10k when you take into consideration stamp duty and EA fee etc. and another "must be sold" SSTC at 50k less than Another sale agreed (at a 20%+ loss) there will be some very worried owners in that development :(

How about some of you bulls giving a positive slant on this!

CS

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There is a development in Central Birmingham - Centenary Plaza - of the approx 219 appartments and 1 penthouse completed in 2003/4 - at least 52 are advertised for rent and at least 13 are up for sale (listed on rightmove)

Holliday Street is in B1 not bordering on some rough areas like B16 and B18 it is prime location a spit from Brindley Place and Broad Street where all the night life is

The properties for sale include 2 reposessions one of which is up for auction at a guide price of £50-£70k below the price paid in Oct 2003 another one "must be sold" is SSTC at £50k below the price paid and another for sale privately "hopefully" at asking an price of £22k below price paid (see links below)

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-643...a_n=11&tr_t=buy

http://www.houseprices.co.uk/e.php?q=146+Centenary+Plaza

Rental starts at £950 for the two bedroomed with an average of £800 and drops to £550 for the one bedroomed with an average of £650

I know some perhaps many of the flats will be owned by large businesses but some will be owned by smaller private investors maybe TTRTR himself

BTL mortgage for an average 2 bedroomed purchased at £225k with a 85% mortgage at 5% equates to -

repayment £1130.80 or IO at £796.87 take off EA's fees maintenance etc of 10% and you are subsidising your property by at least £80 per month take off 25% as you are advised (to cover for voids etc.) and that subsidy goes up to £200

Most of the private BTL'ers will have taken reduced rate deals for three years which are all set to expire now - so if, for example, they have a base rate tracker at 1% above base they will have another 0.5% to pay another £80 taking their monthly subsidy to £160 or £280 if you take voids into consideration

But it's OK what about the capital gains............. with only 1 property of the development that has sold no 102 bought Feb 04 for £152k sold for £146k on 1/8/05 loss of about 10k when you take into consideration stamp duty and EA fee etc. and another "must be sold" SSTC at 50k less than Another sale agreed (at a 20%+ loss) there will be some very worried owners in that development :(

How about some of you bulls giving a positive slant on this!

CS

HPI contains within itself the seeds of its own destruction. :)

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hmmmmmmmmmm...where is TTRTR then.

How convenient that he has missed this thread while writing 2000 posts elsewhere about how big

his winky is.

Edited by geneer

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Guest Winners and Losers

hmmmmmmmmmm...where is TTRTR then.

How convenient that he has missed this thread while writing 2000 posts elsewhere about how big

his winky is.

'Portfolio' please - he never actually uses the word 'winky'

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Brindley Place and Broad Street where all the night life is

All the chav night life that is. Always prefered Custard Factory myself.

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Guest muttley

'Portfolio' please - he never actually uses the word 'winky'

He claims it stretches from Wandsworth to Battersea.

We moved out of a house 5 months ago.It's still empty and the rent is the same as June 2004.

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WTF has new builds in Birmingham got to do with me?

I don't buy new builds, I don't push them on other people & I suggest no self-respecting investor touches them. They are for Mum & Dad investors who like shiny brochures & show apartments.

Not to mention that the only time I ever went to Birmingham I just kept driving! What a hole!

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some new builds offer a 6% guaranteed fixed rental income (the builder pay the rent for you for 2 years)

so it may not matter

however in two years people are going to get worried when this period expires :o

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some new builds offer a 6% guaranteed fixed rental income (the builder pay the rent for you for 2 years)

Not quite. All they are doing is giving a 12% discount but in a hidden format.

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some new builds offer a 6% guaranteed fixed rental income (the builder pay the rent for you for 2 years)

so it may not matter

however in two years people are going to get worried when this period expires :o

Those are often full of dodgy clauses & backed up by small offshoot companies that go bust within months of the building being finished.

The reason I don't like new builds, they're always sold at a premium & they have nothing to distinguish between each other except price (for renting is my main point).

Edited by Time to raise the rents.

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WTF has new builds in Birmingham got to do with me?

I don't buy new builds, I don't push them on other people & I suggest no self-respecting investor touches them. They are for Mum & Dad investors who like shiny brochures & show apartments.

Not to mention that the only time I ever went to Birmingham I just kept driving! What a hole!

TTRTR

you have a view on everything and voice your opinions without reserve - I thought you would have welcomed someone asking for your thoughts

I'm sure you are far too shrewd to buy newbuilds and have a sound portfolio that is not exposed to minor drops in value and is not made affordable by short term discounts etc.

Another take is the wider picture that for many BTL'ers who have mortgaged themselves up to the hilt, relying on capital gains that were at best a handful of hope, the brown stuff is about to hit the fan - is your reluctance to pass opinion due to the acknowledgement that if the BTL market goes t*ts up then this would not bode well for you or are you in a good enough position to benefit from their mistakes by clearing up the mess at bargain prices - I hope it's the latter

Unsustainability is like cancer - if you treat it early enough you can survive albeit in a weaker state - if you don't treat it it speads to other parts and becomes untreatable - therefore no matter what you do to put it right it doesn't work - the UK property market IMHO has passed the point of no return - of course it can't die but it could be very ill for a long time

As for Birmingham being to far away to affect you I am sure I can find similar stories in London - where is your portfolio?

CS

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Guest Bart of Darkness
As for Birmingham being to far away to affect you I am sure I can find similar stories in London - where is your portfolio?

In the back of.... his mind!

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some new builds offer a 6% guaranteed fixed rental income (the builder pay the rent for you for 2 years)

so it may not matter

however in two years people are going to get worried when this period expires :o

no, they don't pay the rent.......these are de facto cashback deals where you pay over the odds for the property and the builder gives you say 10% back..........in the form of a 2 year rent guarantee....

It is in fact a price cut !......that has been disguised

Edited by Michael

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No serious investor has bought a new build flat in B'ham City Centre for years - the writing was on the wall 3 years ago. Overvalued and no capital growth!

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Spot on TTRTR - newbuilds are nothing more than "packaged candy" , they are pushed on the novice, greedy and gullable i.e. Mr + Mrs J. Public - they will get slaughtered.

The real money continues to be made buying cheap and renting under the market value in desirable locations - not newbuild rat cages.

Just watch the bloodbath when new build projects in far flung lands ie Cyprus, Spain and the baltic coast go cold due to a lack of tourists revenue, service charges, repairs :(

perhaps some of you will at last join the house owner clan after all :lol:

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TTRTR

you have a view on everything and voice your opinions without reserve - I thought you would have welcomed someone asking for your thoughts

I'm sure you are far too shrewd to buy newbuilds and have a sound portfolio that is not exposed to minor drops in value and is not made affordable by short term discounts etc.

Another take is the wider picture that for many BTL'ers who have mortgaged themselves up to the hilt, relying on capital gains that were at best a handful of hope, the brown stuff is about to hit the fan - is your reluctance to pass opinion due to the acknowledgement that if the BTL market goes t*ts up then this would not bode well for you or are you in a good enough position to benefit from their mistakes by clearing up the mess at bargain prices - I hope it's the latter

Unsustainability is like cancer - if you treat it early enough you can survive albeit in a weaker state - if you don't treat it it speads to other parts and becomes untreatable - therefore no matter what you do to put it right it doesn't work - the UK property market IMHO has passed the point of no return - of course it can't die but it could be very ill for a long time

As for Birmingham being to far away to affect you I am sure I can find similar stories in London - where is your portfolio?

CS

Think of a place like Camden Markets. These are on a stall somewhere in the market, they look fancy & come with many promises, but most people aren't buying them. In fact, they're not even what the market wants (think Webmasters post - the market wants family homes). A few suckers will buy them. Some will even do well out of them in CG if they bought very early. But most will hold their investment for a decade or so, when they'll get either no CG or a very small CG as the shine will have worn off their places & the market will have finally caught up with them. They'll walk away, pride damaged a little, but mostly not realising what a poor investment it was.

One of my tenants sat me down in 2000 & told me he had bought a new flat in Brisbane 8 years before, which was still worth less than he bought it for and was just covering it's costs. I'm sure if he held on, he made something now, but he wouldn't realise how poor that perfomance has been. If he does realise, I bet he's not advertising it.

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Think of a place like Camden Markets. These are on a stall somewhere in the market, they look fancy & come with many promises, but most people aren't buying them. In fact, they're not even what the market wants (think Webmasters post - the market wants family homes). A few suckers will buy them. Some will even do well out of them in CG if they bought very early. But most will hold their investment for a decade or so, when they'll get either no CG or a very small CG as the shine will have worn off their places & the market will have finally caught up with them. They'll walk away, pride damaged a little, but mostly not realising what a poor investment it was.

One of my tenants sat me down in 2000 & told me he had bought a new flat in Brisbane 8 years before, which was still worth less than he bought it for and was just covering it's costs. I'm sure if he held on, he made something now, but he wouldn't realise how poor that perfomance has been. If he does realise, I bet he's not advertising it.

What do you think the split in the BTL market as a percentage is as far as ownership is concerned between

* Large Corporate Potfolios

* Astute Private Investors with enough resources to suffer the ups and downs

* Private investors with sound financial knowledge but limited or no resources

* Private Investors without either

CS

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This is the market - full of lemmings who remortgage their own house to get a deposit then listen to former timeshare salesmen in Next suits. Other than buying off plan and reselling to these people, there's not a lot of hope for all these developments to turn a profit and there never really was - price per square foot is London rates and the service charges will be astronomical.

I would not buy into these - give me a solid Accrington brick 3 bed semi with a a garage and a garden in an area with decent schools every time - your separated family market so need to rent before divorce is through is a good one [in my experience] .....

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What do you think the split in the BTL market as a percentage is as far as ownership is concerned between

* Large Corporate Potfolios

* Astute Private Investors with enough resources to suffer the ups and downs

* Private investors with sound financial knowledge but limited or no resources

* Private Investors without either

CS

I have no idea.

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Just watch the bloodbath when new build projects in far flung lands ie Cyprus, Spain and the baltic coast go cold due to a lack of tourists revenue, service charges, repairs

I'm in Cyprus, the market is bloody freezing here - loads of flats going up, nothing selling...

There are four blocks of flats going up opposite where I live. One has recently been completed. There are two large 'For Rent' banners in two of the flats, the rest are empty. This leads me to assume that the other three blocks will also sit empty.

I think it's the beginning of something nasty.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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