Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
apom

We Know Two Things.

Recommended Posts

House prices will double.

My god, move out of my way.. I am of to fulfords..

but wait a moment.. haven't they just doubled and arent people struggling to buy now?

Now the express say that so it must be true.

so take the average of the current average

£180,000 now

or £360,000 in a decade

crikey..

Now can we afford it..............???????????????

The other thing that we do know is :)

Mervin King has sworn too many times that Wage push inflation will not excede 2% per annum.

the average salary is about £25,000

(depends on who you ask.. for these averages, some sources say the averqage wage is higher.. Rightmove say the average house prices is over £200,000 so swings and roundabouts.)

Now in a decade the average person will have to find £360,000 to have the average home.

Lets see how much they will be earning.

1 £25,500

2 £26010

3 £26530.20

4 £27060.80

5 £27602.02

6 £28154.06

7 £28717.14

8 £29291.48

9 £29877.31

10 £30474.86

now £180,000 divided by £25,000 = 7.2 times average salary today.. that sounds difficult.....

Interesting.

What will it be in a decade.............?

£360,000 divided by £30474 = 11.81 times the average salary.

for the average house.

The average salary will be an annual take home of

£22,224.40

so more interestingly, to buy the average house how many years would you need to work to pay of just the capital?

£360,000 / £22,224.40

According to the Express in a decade for the average person to buy the average house they would have to spend every penny of their takehome salary for 16.19 years just to pay the capital..... No interest, just capital.........

How much would an repayment mortage cost?

£2023.17 a month....

times 12 for the year...

£24278.04

Or £2054.04 more then the average person will earn..

So the express has stated as a headline that the average house will have a mortage cost of over 100% of the average salary.

:)

If someone else wants to work out how much you would have to rent that bad boy out for to break even.. :)

Just some sums.

some that perhaps the express may have done before the headline.

Edited by apom

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I got an email from a well meaning colleague today suggesting I buy sooner rather than later off the back of this headline.

I basically said the only way they will double in the next ten years is if they half in the meantime. I added some fundamentals and you can't argue with the position.

I finished by saying if it HPI was that bad I would be long gone. Who wants to live among a nation of debt slaves spending 90% of their earnings on their house!

Either the economy goes or the housing market does in that scenario. We all know which one will go don't we?

NDL

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have the article and whilst it was IRRESPONSIBLE REPORTING they do state at the end of the piece that wage inflation is UNLIKELY TO DOUBLE.

It was basically an ADVERT for the VI's for the money they pend with the newspaper. I think this is a sign of them SHITTING ONES PANTS tbh becuase they know they are losing ground. Also Labour have SPUN 1 too many times about this is the best FINANCIAL position the country is in. The Health service has never been better etc. People ARE Questioning this BS and saying no. Lets hope the NHS DO go out on strike and tell this FACIST government that we have heard enough propaganda and we are making a stand!!!

Take the Express headline with a pinch of salt.

TB

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have the article and whilst it was IRRESPONSIBLE REPORTING they do state at the end of the piece that wage inflation is UNLIKELY TO DOUBLE.

It was basically an ADVERT for the VI's for the money they pend with the newspaper. I think this is a sign of them SHITTING ONES PANTS tbh becuase they know they are losing ground. Also Labour have SPUN 1 too many times about this is the best FINANCIAL position the country is in. The Health service has never been better etc. People ARE Questioning this BS and saying no. Lets hope the NHS DO go out on strike and tell this FACIST government that we have heard enough propaganda and we are making a stand!!!

Take the Express headline with a pinch of salt.

TB

Can you not get that wages do not have to follow hpi when 3/5 buyers are investors?!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

House prices will double.

My god, move out of my way.. I am of to fulfords..

but wait a moment.. haven't they just doubled and arent people struggling to buy now?

Now the express say that so it must be true.

so take the average of the current average

£180,000 now

or £360,000 in a decade

crikey..

Now can we afford it..............???????????????

The other thing that we do know is :)

Mervin King has sworn too many times that Wage push inflation will not excede 2% per annum.

the average salary is about £25,000

(depends on who you ask.. for these averages, some sources say the averqage wage is higher.. Rightmove say the average house prices is over £200,000 so swings and roundabouts.)

Now in a decade the average person will have to find £360,000 to have the average home.

Lets see how much they will be earning.

1 £25,500

2 £26010

3 £26530.20

4 £27060.80

5 £27602.02

6 £28154.06

7 £28717.14

8 £29291.48

9 £29877.31

10 £30474.86

now £180,000 divided by £25,000 = 7.2 times average salary today.. that sounds difficult.....

Interesting.

What will it be in a decade.............?

£360,000 divided by £30474 = 11.81 times the average salary.

for the average house.

The average salary will be an annual take home of

£22,224.40

so more interestingly, to buy the average house how many years would you need to work to pay of just the capital?

£360,000 / £22,224.40

According to the Express in a decade for the average person to buy the average house they would have to spend every penny of their takehome salary for 16.19 years just to pay the capital..... No interest, just capital.........

How much would an repayment mortage cost?

£2023.17 a month....

times 12 for the year...

£24278.04

Or £2054.04 more then the average person will earn..

So the express has stated as a headline that the average house will have a mortage cost of over 100% of the average salary.

:)

If someone else wants to work out how much you would have to rent that bad boy out for to break even.. :)

Just some sums.

some that perhaps the express may have done before the headline.

I can't believe you took the time to post that cr@p! Here's my take on it:

2 salaries, 25,500 & 22,000 buying a 180k place on a 90% mortgage = 3.4 times income.

Based on REALISTIC wage inflation (not the deliberately low 2% you used) of 4% means that on wage inflation alone, a similar couple will be looking at 4.4 times income for a 90% mortgage on a 360k place in 10 years. Nowhere near the disaster you claim.

Furthermore, the couple who bought today at 180k, 10 years from now, will have at least 200k as their deposit for their next property. So even with just wage inflation (ignoring job changes and promotions), they will comfortably be able to move up the property ladder still on a low mortgage multiple.

There really is no issue here, but one could be dreamt up if a person tried hard enough.

Edited by Time to raise the rents.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

exponentially

TTRTR's..

What is going up exponentially?

abd do read up on what mervin king ahs said about inflation and it's impact on the current levels of debt

What is going up exponentially?

go on..

tell me you know..

It's two things..

rental voids..

and

Bankrupsies

you are the mark..

Investors left a while ago

and the modal average salary is not what you are told.. ;)

Edited by apom

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I can't believe you took the time to post that cr@p! Here's my take on it:

2 salaries, 25,500 & 22,000 buying a 180k place on a 90% mortgage = 3.4 times income.

Based on REALISTIC wage inflation (not the deliberately low 2% you used) of 4% means that on wage inflation alone, a similar couple will be looking at 4.4 times income for a 90% mortgage on a 360k place in 10 years. Nowhere near the disaster you claim.

Furthermore, the couple who bought today at 180k, 10 years from now, will have at least 200k as their deposit for their next property. So even with just wage inflation (ignoring job changes and promotions), they will comfortably be able to move up the property ladder still on a low mortgage multiple.

There really is no issue here, but one could be dreamt up if a person tried hard enough.

Ah well, you then have to ask if prices have doubled?

In your example, in nominal terms they maybe have, in real terms they haven't.

The issue is that the sheeple see the headline and assume real terms.

NDL

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

exponentially

TTRTR's..

What is going up exponentially?

abd do read up on what mervin king ahs said about inflation and it's impact on the current levels of debt

What is going up exponentially?

go on..

tell me you know..

It's two things..

rental voids..

and

Bankrupsies

you are the mark..

Investors left a while ago

and the modal average salary is not what you are told.. ;)

I look forward to seeing your link to Mervin's promise of 2% wage inflation.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I can't believe you took the time to post that cr@p! Here's my take on it:

2 salaries, 25,500 & 22,000 buying a 180k place on a 90% mortgage = 3.4 times income.

Based on REALISTIC wage inflation (not the deliberately low 2% you used) of 4% means that on wage inflation alone, a similar couple will be looking at 4.4 times income for a 90% mortgage on a 360k place in 10 years. Nowhere near the disaster you claim.

Furthermore, the couple who bought today at 180k, 10 years from now, will have at least 200k as their deposit for their next property. So even with just wage inflation (ignoring job changes and promotions), they will comfortably be able to move up the property ladder still on a low mortgage multiple.

There really is no issue here, but one could be dreamt up if a person tried hard enough.

quick day dream

one of the things the VIs say is pushing up house prices is te number of single people, so forget this couple nonsense

secondly, IRs go up

thirdly, who buys the couple's £360k house as the couple beneath them won't have £200k deposit or more likely, even £100k deposit

and who buys the shitty 1 bedroom flat for £200k? don't tell me, an investor!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I look forward to seeing your link to Mervin's promise of 2% wage inflation.

you are joking....

Are you not joking??????????

ITS ALL HE HAS BEEN SAYING ............................................................

http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,3604,843624,00.html

Is this quick enough..

Last week when the BBC told of a healthy market quoting nationwides figures did you spot.

1: That the Nationwide has also stated that the market has turned. and the BBC had neglected to include this gem.

2: Some how this positive story took the space on the news that may have been reserved for the IMF's coments on the housing market and the economy,

TTRTR's,

You are playing with serious money that you have borrowed.

this is not a game.

Just because people are telling you want you want to hear you have to remember that that all you need to hear is what is actually happening.

What you have to bear in mind is that what I say will happen is what has happened to every market.

Don't be the last fool to believe in a market.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I look forward to seeing your link to Mervin's promise of 2% wage inflation.

I don't see how he can promise anything.

He's just a puppet. He is head of a committee that looks at market trends and they vote to set interest rates to try and meet a CPInflation target SET BY THE TREASURY.

Edited by Without_a_Paddle

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Furthermore, the couple who bought today at 180k, 10 years from now, will have at least 200k as their deposit for their next property.

And say their dream property now costs £300k in today's market, in a decade it will cost £600k (if not more)... so their magic £200k of free money is worth sweet FA, they are further behind moving up the ladder than before. This is the wonderful irony of rampant HPI.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I can't believe you took the time to post that cr@p! Here's my take on it:

2 salaries, 25,500 & 22,000 buying a 180k place on a 90% mortgage = 3.4 times income.

Based on REALISTIC wage inflation (not the deliberately low 2% you used) of 4% means that on wage inflation alone, a similar couple will be looking at 4.4 times income for a 90% mortgage on a 360k place in 10 years. Nowhere near the disaster you claim.

Furthermore, the couple who bought today at 180k, 10 years from now, will have at least 200k as their deposit for their next property. So even with just wage inflation (ignoring job changes and promotions), they will comfortably be able to move up the property ladder still on a low mortgage multiple.

There really is no issue here, but one could be dreamt up if a person tried hard enough.

I can`t believe I took the time to read that cr@p :D

The typical bull argument seems to rely on

1) Permanently low interest rates

2) Reasonably healthy levels of wage inflation

3) Two people earning approx ( govt. approved figs ) average wages

Unfortunately the way things are going , unemployment could expand rapidly as we follow the economy down the sh1tter.

If that happens there`s no telling what could happen to interest rates/inflation ( I remember the 1970`s )

Then couples will think themselves fortunate if only one of them is in meaningful employment <_<

Limpet

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can you not get that wages do not have to follow hpi when 3/5 buyers are investors?!!

Of course they do! If an investor buys a property to let it out, then he will only be able to let it out if the rent charged is affordable to potential tenants. This level of rent will therefore determine HPI, because if the rent is too low then the yield will be too low and therefore the investors will stay away. So wages DO have to follow HPI regardless of whether it is FTBs or BTLs buying.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Third, Mr King is nervous that homeowners may not realise that although low interest rates make mortgage repayments affordable, high inflation will not erode the value of their borrowing, as it did in the 1970s - and when they do catch on, house prices will plunge.

http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,3604,843624,00.html

Read and understand this.

low inflastion is here. and the effect is amongst us.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I can't believe you took the time to post that cr@p! Here's my take on it:

2 salaries, 25,500 & 22,000 buying a 180k place on a 90% mortgage = 3.4 times income.

Based on REALISTIC wage inflation (not the deliberately low 2% you used) of 4% means that on wage inflation alone, a similar couple will be looking at 4.4 times income for a 90% mortgage on a 360k place in 10 years. Nowhere near the disaster you claim.

Furthermore, the couple who bought today at 180k, 10 years from now, will have at least 200k as their deposit for their next property. So even with just wage inflation (ignoring job changes and promotions), they will comfortably be able to move up the property ladder still on a low mortgage multiple.

There really is no issue here, but one could be dreamt up if a person tried hard enough.

But TTRTR, if wages rise by 4% per annum, what's that going to do to interest rates? You can't have it both ways.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

he has aklso forgot spiraling population crash.

15 years ago it was 2.4 children.

Today it is 1.4

dropping..

soon this lower number will be having even lower numbers of kids..

Edited by apom

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Third, Mr King is nervous that homeowners may not realise that although low interest rates make mortgage repayments affordable, high inflation will not erode the value of their borrowing, as it did in the 1970s - and when they do catch on, house prices will plunge.

http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,3604,843624,00.html

Read and understand this.

low inflastion is here. and the effect is amongst us.

But it's not down to Mr. King.

It's the TREASURY that sets the CPI targets. If they change the target, then Mr. King and his committee are duty bound to try and meet the new CPI target.

Also, this speech he made is nearly FOUR YEARS OLD. When he was a deputy.

if wages rise by 4% per annum, what's that going to do to interest rates? You can't have it both ways.

Wages are currently rising at around 3.8% yoy and IRs are 4.5%.

Edited by Without_a_Paddle

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

and FTB's are less the 7%

lowest in history.

and

Rent does not begin to cover purchase at peak where I am.

Rent will not cover the interest in devon.

and prices can doublwe while wages got up 15%?

Can they....???

Really...??

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I can't believe you took the time to post that cr@p! Here's my take on it:

2 salaries, 25,500 & 22,000 buying a 180k place on a 90% mortgage = 3.4 times income.

Based on REALISTIC wage inflation (not the deliberately low 2% you used) of 4% means that on wage inflation alone, a similar couple will be looking at 4.4 times income for a 90% mortgage on a 360k place in 10 years. Nowhere near the disaster you claim.

Furthermore, the couple who bought today at 180k, 10 years from now, will have at least 200k as their deposit for their next property. So even with just wage inflation (ignoring job changes and promotions), they will comfortably be able to move up the property ladder still on a low mortgage multiple.

There really is no issue here, but one could be dreamt up if a person tried hard enough.

So take way above average gross household income (2005: £32,000) and assume higher than can be expected wage inflation in a "low inflationary period" (target 2%) and pretend that this proves your case?

Take a look at Average gross household income in all Lancashire boroughs (rich and poor). You will note the average of £26,000 for this county and the fact that 50% of its population by definition bring home less than this figure between them.

This country is bigger than London and the South East!

Edited by Prude

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

you are joking....

Are you not joking??????????

ITS ALL HE HAS BEEN SAYING ............................................................

http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,3604,843624,00.html

Is this quick enough..

Last week when the BBC told of a healthy market quoting nationwides figures did you spot.

1: That the Nationwide has also stated that the market has turned. and the BBC had neglected to include this gem.

2: Some how this positive story took the space on the news that may have been reserved for the IMF's coments on the housing market and the economy,

TTRTR's,

You are playing with serious money that you have borrowed.

this is not a game.

Just because people are telling you want you want to hear you have to remember that that all you need to hear is what is actually happening.

What you have to bear in mind is that what I say will happen is what has happened to every market.

Don't be the last fool to believe in a market.

:lol::lol::lol: Now you're really cracking me up!

I'll let you in on a secret......it's 2006 now & there hasn't been an HPC!

Were you aware of that?

:lol::lol::lol:

BTW. Will you be posting a link promising 2% wage inflation tonight?

Ah well, you then have to ask if prices have doubled?

In your example, in nominal terms they maybe have, in real terms they haven't.

The issue is that the sheeple see the headline and assume real terms.

NDL

I disagree.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

if you actually calculate his combines salary.. of a couple and work out the take home against the cost of the mortgage..

you will still giggle.. its not over 100%, which I liked though..

Bless... Wages are going to increase faster then inflation.. so are houses..

Inflation.. if everything increases faster then inflation..

what exactly do you think inflation measures?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

and FTB's are less the 7%

lowest in history.

and

Rent does not begin to cover purchase at peak where I am.

Rent will not cover the interest in devon.

and prices can doublwe while wages got up 15%?

Can they....???

Really...??

FWIW I seriously doubt house prices will double in the next 10 years, more like a stagnation followed by a steady rise with wage inflation.

i.e. no big nominal falls in the next few years. Prices will correct in real terms but it will take many years IMO.

Of course, if the lid comes off inflation then all bets are off...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.