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Daily Mail Today - Great News For Bears

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"A record £28.31billion worth of home loans were taken out last month. The mortgage boom is being driven by London and the South East, where the housing market is undergoing a revival after two years of stagnation"

Spot the good news for the bears?

No - the "record £28.31billion worth of home loans" is good news for the bulls and trying to argue otherwise IMO puts us in denial

Its the "revival after two years of stagnation" bit

The Daily Mail kept that one quiet for the last couple of years

Remember a HPC is only a HPC looking back - Its on track - don't worry

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"A record £28.31billion worth of home loans were taken out last month. The mortgage boom is being driven by London and the South East, where the housing market is undergoing a revival after two years of stagnation"

Spot the good news for the bears?

No - the "record £28.31billion worth of home loans" is good news for the bulls and trying to argue otherwise IMO puts us in denial

Its the "revival after two years of stagnation" bit

The Daily Mail kept that one quiet for the last couple of years

Remember a HPC is only a HPC looking back - Its on track - don't worry

Even though I don't read or much care for the Daily Mail, I have to credit them with a double page article about 8 months ago advising what FTBs should do for the next 6-12 months on region.

So far, that is the only mainstream statement of doubt over the viability of the housing market, I have seen.

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There is a spring bounce in London for sure, but most of us expected that.

The key thing is not to get sucked into it and lose all rational thought. This makes the overall situation worse, and a crash more likely.

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Even though I don't read or much care for the Daily Mail, I have to credit them with a double page article about 8 months ago advising what FTBs should do for the next 6-12 months on region.

So far, that is the only mainstream statement of doubt over the viability of the housing market, I have seen.

I only read it to follow advertisements placed by my clients, but it does have a lot of influence (not as much as the Sun, though)

It seems that the VI message coming across, is

"The housing market is brilliant, after being a bit poorly for the last couple of years. Oh we forgot to tell you that, we didn't want to panic you and we didn't want to affect the ad sales in our property supplement"

"record £28.31billion worth of home loans" is good news for the bulls

--

I disagree.

That is an enormous amount of money being pumped into Property.

And the tiny upwards move that was associated with such a huge pump, looks profoundly bearish to me

I agree with your disagreement???

However, I’m posting from a “Daily paper, what you read, is what you believe perspective”

The finer economic facts are lost on many people that read the Daily Mail

Others, that may understand it, won’t care to think about it because their house has doubled in price

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Even though I don't read or much care for the Daily Mail, I have to credit them with a double page article about 8 months ago advising what FTBs should do for the next 6-12 months on region.

So far, that is the only mainstream statement of doubt over the viability of the housing market, I have seen.

Funny you should say that, today they spout shoite :angry: One of those articles that appear to be written from the patronising view point of ftbs being some lab species...sharedspaces gets a mention again, spent a lot on pr young Richard, appears to be working, if mainstream exposure leads to increased take up <_<

Helping hands for first-time buyers

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages/art...56&in_page_id=8

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"record £28.31billion worth of home loans" is good news for the bulls

--

I disagree.

That is an enormous amount of money being pumped into Property.

And the tiny upwards move that was associated with such a huge pump, looks profoundly bearish to me

Exactly

It seems the "greater fools" are buying using borrowed money as many others are exiting the market

This must be the last few, surely. :huh:

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I have to say I am suprised that you are all suprised.

For some years now each of you have been egging each other on, and slating anyone who tells you the real truth.

Property has been going up, it has been selling, and people are making money from it today.

This is no spring bounce, its an onward and upward trend.

However, its gonna go very soon now you all just called it far too early, 5years too early for some of you.

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They're not all fools.

Spoken to a few workers from the city who are piling in with IO mortgages whilst investing heavily into stocks and shares. These guys will change to repayment when they get their bonuses...or make money on the markets and dump down bigger deposits.

These guys keep their investments diverse so even if property does screw up they're covered.

Sadly, this strategy is way beyond my means, or income.

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They're not all fools.

Spoken to a few workers from the city who are piling in with IO mortgages whilst investing heavily into stocks and shares. These guys will change to repayment when they get their bonuses...or make money on the markets and dump down bigger deposits.

These guys keep their investments diverse so even if property does screw up they're covered.

Sadly, this strategy is way beyond my means, or income.

Apologies from the Fox for earlier error just finding my way around the system. The Fox wants a nice big crash but is becoming sceptical. If worldwide growth is over 4% and London is the centre for the super rich then that is, potentially, a heck of a lot of money flooding into our property system. Yes it's money that could disappear quite quickly and go somewhere else but at the moment it's pouring in.

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They're not all fools.

Spoken to a few workers from the city who are piling in with IO mortgages whilst investing heavily into stocks and shares. These guys will change to repayment when they get their bonuses...or make money on the markets and dump down bigger deposits.

These guys keep their investments diverse so even if property does screw up they're covered.

Sadly, this strategy is way beyond my means, or income.

The value of (please insert from list) your home, stocks, shares, other investments, can go down as well as up.

Nope, these could be the biggest fools, they could lose more and quicker.

See them for what they are, very over leveraged gamblers betting in numerous asset classes on the hope shares will rise so they can get their dream bonuses.

The higher the stakes the more you can lose

Edited by Flat Bear

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The potential is for sure there to lose a lot of money, however as they say you have to speculate to accumulate!!.

The smart money will sniff the peak and leave the market leaving the average Joe holding the baby.

It is an absolute certainty in my mind that this can only end in a crash, the concept of stagnation is no longer an option. The money on loan is now astronomical in proportion and banks are lending to everyone and anyone.

I myself recently purchased a car for 8K, used my savings to make the purchase and then repaid them with a loan at 4.75% from Cahoot. The loan was agreed over the phone in less than a couple of minutes, its that easy now.

Having Liquid assets to tide you through a bad period is what its going to be about in the near future. When the credit restrictions kick in to hold it all back many people will be shocked at how insesitive the friendly banks are going to be.

Getting Cheap Money, for little effort for so long, then seeing it dissapear overnight and a return to real interest rates is going to knock a lot of people sideways.

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However, its gonna go very soon now you all just called it far too early, 5years too early for some of you.

5 years before the inexorable slide? Not an unlikely scenario given the amount of cheap money sloshing around the system, and a government intent on at least delaying the inevitable. A severe correction is inevitable and not in dispute IMO. But it's teh timescales which concerns me.

The issue is how long?

The country is not even yoy negative yet. For me that's the first stage and once that happens I can start to relax . Another 5 years waiting for that to happen will break most bears. We're so fra from being yoy negative it beggars belief.

These figures are extremely bullish for the short term IMO. They show the market has a lot of steam left in it and much scope for positive spin which can only support sentiment and drive the market forward and up. Bullish in the extreme from a short term perspective IMO.

Come on Japan-do your stuff!

Edited by Baz63

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The potential is for sure there to lose a lot of money, however as they say you have to speculate to accumulate!!.

The smart money will sniff the peak and leave the market leaving the average Joe holding the baby.

It is an absolute certainty in my mind that this can only end in a crash, the concept of stagnation is no longer an option. The money on loan is now astronomical in proportion and banks are lending to everyone and anyone.

I myself recently purchased a car for 8K, used my savings to make the purchase and then repaid them with a loan at 4.75% from Cahoot. The loan was agreed over the phone in less than a couple of minutes, its that easy now.

Having Liquid assets to tide you through a bad period is what its going to be about in the near future. When the credit restrictions kick in to hold it all back many people will be shocked at how insesitive the friendly banks are going to be.

Getting Cheap Money, for little effort for so long, then seeing it dissapear overnight and a return to real interest rates is going to knock a lot of people sideways.

I have to agree with your assessment.

Where i think we agree is this market will take its own course no matter what anybody wishes, and until this cheap credit has been taken away prices will stay high because of the temporary affordability and human nature due to global as well as domestic factors. But when this cheap money is removed and other factors change there is no way prices will just stay as they are, as the market is dynamic and will always need to move forward. Is this how you see it?

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I have to agree with your assessment.

Where i think we agree is this market will take its own course no matter what anybody wishes, and until this cheap credit has been taken away prices will stay high because of the temporary affordability and human nature due to global as well as domestic factors. But when this cheap money is removed and other factors change there is no way prices will just stay as they are, as the market is dynamic and will always need to move forward. Is this how you see it?

That's precisely how I see it. Well put IMO.

Which boils down to timescales.

C'mon Japan-do your stuff!

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I have to say I am suprised that you are all suprised.

For some years now each of you have been egging each other on, and slating anyone who tells you the real truth.

Property has been going up, it has been selling, and people are making money from it today.

This is no spring bounce, its an onward and upward trend.

However, its gonna go very soon now you all just called it far too early, 5years too early for some of you.

I'm one of the people that called it too early, but I haven't lost out in terms of property value as it stayed below interest minus inflation. There should have been a mild correction around 2001 which would have seen a much better situation today but then Labour pumped so much money into public service recruitment (the majority of all new jobs since that point) and low interest rates from the BOE meant it didn't happen.

Now I myself may be a deluded fool, but it's going to be a lot worse than I first thought. Best case perfect scenario is it stays as it is and people start to pay off their debts with a lowering in consumer spending, and a nudge up in interest rates to help wake us up.

Edited by maxwell

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That's precisely how I see it. Well put IMO.

Which boils down to timescales.

C'mon Japan-do your stuff!

em

Timescale...........We are looking at global timescale, will most countries be in sync?

OK here goes

2006

Stagflation theory rife but by end of year property ends fairly flatish.

"Bull" arguement "so its still not crashed just soft landing as predicted"

2007

Global, especially UK slowdown, unemployment rising, credit tightening, uk PSBR comes to a head, hike in taxes. Comodity prices rise together with rises in products for the 1st time in a decade. Inflation in uk once again.

House prices still "sticky" repossessions being seen, by end of year real falls that can no longer be ignored by VI take house prices into negative territory

2008

Start of recession. Political unrest here and abroad (dangerous times) Isolism takes over especially in europe and US. Cheap money supply dries up quickly. Unemployment now rising sharply, even in so called "safe jobs". Products cost more as £ devalues and people feel "poor". The silver lining is a modest increase in UK manufacturing (wow)

House prices fall but are seen as only a symptom of recession.

2009

Full crash mode in houses and other asset classes. Hard times

2010

Falls ease slightly

2011

Towards the end of the year prices hit their trough, but nobody thinks it a good investment as surviving seems to be a higher priority.

2012 - 2018

Small rises and falls general stagnation

2019 - 2022

House prices rise @ or just above rate of inflation.

2023

House prices back to previous peak in 2004

2023 - 2028

House prices show rapid increases, accelerating as the years pass. Dubbed as the best investment ever.

2029

Talk of a Housing bubble, but, seriously, it really will be different this time.

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That is an enormous amount of money being pumped into Property.

And the tiny upwards move that was associated with such a huge pump, looks profoundly bearish to me [DrBubb]

Plus an historically large proportion will be MEW. Where's that money going? The subdued retail sector suggests it's being used to pay down other loans and meet rising living costs.

We're so far from being yoy negative it beggars belief. [baz63]

Most of the country already is. For a variety of technical reasons indices such as Nationwide and Halifax overstate HPI by 5-10%.

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Baz63,

I think you read laurejon's post wrong

However, its gonna go very soon now you all just called it far too early, 5years too early for some of you.

I read it as it is written, some peeps called it early 2002...2003...and the like. He aint saying the slide will not kick in for another 5 years, in his opinion "its gonna go very soon"

If I've read him wrong I'm sure he will put me right. :rolleyes:

Bubb nice reply, and painful as it will be for some folks, it's what is needed, recessions are to economies what enema's are to child birth :ph34r:

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They're not all fools.

Spoken to a few workers from the city who are piling in with IO mortgages whilst investing heavily into stocks and shares. These guys will change to repayment when they get their bonuses...or make money on the markets and dump down bigger deposits.

These guys keep their investments diverse so even if property does screw up they're covered.

Sadly, this strategy is way beyond my means, or income.

Yep - my boss got his bonus and hedged his purchase of another 2 bedder with the purhcase of a nice new DB9. Alas, not a strategy I can afford either.

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Correct, I think 2007 is the year we will see it dive, in fact my guess is the last quarter.

I am basing my views on the fact that I am an old fool, seen many of these situations and I am married to the idea that a miracle economy cannot exist in anything other than the mind of a reckless chancellor determined to manipulate the markets in order to show he is hitting his predictions on both inflation and public borrowing.

My world is simple, we have a seven year cycle its been that way since time in memorial and it has not ever changed.

2000 would have seen a rise in interest rates, and a drop in house prices. I sold out in 2000 several properties on which I had made over 100% having purchased them in 1994/5

The only factor that stopped the crash, or recession in its tracks was September 11th and the alignment of the worlds money men and Governments determined to stave of a finanacial metldown for the US.

Remember Bush "Its your patriotic duty to release your savings, borrow money, and spend the US out of the doldrums" this philosophy was replicated across many continents and many nations in a determination to ensure the extremists did not win, the prize being the collapse of Western Banking Systems and Economic stability.

The interest rates have never recovered, nobody in their right mind is going to lend hard earnt savings for 2% returns less tax, and the Governments knew that. They spent the money thus driving up the econonomy, this remains the case to day with the rob peter to pay paul cascade of the housing market whereby capital gains from the top trickle down the system to be replaced with bigger and bigger mortgages for those on the lower rungs. The only reason they can continue is not economic success exhibited in the paypacket but on the affordability of money.

This will change, and its going to be a huge shock for those who are new to the real world of finance and economics.

Lets not forget that our trusted financial analysts in the treasury, and the private sector would have been wearing nappies and smelling of talcum powder during the last turndown. They have no concept of the 18% interest rate fiasco much of the population endured in an effort to pull the UK out of bankruptcy.

So.........going on a seven year cycle, and bearing in mind that unnatural methods were used in the form of giveaway interest rates to beat a turndown then 2007 has to be the year for the next one. There is no way that this government or any government can afford to keep borrowing to stave off recession and political meltdown. A change of leader might paste over the cracks, but the foundations are have subsided and only some serious underpinning in the form of high interest rates will return us all to economic sensibility.

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The value of (please insert from list) your home, stocks, shares, other investments, can go down as well as up.

Nope, these could be the biggest fools, they could lose more and quicker.

See them for what they are, very over leveraged gamblers betting in numerous asset classes on the hope shares will rise so they can get their dream bonuses.

The higher the stakes the more you can lose

These continual derogatory remarks about the more bullish investors arent helpful IMO.

My point is that many of these people are making SO MUCH money in various markets that even if property did crash there is a conderable number who wouldnt be affected in the doomsday scenario predicated by many here. I'm sure there are plenty of cowboys but you are seriously underestimating a ) how much armoury many investors have thanks to gains in the markets and b ) that a lot of these people have quite shrewd exit stragies if things do go pear shaped.

I'd like to believe a mega crash will happen next year but the reality I am hearing from contempories in London is of great vats of money being sucked up by some wily yound men and women.

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I'd like to believe a mega crash will happen next year but the reality I am hearing from contempories in London is of great vats of money being sucked up by some wily yound men and women.

Just to add to the above and to add to the point of the original post, I hav a close relative who is an estate agent

The day before the Daily Mail was published, they told me how the market here in Surrey has really picked up in the last few months. That is fact - not anecdotal

However they also added "After being pretty dead for the last 18 months"

I don't recall that being said at dinner parties 6,12,18 months ago

The point being they, like many VI's have been talking up the market for a long time when they KNOW its been on a downward trend

Many of us on HPC also knew that, but the wider general population did not, likes to VI stuff like the above

The point being, you can only talk up a market for so long, sooner or later the fundamentals catch up and in this case the fundamentals are quite simple

UK house prices are too f**king expensive

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  • 335 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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