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Flat Bear

Are House Prices Directly Effected By Net Immigration?

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As you may be aware, John Prescott's dept is setting up its 20 year plan for the SE. His plan for massive growth in new housing with 66% on brownfield and 33% on green with ratios for key workers and "affordable" etc etc with some provisions for road and facility infastructure but hardly any for utility (water, waste, and power). There are admissions that more congestion, cramped conditions, and worse services are to be expected and they are resigned that this is the only way.

This is all based on the "required" growth in immigration and that most would need to be centred around the capital, and as we are all aware they think they know best on how we live and what jobs are more important than others.

The indigenous population of Britain was in fact shrinking, maybe slowly, but it was still shrinking (certain politicians actually worrying we had a temporary problem with age distribution using this as an excuse for higher immigration). Population was around 52m to 55m for quite some time but is now believed to be heading over 70m quickly and way beyond over the next decade. Government do not know the true figures and have been underestimating to date.

There is a simple solution which all political parties have been too frightened to address (apart from far right, very probably racist orientated)

Because of the now seriousness of this growth there is no room for half measures and I now believe a zero immigration policy would be a neccessity for the foreseeable future, together with financial incentives for repatriation and less incentives, especially tax, for having children.

There would be massive problems in trying to impliment this including British Citizens wanting to marry foriegn nationals, employment, legalities with those holding GB passport but not taking up residence and those that involve other countries etc etc etc... but drastic measures are now neccessary.

I believe it very important that all would be treated the same whether any requests from immigrants able to give financial or any special skill or from whatever country, religious background, their appearance etc.. and all refugees needing asylum would need be refused (maybe we would then look closer at the regime they are running from and make a real stand against it) It would also mean our making our own decisions about our future and we would need to leave certain organisations such as EEC.

If other countries are growing (just for the sake of growth) and consuming more and more we can not really do much about that but we can at least take a unilateral stance and maybe other countries in time will follow, and hopefully there will be a future and fulfilling life for our species.

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i dont think it has any real impact. so many people leave the uk. it sort of balances itself out. the BNP cant see this and are using this a tool to press skint ftps into thinking its the fault of immigrants, when its the fault of little greedy white people btling and flipping.

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Some think we have 3 parties running but it’s a one party state where the plan is to raise more and more taxes form us all and make us work harder and harder by undercutting our wages with cheap imported labour.

In this game they only argue about who’s sitting next to who at the party paid for by joe public

They are collectively scared to death of the BNP because these guys are not playing in a phoney game, they represent what many people in the UK want and that goes much further then immigration.

20,000 went out to see the queen today and 55,000,000 paid for the cost of the party. Charles own more land in the UK than anyone else so what’s he doing to help his homeless subjects.

BNP will say it as it is and put the power back with the people so give em a go unless you want a police state with a silicon chip up your bum.

Fred

"dont think it has any real impact. so many people leave the uk."

Yes but look at who's leaving and what your getting in return and why are all these people leaving.

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Some think we have 3 parties running but it’s a one party state where the plan is to raise more and more taxes form us all and make us work harder and harder by undercutting our wages with cheap imported labour.

In this game they only argue about who’s sitting next to who at the party paid for by joe public

They are collectively scared to death of the BNP because these guys are not playing in a phoney game, they represent what many people in the UK want and that goes much further then immigration.

20,000 went out to see the queen today and 55,000,000 paid for the cost of the party. Charles own more land in the UK than anyone else so what’s he doing to help his homeless subjects.

BNP will say it as it is and put the power back with the people so give em a go unless you want a police state with a silicon chip up your bum.

Fred

"dont think it has any real impact. so many people leave the uk."

Yes but look at who's leaving and what your getting in return and why are all these people leaving.

I am very concerned that the BNP's real agenda is some sort of white supremacy or some other racist nature. Are they looking at immigration controls for the right reason. You may say the ends justify the means but do they accept the principle, for example, that anyone that was born in this country irrespective of colour or creed is still British? It is probably the one organisation where I would be in favour of possitive discrimanation ie afro-carribean etc in positions of power, I would take them much more seriously and back the few policies of theirs I am familiar with.

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i dont think it has any real impact. so many people leave the uk. it sort of balances itself out. the BNP cant see this and are using this a tool to press skint ftps into thinking its the fault of immigrants, when its the fault of little greedy white people btling and flipping.

Sorry Fred but that's plain wrong. I've not seen a single reliable source claiming we have a net zero pop growth due to immigration/emigration. It doesn't balance out -

the governments own actuaries are using a figure of net inward immigration of 130,000 per annum - according to migration watch...

Migration Watchs view the population projections make very conservative assumptions about migration. Net migration in the past 5 years has averaged 158,000 and the governments immigration policies promote and encourage further increases in migration. Additionally the GADs assumption make no allowance for failed asylum seekers who remain in the UK (and the vast majority do) nor for illegal immigration.

now we can have an argument about whether that 130,000 - 158,000 increase per annum needs to be housed and will therefore have an impact on house prices please don't try to deny that there is a massive increase in population year on year due to immigration.

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I am very concerned that the BNP's real agenda is some sort of white supremacy or some other racist nature. Are they looking at immigration controls for the right reason. You may say the ends justify the means but do they accept the principle, for example, that anyone that was born in this country irrespective of colour or creed is still British? It is probably the one organisation where I would be in favour of possitive discrimanation ie afro-carribean etc in positions of power, I would take them much more seriously and back the few policies of theirs I am familiar with.

They are ethno-nationalists so they are not going to agree that anybody born here is British. However their policy is not to deport those law abiding non British residing here legally.

See their website to get their policies from the horses mouth.

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"I am very concerned that the BNP's real agenda is some sort of white supremacy or some other racist nature"

no nothing like that they are space monsters that happen to prefer white meat when they are not eating lizards, surly the BBC told you this much at least

Now if keeping jobs in the UK for the workers of the UK is racist then i'll guess i'm racist or into "white supremacy" as you say

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i dont think it has any real impact. so many people leave the uk. it sort of balances itself out.

Balances itself out? The recent National Office of Statistics info released on immigration showed ~570,000 immigrants entered the UK and 120,000 Brits emigrated - so thats and increase in population of 450,000 - ie very significant.

Anyone who thinks mass immigration in the UK isnt a problem either;

a) hasnt been to a city centre recently and noticed the ethnic make-up

B ) is an immigrant/child of

c) is a hardcore leftie and will shout "racist" when the word "immigrant" is mentioned

I dont know the number of new homes built in the UK annually, but Im pretty sure its significantly below 450,000. Therefore immigration is bound to have an effect on UK house prices, its basic supply and demand.

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It would also mean our making our own decisions about our future and we would need to leave certain organisations such as EEC.

I wonder whether the immigration issue will signal the end for Britains membership of the EU?

I suspect that if or when we have a recession and day rates for the semi and unskilled really come under pressure then the mass migration of Easter European workers could well become major issue! Cameron's successor to take us out perrhaps?

By the way - someone I know in Rochdale is employing a Polish brickie and Polish decorator for well under the normal UK rates (though it is cash, no cheques proszę). They've come over to stay with three other Poles who are work for an agency in a local factory (also for peanut wages I believe). And the brickie is hoping to bring Mrs Brickie and the little bricks over when he finds full time employment!

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"I am very concerned that the BNP's real agenda is some sort of white supremacy or some other racist nature"

no nothing like that they are space monsters that happen to prefer white meat when they are not eating lizards, surly the BBC told you this much at least

Now if keeping jobs in the UK for the workers of the UK is racist then i'll guess i'm racist or into "white supremacy" as you say

No I dont believe many concludsions the BBC come up with, they seem to have their own agenda.

So you believe the BNP are racist? I had come to that concludsion some time ago but recently I suppose was hoping I was wrong and there was a party I would feel I could vote for who would face up to the immigration issue.

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As you may be aware, John Prescott's dept is setting up its 20 year plan for the SE. His plan for massive growth in new housing with 66% on brownfield and 33% on green

Brownfield is already >70% and rising.

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No I dont believe many concludsions the BBC come up with, they seem to have their own agenda.

So you believe the BNP are racist? I had come to that concludsion some time ago but recently I suppose was hoping I was wrong and there was a party I would feel I could vote for who would face up to the immigration issue.

Depends how you define "racist".

In any event it's just a word. Used to be a time when the word "racist" would draw a pavlovian response of white liberal guilt. Not any more.

Read the BNP's manifesto. If the BNP has policies which you agree with then vote for them, if not don't, it really is that simple.

Nulab seem to be happy to invade a foreign country on the basis of a lie - Nulab have the blood of thousands of Arabs on their hands (not to mention over 100 of our soldiers who should be alive today). To date I am not aware of a single death directly attributable to BNP policy.

So whose more racist? Nulab - or the BNP?

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I dont know the number of new homes built in the UK annually, but Im pretty sure its significantly below 450,000. Therefore immigration is bound to have an effect on UK house prices, its basic supply and demand.

House Bulding is keeping up with population increase - but immigration coupled with divorce means housing stock is in short supply. See:

http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=9774976

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maybe im wrong then. i thought the number of people leaving uk was about 250,000 pa and the number statying about the same. i dont know for sure.

either way.

if i saw some black faces on the BNP membership then i would seriously look into the polices they have.

but from personal experience they are pretty much hardcore white rasicts from mostly meaty areas.

for me nationalism is the fastest way toget our ID cards + stormtroopers on street corners.

(to round up undesirables ect).

i think the BNP has a lot of growing up to do, but should they manage to be more 'inclusive' to all british citizens not just burnley toughs. maybe things would shape up better.

i would rather live next to a house of the very blackest, most islamic immigrants than a house full of tatooed, skinheaded unemployed 'sieg heil'ers and former cat C lags and their Oi' music.

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maybe im wrong then. i thought the number of people leaving uk was about 250,000 pa and the number statying about the same. i dont know for sure.

either way.

if i saw some black faces on the BNP membership then i would seriously look into the polices they have.

but from personal experience they are pretty much hardcore white rasicts from mostly meaty areas.

for me nationalism is the fastest way toget our ID cards + stormtroopers on street corners.

(to round up undesirables ect).

i think the BNP has a lot of growing up to do, but should they manage to be more 'inclusive' to all british citizens not just burnley toughs. maybe things would shape up better.

i would rather live next to a house of the very blackest, most islamic immigrants than a house full of tatooed, skinheaded unemployed 'sieg heil'ers and former cat C lags and their Oi' music.

Agreed

But the question was not really about BNP and this is the trouble, everyone "assumes" if you think immigration is an important issue then you must vote BNP and thus must be racist.

If you assume you will make an ass out of u and me (not directed at anyone in particular)

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Why is it that BNP voters always manage to say "I'm not racist but..."

...if you're coloured we'll help you get back to your real home

...if you're coloured you're technically not british just a 'guest'

and I love the way the BNP voting chavs accuse immigrants of being a drain on our society

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The original question was about a zero immigration policy but not about the BNP or race. The bigger parties are brushing these issues under the carpet with dire consequences. The attitude "If you want to control immigration you must vote BNP" will undoubtably increase the BNP vote, and I believe it will be substantial. Many people and commentators will fob this off as just protest votes, which will futher insense the voters as well as causing more racial tension. If you look back in history this is exactly as it was in the early 30s and as soon as the Nazi party had partial power and it was seen as socially acceptable to vote for the party it made ultimate power much easier. I think it very important at least one of the major parties should take a very serious look at this issue taking the race element out of the equation.

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Why is it that BNP voters always manage to say "I'm not racist but..."

...if you're coloured we'll help you get back to your real home

...if you're coloured you're technically not british just a 'guest'

and I love the way the BNP voting chavs accuse immigrants of being a drain on our society

I take it from the above you are anti BNP and have had a lot of dialogue with BNP voters, which is interesting i suppose but what is your view on the population trend and current government policy regarding immigration and housing? Do you think it possible for the next generation in say 30 years to be able to have the standard of living in this country we are enjoying? or maybe you are as old as me and you dont have children and you do not care?

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studies and common sense show the two major drivers of house price growth is population growth in key ages(ages when you first buy a home or rent) and growth in real incomes.if you have growing population and growing incomes prices will rise but this doesnt prevent a crash by any means.

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http://thebusinessonline.com/Stories.aspx?...E04E6284&page=1

Spencer assumed a net addition to the workforce of 120,000 workers between the third quarter of 2004 and the same period of 2005, then another 100,000 between the third quarter of 2005 and the same period of 2006, with an extra 80,000 workers still to come between the third quarter of 2006 and the same quarter of 2007. This gives a total net addition of 300,000, about 1% of the labour force. Given all these workers have jobs, this translates into a roughly 1% rise in economic output.

Not all of the migrants have taken up low-skilled jobs. In absolute terms, the largest number of entrants in 2005 – at nearly a third of all registrations – was in administration, business and management services. Less surprisingly, around 72,500 workers (22% of registrations) came to jobs in hospitality and catering, with 39,500 (12%) more in agriculture. Other large inflows were reported into manufacturing (25,000 workers, 8% of all registrations) and food, fish and meat processing (17,000 workers, 5.2% of the total inflow).

Of course these figures don't include those (self employed and often non taxpaying) migrants that don't register.

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http://thebusinessonline.com/Stories.aspx?...E04E6284&page=1

Spencer assumed a net addition to the workforce of 120,000 workers between the third quarter of 2004 and the same period of 2005, then another 100,000 between the third quarter of 2005 and the same period of 2006, with an extra 80,000 workers still to come between the third quarter of 2006 and the same quarter of 2007. This gives a total net addition of 300,000, about 1% of the labour force. Given all these workers have jobs, this translates into a roughly 1% rise in economic output.

Not all of the migrants have taken up low-skilled jobs. In absolute terms, the largest number of entrants in 2005 – at nearly a third of all registrations – was in administration, business and management services. Less surprisingly, around 72,500 workers (22% of registrations) came to jobs in hospitality and catering, with 39,500 (12%) more in agriculture. Other large inflows were reported into manufacturing (25,000 workers, 8% of all registrations) and food, fish and meat processing (17,000 workers, 5.2% of the total inflow).

Of course these figures don't include those (self employed and often non taxpaying) migrants that don't register.

OK

These figures are just for those from eastern Europe and he has only assumed these figures.

They are actually trying to make an arguement in favour of mass immigration, well I suppose they must try and make it palatable and I must admit the spin is as good as usual standards. But it does tell us the Government know there is to be immigration on the scale we have not seen before.

When I heard them say London must(no consultation needed) absorb a population growth equivalent to that of the population of Leeds in the next 10 years my initial thought was I didnt realize Leeds was such a small place.

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Do you think it possible for the next generation in say 30 years to be able to have the standard of living in this country we are enjoying? care?

Yes I do, although that's not to say we'll not be overtaken by other emerging economies. So we won't have to fight each other over a meal, but we probably be lower down in the rich list of countries.

and before any BNP supporter suggests otherwise - I also think that if you stop immigration & increased protectionism - it would only send us further down the rich list.

I have no problem with immigration so long as they work and pay their dues - if i had the choice between a hard working guy from poland and a good old british born scrubber - i know who i'd rather kick out of the country.

That's the problem with the west in general, everyone thinks it's their birthright to be better off than the people on east.

as for housing, I live in York it's so white up here you need sunglasses - claims of the country being overrun by immigrants (while probably underreported by Labour) it's certainly not what the BNP would like you to think.

House prices have always been expensive in york, driven ever higher by white commuters to leeds & london. I blame cheap credit and the popular view of property as an investment rather than an expense (in the case of a home purchase).

maybe you are as old as me and you don’t have children and you do not care?

You imply that because I'm anti-BNP I'm somehow unBritish or I don't care - I just happen to see entire generations of white families live their lives on benefits yet I've seen immigrants who came over with nothing, open a kebab stand, expand into a shop and make something worthwhile.

There's one thing i've learned - the people who grow up expecting handouts, don't generally contribute very much to society and blame everybody else for their shortcomings - those who know they have to make something happen for themselves are the real credit to the country.

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Yes I do, although that's not to say we'll not be overtaken by other emerging economies. So we won't have to fight each other over a meal, but we probably be lower down in the rich list of countries.

and before any BNP supporter suggests otherwise - I also think that if you stop immigration & increased protectionism - it would only send us further down the rich list.

I have no problem with immigration so long as they work and pay their dues - if i had the choice between a hard working guy from poland and a good old british born scrubber - i know who i'd rather kick out of the country.

That's the problem with the west in general, everyone thinks it's their birthright to be better off than the people on east.

as for housing, I live in York it's so white up here you need sunglasses - claims of the country being overrun by immigrants (while probably underreported by Labour) it's certainly not what the BNP would like you to think.

House prices have always been expensive in york, driven ever higher by white commuters to leeds & london. I blame cheap credit and the popular view of property as an investment rather than an expense (in the case of a home purchase).

You imply that because I'm anti-BNP I'm somehow unBritish or I don't care - I just happen to see entire generations of white families live their lives on benefits yet I've seen immigrants who came over with nothing, open a kebab stand, expand into a shop and make something worthwhile.

There's one thing i've learned - the people who grow up expecting handouts, don't generally contribute very much to society and blame everybody else for their shortcomings - those who know they have to make something happen for themselves are the real credit to the country.

I agree with much of your sentiments and overall (up until say 5 years ago) believe integration of other cultures into Britain to be a good thing. I did not realize there were still parts of England with such low influx of immigrants, I wonder if there are any other towns like York and why so few have settled there?

The problems we face now is the shear volume which if the numbers stay as they are or actually do increase the infastructure will collapse. Im afraid to say you will not be able to isolate yourself in York as this will effect everyone.

I understand what you are implying by protectionism and the implications of not allowing a free market no matter how unbalanced (far east prices/exchange rate) but if we can not protect our population what can we protect and what is worth protecting if not the people?

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I agree with much of your sentiments and overall (up until say 5 years ago) believe integration of other cultures into Britain to be a good thing. I did not realize there were still parts of England with such low influx of immigrants, I wonder if there are any other towns like York and why so few have settled there?

The problems we face now is the shear volume which if the numbers stay as they are or actually do increase the infastructure will collapse. Im afraid to say you will not be able to isolate yourself in York as this will effect everyone.

I understand what you are implying by protectionism and the implications of not allowing a free market no matter how unbalanced (far east prices/exchange rate) but if we can not protect our population what can we protect and what is worth protecting if not the people?

One more time for the ...... among us..

There are more immigrants in France, Germany, Austria, Germany, Belgium and most other European EU15 countries.. The largest HPI has been seen in Anglo-Saxon countries. Could it be that "Anglo-Saxon" policies are to blame rather than immigrants??

I’m starting to despair..

Beckhams..

Pop Idol...

BB...

ID-cards

and now this crap..

The peasants are truly revolting..

That’s what I love about the class system. It means that the "cerebrally challenged" among the indigenous population can also end up at the bottom of the pile. And more often than not do

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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