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Globalisation Of The South East


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What do you mean by Global commodity? Do you mean that everyone in the world wants to live here?

As you know there is no money in BTL (this has now been proven way beyond doubt) But when all these people move here they will no longer be "global" but English. So i cant see what your point is.

Thank you for a good and thoughtful question. I mean by 'global commodity' that large numbers of highly skilled company executives from Indian and China, but also others from all over the world, are being sent to live in London. They need somewhere to live and have kept the housing market in London and the South East buoyant when almost everyone expected at least a stagnation or decline in prices. Independent schools across London have been enrolling record numbers of Chinese, Russians and to a lesser extent Indians. In short we no longer have a stratified housing market with FTB's at the bottom and hoping to climb the ladder as their income increases. Young Europeans and others have taken FTB's place and company executives have bought family accommodation in suburbs like Ealing for instance. Plus, the 'new rich' are investing in property in London for the long term, they do not much care about short term returns, they know that in the long-term their money is safe.

With London increasing its influence as the financial capitol of the world, this situation is set to deepen.

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Guest Cletus VanDamme

A Polish chap has just bought a place a few doors down from me. Was chatting to him the other day, talking about the cost of housing in London. I asked him if he had had any concerns, buying when it was so expensive.

He said he had had no problem getting a self-cert mortgage, and in any case, if the market did crash, or he was unable to keep up the repayments, he'd just hand back the keys and go back to Poland - the bank wouldn't be able to track him down.

I guess globalisation works both ways - good luck to him!

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http://www.timesonline.co.uk/newspaper/0,,...2136270,00.html

Here is more evidence that the housing market in the South East is now a global commodity.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-2146527,00.html

And more evidence, a 46% increase in foreign buyer interest over the past two years. Admittedly, this is in the top strata of the market, but executives rarely arrive in London without support staff. To say nothing of the rich Indians and Chinese who want a typical British countryside house.

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At risk of repeating myself .... South East HPI is - 0.5% - that does not sound like a bouyant market to me.

At anecdotal level we have friends who are trying to sell... had the house on for 8-9 weeks now and had one viewing and no offers. DONT BE SUCKED IN BY THE HYPE.

I dare say there are people from all around the world who might like to live in the South East but there are also a lot living in the South East who would like to get out.

Have to say the hype is beging to piss me off tho .... what next ? Saudi Oil Billionaires in bidding war for Dartford studio flat ! Neasden has more property millionaires than Los Angleles ......

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At risk of repeating myself .... South East HPI is - 0.5% - that does not sound like a bouyant market to me.

How many people live in greater London, about 9m or so? What we're talking about is a handful of rich businessmen in select areas, does this set the entire market? I had a nosey around the agents in Sussex a few weeks back and if anything property is 'cheap' by comparison to the Midlands and parts of the North, especially when you factor in wages, at least in parts of the South East you can argue that wages help support silly prices, but not so in the rest of the country.

People are seeing what they want to see, I'm afraid places like Tunbridge Wells still have more in common with Bristol than Tokyo!

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Given the general arguments made on here, the property market in London and the South East should have crashed sometime in 2003. Here we are, 3 years on, and its still racing on.

What's your explanation?

You must have arrived quite recently and not seen my posts.

I believe in Andrew Farlow's explanation of what drives the property market. "Irrational exuberence". As I've said quite a few times over the last few months, while the current overpriced property market must go through a correction at some time as it's not sustainable, predicting when and how this would happen is near impossible. There have been a number of times in the last month when I've posted that sentiment is still high enough that the property market will not fall just yet. I've also said that Ireland seems worse than here in terms of being way past sanity, and that things could get that bad here. So I think your first argument, at least if addressed to me, is a straw man.

I do believe that the property market was overpriced in 2003, but speculative bubbles typically go way beyond what can be explained by fundamentals, and can keep on going higher and higher for years.

Can you tell me your thoughts on tulips?

Billy Shears

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http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-2146527,00.html

And more evidence, a 46% increase in foreign buyer interest over the past two years. Admittedly, this is in the top strata of the market, but executives rarely arrive in London without support staff. To say nothing of the rich Indians and Chinese who want a typical British countryside house.

If you think that this is significant enough to drive the market you clearly have a head full of mad dog's shite.

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If you think that this is significant enough to drive the market you clearly have a head full of mad dog's shite.

Pity you did not have the courage to deal with my arguments, Itherefore take it as a compliment that I am on to something. To try to answer your question, volumes are not required, the market is drven by sentiment. Do also consider taking your next holiday to China and see how a market works when it has potential consumers of over 1 billion people -millions of entreprenerial chinese are getting incredibly rich and need to invest their capital somewhere. London is a favourite destination for it, particularly its property market.

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Pity you did not have the courage to deal with my arguments, Itherefore take it as a compliment that I am on to something. To try to answer your question, volumes are not required, the market is drven by sentiment.

So you're basically saying it doesn't matter whether your contention is actually true or not; provided we just believe the market is being flooded with overseas buyers, therefore helping 'sentiment'. Very good ;)

London is a favourite destination for it, particularly its property market.

They certainly won't be investing in Shanghai, that's for sure.

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The folllowing is addressed to "Spring In The Air".

You must have arrived quite recently and not seen my posts.

I believe in Andrew Farlow's explanation of what drives the property market. "Irrational exuberence". As I've said quite a few times over the last few months, while the current overpriced property market must go through a correction at some time as it's not sustainable, predicting when and how this would happen is near impossible. There have been a number of times in the last month when I've posted that sentiment is still high enough that the property market will not fall just yet. I've also said that Ireland seems worse than here in terms of being way past sanity, and that things could get that bad here. So I think your first argument, at least if addressed to me, is a straw man.

I do believe that the property market was overpriced in 2003, but speculative bubbles typically go way beyond what can be explained by fundamentals, and can keep on going higher and higher for years.

Can you tell me your thoughts on tulips?

I would still like to see your answer.

Billy Shears

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  • 439 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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