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kingofnowhere

Bba And Bsa Lending (and Bsa Approval Data)

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BSA approvals and lending

http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&ar...&action=article

UK mortgage approvals surge to 5.64 bln stg in March, highest since 1988

Article layout: raw

LONDON (AFX) - UK mortgage approvals surged in March to their highest levels since 1988, suggesting that the UK housing market remains very buoyant, figures from the Building Societies Association showed.

Mortgage approvals -- which are a good indicator mortgage lending in the coming months -- jumped by 5.64 bln stg in March, up from 3.65 in February.

Mortgage lending by building societies was also higher, with seasonally adjusted net advances rising by 815 mln stg, up from 629 in February and 781 in March 2005.

"Lending activity is well up on a year ago, suggesting building societies are taking a significant share as the market recovers relatively strongly this spring. Particularly notable is the high approvals figure for March, suggesting a high level of lending as the spring progresses," said Adrian Coles, director general of the BSA.

http://today.reuters.co.uk/investing/finan...BRITAIN-BBA.XML

British mortgage lending growth near 2-yr high-BBA

Mon Apr 24, 2006 9:30 AM BST

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LONDON, April 24 (Reuters) - Underlying British mortgage lending growth jumped in March to its highest in nearly two years, the British Bankers' Association said on Monday, in data that suggested the housing market remains buoyant.

Underlying mortgage lending rose by 5.4 billion pounds in March, the highest since June 2004 when the housing market was at its peak, and up from a 4.7 billion pound rise in February. It was also well above the average of 4.9 billion over the previous six months, BBA said.

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Hi

No comments on the most important bit of news from the housing market today?

KON. Is this lending to buy properties by first time buyers or owner occupiers who bought their house several years ago remortgaging? I thought I saw on an earlier thread that it is almost all the latter. No new life is being breathed into the housing market, even on the back of these numbers.

Oh by the way, what's your current thinking on interest rates? You were a strong believer in the UK IR cut theory. How does that sit with the markets now pricing in a 100% chance of a rise in September?

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Oh by the way, what's your current thinking on interest rates? You were a strong believer in the UK IR cut theory. How does that sit with the markets now pricing in a 100% chance of a rise in September?

Though I am 100% sure that IRs are not going to go down atleast until year end, but can you point me to the source that tells 'markets now pricing in a 100% chance of a rise in September', what's making it happen?

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KON. Is this lending to buy properties by first time buyers or owner occupiers who bought their house several years ago remortgaging? I thought I saw on an earlier thread that it is almost all the latter. No new life is being breathed into the housing market, even on the back of these numbers.

Oh by the way, what's your current thinking on interest rates? You were a strong believer in the UK IR cut theory. How does that sit with the markets now pricing in a 100% chance of a rise in September?

Hi the lending and approvals will be for both remortgage and approvals, but there isn't really any reason to expect the lending split to be significantly diff from previous months. (we haven't had an interest rate cut to make people want to change to a cheaper deal) About 50% will be for house purchase.

These numbers would imply that BOE approvals for house purchase will be about 119K up from 115K (Very prov number). this equates to strong HPI, which we seem to be getting of about 2% a quarter

Who's pricing in 100% chance of a rise in rates by Sept?!?

Short Sterling 95.31 therefore rate 4.69 less credit of 0.15% (6months out) give an expcted interest rate of 4.54 or a 0.04/0.25 chance or a 16% chance.

See pages 9-10 why you have to adjust short sterling

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publication...etin/qb0404.pdf

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Though I am 100% sure that IRs are not going to go down atleast until year end, but can you point me to the source that tells 'markets now pricing in a 100% chance of a rise in September', what's making it happen?

Inflation from oil, metals etc. and knock on effects from the FED and BoJ raising their interest rates.

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Inflation from oil, metals etc. and knock on effects from the FED and BoJ raising their interest rates.

So the markets aren't pricing in with a 100% chance that rates will rise in Sept? In fact the markets are only pricing in a small chance that rates will rise by sept?

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Who's pricing in 100% chance of a rise in rates by Sept?!?

Short Sterling 95.31 therefore rate 4.69 less credit of 0.15% (6months out) give an expcted interest rate of 4.54 or a 0.04/0.25 chance or a 16% chance.

See pages 9-10 why you have to adjust short sterling

Sorry, you're right. I was looking at DEC contract. Anyways, let us know how the IR cut idea is coming along.....

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Sorry, you're right. I was looking at DEC contract. Anyways, let us know how the IR cut idea is coming along.....

Well, if it doesn't come along (although I still expect the next move to be down rather than up), it will only be because the economy and the housing market is doing better than I though it would.

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A young Scots lad named Gordon bought a donkey from an old farmer for

£100.00. The farmer agreed to deliver the donkey the next day, but when

the farmer arrived he hung his head and said, "The donkey's on the

truck, but I have some bad news...he's dead."

Gordon replied, "Well then, just gimme my money back."

The farmer said, "I can't do that. I went and spent it already."

Gordon said, "Och then, just unload the donkey anyway".

The farmer asked, "What are you going to do with him?"

Gordon said, "I'm gonna raffle him off."

To which the farmer exclaimed, "You can't raffle off a dead donkey!"

But Gordon, with a big smile on his face, said "Sure I can. Jes'

watch me. I won't tell anybody that he's dead."

A month later the farmer met up with Gordon and asked, "What happened

with that dead donkey?" Gordon said, "I raffled him off. I sold 500

tickets at two pounds a piece and made a profit of £698.00."

Totally amazed, the farmer asked, "Didn't anyone complain that you had

stolen their money because you lied about the donkey being dead?"

Gordon replied, "The only guy who found out about the donkey being dead

was the raffle winner, when he came to claim his prize. So I gave him

his £2 back plus £200 extra, which is double the going value of a

donkey, so he thought I was a great guy."

Gordon grew up and eventually became the Chancellor of the Exchequer,

and no matter how many times he lied or how much money he stole from

British voters, as long as he gave them back some of the stolen money,

most of them thought he was a great guy.

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A young Scots lad named Gordon bought a donkey from an old farmer for

£100.00. The farmer agreed to deliver the donkey the next day, but when

the farmer arrived he hung his head and said, "The donkey's on the

truck, but I have some bad news...he's dead."

Gordon replied, "Well then, just gimme my money back."

The farmer said, "I can't do that. I went and spent it already."

Gordon said, "Och then, just unload the donkey anyway".

The farmer asked, "What are you going to do with him?"

Gordon said, "I'm gonna raffle him off."

To which the farmer exclaimed, "You can't raffle off a dead donkey!"

But Gordon, with a big smile on his face, said "Sure I can. Jes'

watch me. I won't tell anybody that he's dead."

A month later the farmer met up with Gordon and asked, "What happened

with that dead donkey?" Gordon said, "I raffled him off. I sold 500

tickets at two pounds a piece and made a profit of £698.00."

Totally amazed, the farmer asked, "Didn't anyone complain that you had

stolen their money because you lied about the donkey being dead?"

Gordon replied, "The only guy who found out about the donkey being dead

was the raffle winner, when he came to claim his prize. So I gave him

his £2 back plus £200 extra, which is double the going value of a

donkey, so he thought I was a great guy."

Gordon grew up and eventually became the Chancellor of the Exchequer,

and no matter how many times he lied or how much money he stole from

British voters, as long as he gave them back some of the stolen money,

most of them thought he was a great guy.

I like that :)

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Didnt Merv say if consumers keep spending he will keep raising rates? What happened to that then?

So busy patting themselves on the back happy in the knowledge that they had engineered a soft landing they then went and dropped rates.

The bigger the boom the bigger the bust, at this rate we will have a depression, not a recession.

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Hi

No comments on the most important bit of news from the housing market today?

True. Equally, this is perhaps even more important news on the housing market also that has not attractede much comment--perhaps more a case of stunned silence? :

http://today.reuters.com/investing/finance...P-JAPAN-BOJ.XML

G7 gives free hand on policy as BOJ aims to tighten

Sun Apr 23, 2006 1:12 PM ET

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LONDON, April 24 (Reuters) - Underlying British mortgage lending growth jumped in March to its highest in nearly two years, the British Bankers' Association said on Monday, in data that suggested the housing market remains buoyant.

Underlying mortgage lending rose by 5.4 billion pounds in March, the highest since June 2004 when the housing market was at its peak, and up from a 4.7 billion pound rise in February. It was also well above the average of 4.9 billion over the previous six months, BBA said.

KoN, I have no idea what they define as 'underlying' mortgage lending (maybe it's true house purchases?), but do they adjust for the length of the month? The reason I ask is as follows:

Feb = 4.7 bln, 20 working days in month = 235 mln per working day

March = 5.4 bln, 23 working days in month = 234.8 mln per working day

6-month ave = 29.4 bln total, 126 working days (my calc) = 233.3 mln per working day

So, Feb & March virtually identical and both roughly 0.7% higher than the 6-moth average. Not quite as spectacular as the headline implies......I can't find any info from BBA as to whether they already account for this......do you know?

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RB

The cat has been away so long the mice have forgotten what it was like when he was around.Perhaps that explains the lack of reaction or perhaps people sincerely do not appreciate the consequences. To be perfectly honest I do not know if I fully understand them but all I know at the moment is that the BOJ seems to have served plenty of notice to its customers (G7) that things are going to get more costly and this report seems to say that the punters have just said "Yea, OK".

Again I don't know if that's "Yea, OK" (and genuinely its no problem) or "Yea, OK" (that could hurt but I'm not going to flinch in front of this lot).

What's your highly regarded (by 90% of the board) opinion?

Edited by delite1

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True. Equally, this is perhaps even more important news on the housing market also that has not attractede much comment--perhaps more a case of stunned silence? :

It is a bit like mentioning "The Scottish Play"......

... funnily enough maybe that is how Tony and Gordon's tenure will be known in the future.

btp

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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