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Evening Standard Calling The Coming Recession

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http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article....35&in_page_id=2

Oil price fuels double scare

Jane Padgham, Evening Standard
21 April 2006
A SUMMER of soaring oil prices is threatening to hit consumers and pile more pressure on the beleaguered manufacturing sector, experts warned today.
RISING DEMAND: Increases in production have failed to cool the oil market
The grim prediction
came as the price of Brent crude yesterday hit a record $74.22 a barrel amid fears of a US military strike on Iran, the world's fourth biggest oil producer, over its nuclear ambitions.
Dearer oil is also a headache for Gordon Brown. Britain has become a net importer of oil as North Sea reserves have run dry. So instead of the windfall the Treasury and the economy have enjoyed for 30 years, they now face a huge bill for bringing energy in from overseas.

Not the kind of environment in which further inflation in already overpriced house will survive. Unemployment trends, the reality of higher IR from Japan and the need to import oil as export money is lost is the new paradigm. Its worse this time than in 1989, much worse because in 1989 we had NS oil to bail us out. All we have now is the "Miracle Economy" and that is failing because debt cannot go on been piled onto debt without the economy breaking.

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Hi

Is "realistic" one of those names, like calling someone Big Jake, when they are only 5ft 2 inches?

King, do you not agree wit Realistbears post? If not, can you give reasons why you believe it to be incorrect?

Edited by OzzMosiz

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Because for a start nowhere do they say a recession is coming, just for a start!

If you read the full article, possible recession is mentioned.

It has some long words in it though.

Edited by tahoma

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If you read the full article, possible recession is mentioned.

It has some long words in it though.

Perhaps you could quote were you read that the UK will be in recession, or are you just confusing a recession in manufacturing (which is in recession as often as not) with a recession, and it only says as you point out possible, which is a far cry from "Evening Standard Calling The Coming Recession"

Sorry, if you find the words long though...

Anyway realist seems to be in making things up mode today, yet again.

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While it is true that the UK is now a net importer of oil, we still produce a huge amount, and the tax take on that oil rises as the oil price does.

So I don't think Gordon gives a stuff, except to worry what happens to other tax receipts if high oil prices tip us into a recession.

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Perhaps you could quote were you read that the UK will be in recession, or are you just confusing a recession in manufacturing (which is in recession as often as not) with a recession, and it only says as you point out possible, which is a far cry from "Evening Standard Calling The Coming Recession"

You protest too much, and you are not convincing anyone.

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You protest too much, and you are not convincing anyone.

Well, all the article really says is that higher oil prices might slow down the consumer and manufacturing recovery. It mentions the recessions of the 70s only in order to dismiss the likelihood that this will be the result. I tend to agree with KON on this one.

It also quotes the guy from Capital Economics saying that higher oil prices make it more likely that rates will stay on hold or eventually be cut, but I guess that bit wasn't to Realist's liking so he chose to ignore it.

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You protest too much, and you are not convincing anyone.

Ahh, so basically I'm right and you have no arguments left......Good I'm glad we agree that the article doesn't anywhere say or even imply "Evening Standard Calling The Coming Recession"

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Ahh, so basically I'm right and you have no arguments left......Good I'm glad we agree that the article doesn't anywhere say or even imply "Evening Standard Calling The Coming Recession"

If this is not the clearest warning of a coming recession then I do not know what is:

Economists said rocketing petrol prices, combined with rising gas and electricity bills,
cast a shadow over the fragile economic recovery.
Not only will they bite into consumers' income
, they will also force companies notably manufacturers, to spend more on fuel. The warning light will only change from amber to red if we start to see a clear upwards move in inflation expectations
.'

A "Fragile economy" is exaclty what we have. The reality of rising fuel bills is inflationary whether the CPI says it is or not. The article sees higher fuel ahead and consequently higher real inflation which will turn the amber warning light to red.

Denial will not change things. Accept that the press are turning evermore bearish as reality begins to poke at Gordon's miraculous bubble economy.

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Ahh, so basically I'm right and you have no arguments left......Good I'm glad we agree that the article doesn't anywhere say or even imply "Evening Standard Calling The Coming Recession"

Agreed, sorry. My fault for speed reading the article; a bit too used to ranting at VIs on here I'm afraid! :unsure:

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If this is not the clearest warning of a coming recession then I do not know what is:

Economists said rocketing petrol prices, combined with rising gas and electricity bills,
cast a shadow over the fragile economic recovery.
Not only will they bite into consumers' income
, they will also force companies notably manufacturers, to spend more on fuel. The warning light will only change from amber to red if we start to see a clear upwards move in inflation expectations
.'

A "Fragile economy" is exaclty what we have. The reality of rising fuel bills is inflationary whether the CPI says it is or not. The article sees higher fuel ahead and consequently higher real inflation which will turn the amber warning light to red.

Denial will not change things. Accept that the press are turning evermore bearish as reality begins to poke at Gordon's miraculous bubble economy.

You seem still not to understand English. We have a fragile economic recovery, as we have been growing below trend, although the last two quarters showed a pick up from the low of the end of last year.

Nothing here means were are going into a recession, all it means is growth may continue below trend.

You really are trying to read things that aren't there, if you want to grab at straws please do, but please please please try to "report" what the articles say, not what you want then to say.

No where does the article say anything of the sort "Evening Standard Calling The Coming Recession", however much you protest.

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You seem still not to understand English. We have a fragile economic recovery, as we have been growing below trend, although the last two quarters showed a pick up from the low of the end of last year.

Nothing here means were are going into a recession, all it means is growth may continue below trend.

You really are trying to read things that aren't there, if you want to grab at straws please do, but please please please try to "report" what the articles say, not what you want then to say.

No where does the article say anything of the sort "Evening Standard Calling The Coming Recession", however much you protest.

Recovery? From what? The recession has not begun yet. That is why the article is so forboding--it cites all the reason why there is not going to be a recovery. This is like the VIs saying that the housing market is recovering when they have never admitted it has been in trouble--just "soft landings" and "breathers."

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Agreed, sorry. My fault for speed reading the article; a bit too used to ranting at VIs on here I'm afraid! :unsure:

Tahoma,

Cheers for that, its very rare for anyone ever to admit they made a mistake on a board. As you say, sometimes these boards become rants just because someone wrote something, rather than what they wrote.

We all do it from time to time, but blimey some people anything to aviod saying it. Gives you alot of credence in my book, if thats worth anything.

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Recovery? From what? The recession has not begun yet. That is why the article is so forboding--it cites all the reason why there is not going to be a recovery. This is like the VIs saying that the housing market is recovering when they have never admitted it has been in trouble--just "soft landings" and "breathers."

A recovery can be from stagnation as well as from recession - last year we had economic growth but it was below expectation. If this year growth improves that will be a recovery, but not preceded by a recession.

It's fairly simple. The article is saying that oil prices may slow down the fragile economic growth, which is a different thing from saying they will plunge us into recession. The article may be wrong, but that's what it actually says.

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Recovery? From what? The recession has not begun yet. That is why the article is so forboding--it cites all the reason why there is not going to be a recovery. This is like the VIs saying that the housing market is recovering when they have never admitted it has been in trouble--just "soft landings" and "breathers."

Recovery from the below trend growth we have.

Recovery from the period of low HPI we had

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last year we had economic growth

No we didn't, because inflation is being greatly under-reported.

The scary thing is that the banks printed an extra 10% of GDP last year, yet our 'growth' was far less. We couldn't even manage 10% pre-inflation growth by throwing 10% more money into the economy than the ecomomy actually produces!

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No we didn't, because inflation is being greatly under-reported.

The scary thing is that the banks printed an extra 10% of GDP last year, yet our 'growth' was far less. We couldn't even manage 10% pre-inflation growth by throwing 10% more money into the economy than the ecomomy actually produces!

Fair enough, you're right that the figures are a bit dodgy. I was making a point about the semantics of "recovery" rather than about the facts.

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If this is not the clearest warning of a coming recession then I do not know what is:

Economists said rocketing petrol prices, combined with rising gas and electricity bills,
cast a shadow over the fragile economic recovery.
Not only will they bite into consumers' income
, they will also force companies notably manufacturers, to spend more on fuel. The warning light will only change from amber to red if we start to see a clear upwards move in inflation expectations
.'

A "Fragile economy" is exaclty what we have. The reality of rising fuel bills is inflationary whether the CPI says it is or not. The article sees higher fuel ahead and consequently higher real inflation which will turn the amber warning light to red.

Denial will not change things. Accept that the press are turning evermore bearish as reality begins to poke at Gordon's miraculous bubble economy.

I think people will not accept that things are getting worse until the shit hits the fan.

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Coolio. I like RB's posts, he finds some interesting stuff but sometimes he goes a bit far!

For what I've read, the artlicle will say something like this

"The King of Spain, says interest has risen in F1 in Spain is certain to increase with Alonso wining the world championship. Tickets for this years race, have sold at the fastest rate ever recorded"

RB would write

King says "interest rates rising at fastest rate ever"

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Recovery from the below trend growth we have.

Recovery from the period of low HPI we had

below trend or below the trends of past few years? A 20% HPI has never been a long term trend. The trend is when HPI goes too high it's followed by a correction. That trend was correctly being followed last year. A higher HPI now should not be reported as a recovery rather should be reported as 'defying the trend to invite a more painful correction'.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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