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Yesterday's was a desperate engineered sell-off to allow the cornered shorts to cover. It happened in the comex market, which is just paper (future contracts).

How does that work then? Surely the people that could engineer the drop by selling, are the people that stand to make money out of the 'cornered shorts' ?

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Can't you see yet what is going on? Protect yourself.

couldnt agree more with you. some people are blind to what is going on. the following article might give the blind a better idea

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/C0FM...dist=RNPullDown

been trying to explain to friends and family for the last 3 years why they should invest in gold to protect themselves and how the dollar is going to crumble. most have ignored the warning and gone out to buy on interest only mortgages and mock me for missing out. i've given up now and have come to the conclusion that 90% of people are stupid.

good luck cgnao,

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couldnt agree more with you. some people are blind to what is going on........ i've given up now and have come to the conclusion that 90% of people are stupid.

I am involved in another subject area in which the masses cannot be made to understand how their behaviour puts their long term prospects at risk. You can't convince the crowd to act against appearances and/or convention. Yes, I think you are right, but it's higher than 90%, more like 98% in my view.

Look on the bright side... makes the potential pay-off of being smart all the greater!

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I am pleased to announce that at 15:32:37 GMT on 20 April 2006, I surrendered the last of my paper capital for gold, at a spot price of £344.5

My policy from now on is that any amount in my possession exceeding £1,000 or equivalent in any paper currency shall be converted into gold bullion as soon as practically possible and in any case within at most one business day, regardless of market conditions.

This will apply until either the market price of one ounce of gold can buy the DOW Jones, or nominal long term interest rates exceed the money supply growth by at least 3%.

I am now fully protected.

good luck!!!!

personally I think it a mistake to invest in only one asset class...that's why I've opted for the gold+commodities+asian equities route.

IMHO western consumerism is pretty much dead,I'm of the view the japs and their gadget-maina,and EU realising over-regulation screws business will save the day....that means MUCH weaker dollar....but a much improved trade scenario for the others.

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I am involved in another subject area in which the masses cannot be made to understand how their behaviour puts their long term prospects at risk. You can't convince the crowd to act against appearances and/or convention. Yes, I think you are right, but it's higher than 90%, more like 98% in my view.

Look on the bright side... makes the potential pay-off of being smart all the greater!

Is it gambling?

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i've given up now and have come to the conclusion that 90% of people are stupid.

My statistics: 98% are more stupid than average, and 90% of that 98% are FAR more stupid than average.

And this forum is a meaningful sample of the general population.

Good luck to everyone...

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good luck!!!!

personally I think it a mistake to invest in only one asset class...that's why I've opted for the gold+commodities+asian equities route.

IMHO western consumerism is pretty much dead,I'm of the view the japs and their gadget-maina,and EU realising over-regulation screws business will save the day ....that means MUCH weaker dollar....but a much improved trade scenario for the others.

we can hope,

but that would mean a lot of people losing there regulation enforcement jobs including some of the EU politicians so i think it will take something drastic for them to do something about the red tape.

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Guest boredwaiting

My statistics: 98% are more stupid than average, and 90% of that 98% are FAR more stupid than average.

And this forum is a meaningful sample of the general population.

Good luck to everyone...

That's a fairly arrogant view point. Thinking that your better in any way than the majority may well be your downfall. Us little people get it right some times.

Actually the more posts you write, the more of an extremist you appear to me, you're judgement may well be clouded with your need to be right, or your belief that somehow you're smarter.....

In my experience it's the people who appear stupid are by far the ones who are not.....

For example:

I don't know if it's been studied, but I don't think that there is a step function in the levels of stupidity - it's probably a guassian distribution (but i don't know). So this

98% are more stupid than average, and 90% of that 98% are FAR more stupid than average

is quite a sweeping statement and probably says a lot about your quantative analysis......

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good luck!!!!

personally I think it a mistake to invest in only one asset class...that's why I've opted for the gold+commodities+asian equities route.

IMHO western consumerism is pretty much dead,I'm of the view the japs and their gadget-maina,and EU realising over-regulation screws business will save the day....that means MUCH weaker dollar....but a much improved trade scenario for the others.

You could well be right and there are arguments being made for your selection of asset classes.

But according to Paul van Eeden, a well respected and level-headed analyst, commodities may have peaked. His main argument is that the recent run up was largely speculative. The argument from BRIC demand is false - it is mainly substitute demand - and a fall off in US consumer demand will lead to less demand for commodities in BRIC countries.

He certainly gave me pause for thought.

Edit to add link: http://www.kitco.com/weekly/paulvaneeden/jan212005.html

Edited by New Bear
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You could well be right and there are arguments being made for your selection of asset classes.

But according to Paul van Eeden, a well respected and level-headed analyst, commodities may have peaked. His main argument is that the recent run up was largely speculative. The argument from BRIC demand is false - it is mainly substitute demand - and a fall off in US consumer demand will lead to less demand for commodities in BRIC countries.

He certainly gave me pause for thought.

Edit to add link: http://www.kitco.com/weekly/paulvaneeden/jan212005.html

Given this thread title refers to 'Out of paper' and into Gold, you did read the following in van Eeden's column, right?:

Before we go any further, let me state for the record that gold is not a commodity. It is money. So when I am referring to commodity prices I am explicitly not including gold.

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Interesting that yet again the FTSE is DOWN and pressure is OFF oil at the moment, yet the price of gold is rising again.

Whereas a couple of weeks ago it seemed to be moving with oil and stocks in a rather traditional way, now it seems to have broken free.

Maybe this is the behaviour Cgnao and others have been predicting for years...

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Also from the same author:

http://www.paulvaneeden.com/displayArticle.php?articleId=155

Gold will go up while commodities go down

May 21, 2006

....

Renewed interest in metals from investors who have no comprehension of the difference between metal commodities and gold -- which is money, and not a commodity -- has contributed to the rise in the gold price during the past six months. The bad news is that the gold price is being dragged down by other commodity prices. The good news is that it is presenting a buying opportunity in the gold sector that I fully intend to avail myself to in the coming weeks.

At some point the correlation between base metals prices and the gold price should break down, after which gold should rise while base metals decline.

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QUOTE(dazw01842 @ May 31 2006, 12:07 PM) *

Are there any graphs that can show us the correlation (or lack of, whichever is the case) between gold and other metals over the past 100 years?

A better correlation might be between gold and debt.

Well, the aforementioned article says that the price of gold will move seperately from the price of other metals. A graph showing the price of gold, silver, copper etc over the past 100 years might be of benefit.

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You could well be right and there are arguments being made for your selection of asset classes.

But according to Paul van Eeden, a well respected and level-headed analyst, commodities may have peaked. His main argument is that the recent run up was largely speculative. The argument from BRIC demand is false - it is mainly substitute demand - and a fall off in US consumer demand will lead to less demand for commodities in BRIC countries.

He certainly gave me pause for thought.

Edit to add link: http://www.kitco.com/weekly/paulvaneeden/jan212005.html

yes I don't deny that the rampant price increse was due to spculation,but lets look at the fundamentals.

......large amounts of asia,eastern europe are getting a chance to propel their pauper classes into a more "western" style of living,complete with transport,electricity,and industry.....all that requires infrastructure like roads and power stations to do it.THAT'S what emerging markets is about,not some easy-picking cheapm BTL in bulgaria....they will beigin to service their own economies off the back of exports.......in the case of india+china they could become pretty much self-sufficient with the right innovation.

short of a massive population cull(of which bird flu could mutate),then commodities will flourish.....the technicals look good for it...we are just out of a 15-year bear market.......like I said,viral outbreak could still screw this up......war on a regional scale won't be that big a deal....I'm keeping a close eye on both.

Given this thread title refers to 'Out of paper' and into Gold, you did read the following in van Eeden's column, right?:

Before we go any further, let me state for the record that gold is not a commodity. It is money. So when I am referring to commodity prices I am explicitly not including gold.

sure but WHAT is money!!!!

...an international means of exchange for goods in demand.......so ANYTHING that supplies basic needs like food and shelter can be classed as money too!!!!...it's just barter!

...the basics in life are food,fuel and shelter.

...shelter for many is borrowed long term.

food and fuel have to be paid for straight away.

I'm sticking to long term commodity rises.........just make sure you can capitalise on it by learning how to do more with less!!

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Guest boredwaiting

Is now a good time to be out of paper? I did buy some gold a while ago, but it was near the top (i had waited for a pull back but didn't see it coming :( so i invested in some gold) wish i had waited now. But it's been flat at 650, now at 630...

There was no summer slump last year - I read a few articles that the supply for gold has dropped, but so is demand now. So i think i will cut my losses and come back in august and see what it is like...

Any others share or oppose this?

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Is now a good time to be out of paper? I did buy some gold a while ago, but it was near the top (i had waited for a pull back but didn't see it coming :( so i invested in some gold) wish i had waited now. But it's been flat at 650, now at 630...

There was no summer slump last year - I read a few articles that the supply for gold has dropped, but so is demand now. So i think i will cut my losses and come back in august and see what it is like...

Any others share or oppose this?

Hmmm... I bought some more which is now showing a loss, but am still in profit as the main bulk was bought ages ago around $500 on average. At the time I decided to leave it a year of which I expected to see a rise - i'll continue to do this although demand is not high at present. I also decided not to sell when others were saying too - because i'm in it for the long run! :lol:

I just hope it doesn't drop below $600...bit of a psychological blow if it does.

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