Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
dog

The Myth Of Land Shortage

Recommended Posts

Population density

Some claim that high house prices are linked to land shortage but the evidence suggests that someone is fibbing.

We have the same population density as Germany (where prices are much cheaper). We also have a lower population density than the Lebanon, South Korea, Belgium and India. In fact we are 48th on the list. So why are our houses the most expensive? Perhaps one of the overleveraged mortgage slaves can answer this.

The population density of Macau is 85 times greater than the UK. Now that is dense, but somehow I don't think their house prices are 85 times greater than ours.

Edited by dog

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Agreed, this land shortage idea is total bulls***.

Think about it, why did we suddenly run out of land in 2001? (answer: we didn't)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
We have the same population density as Germany (where prices are much cheaper).

However, in Germany you don't have all the decent-paying jobs crammed into a tiny area around Berlin with a wasteland of dole and government makework schemes outside it.

I agree that there's no lack of land, but there are major differences between Britain and Germany: our entire economy is based around London.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

However, in Germany you don't have all the decent-paying jobs crammed into a tiny area around Berlin with a wasteland of dole and government makework schemes outside it.

I agree that there's no lack of land, but there are major differences between Britain and Germany: our entire economy is based around London.

Which would explain high house prices in London, but what about the rest of the country?

Billy Shears

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Which would explain high house prices in London, but what about the rest of the country?

Easy credit and idiot London BTLs buying them because they're 'so cheap'.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh for God's sake - surely you don't need to be told it is a shortage of land you can build on that helps high house prices. The planning system is designed to keep working souls in harness all their lives. If you are in debt, you have to work. No-one likes a free man.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I spoke to the owner of a small/medium sized building firm (they build around 50 to 80 units p.a.) and he was adamant that there is a real shortage of available building land of the size they look for. The big builders (Persimmon etc) apparently have plenty for themselves but ration their output so as not to upset the market!

Edit - There's no shortage of land of course but land with potential planning permission is in short supply and what is available is being rationed by the owners (building co.s or the big estates).

Edited by 737

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Population density

Some claim that high house prices are linked to land shortage but the evidence suggests that someone is fibbing.

We have the same population density as Germany (where prices are much cheaper). We also have a lower population density than the Lebanon, South Korea, Belgium and India. In fact we are 48th on the list. So why are our houses the most expensive? Perhaps one of the overleveraged mortgage slaves can answer this.

The population density of Macau is 85 times greater than the UK. Now that is dense, but somehow I don't think their house prices are 85 times greater than ours.

Taking England on it's own shows a poplulation density of 383 per sq km putting it in at no.24

Take out all the tiny islands and city states and where are we?

#8 Malta 1,192.51 people per sqkm

#9 Bahrain 1,014.66 people per sqkm

#11 Bangladesh 949.28 people per sqkm

#13 Taiwan 685.47 people per sqkm

#17 Korea, South 477.49 people per sqkm

#18 Netherlands 466.45 people per sqkm

#19 Puerto Rico 433.94 people per sqkm

#24 England 383 people per sqkm

8th most crowded major nation on the Earth.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Guy_Montag

Taking England on it's own shows a poplulation density of 383 per sq km putting it in at no.24

Take out all the tiny islands and city states and where are we?

#8 Malta 1,192.51 people per sqkm

#9 Bahrain 1,014.66 people per sqkm

#11 Bangladesh 949.28 people per sqkm

#13 Taiwan 685.47 people per sqkm

#17 Korea, South 477.49 people per sqkm

#18 Netherlands 466.45 people per sqkm

#19 Puerto Rico 433.94 people per sqkm

#24 England 383 people per sqkm

8th most crowded major nation on the Earth.

Fair enough, so how does Scotland have a house price bubble, with a population density of 65 people per sqkm.

The same goes for NI at 125 ppsqkm & wales at 142.

Eire has a mere 56 ppsqkm.

Edited by Guy_Montag

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fair enough, so how does Scotland have a house price bubble, with a population density of 65 people per sqkm.

The same goes for NI at 125 ppsqkm & wales at 142.

Eire has a mere 56 ppsqkm.

What about Australia - they were/are? in a bubble!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fair enough, so how does Scotland have a house price bubble, with a population density of 65 people per sqkm.

The same goes for NI at 125 ppsqkm & wales at 142.

Eire has a mere 56 ppsqkm.

Very good point Guy.

Seems to be linked to proximity to the metropolitan centre... I wouldn't be suprised if there was a correlation between regional population density and regional price differences.

0.gif

What about Australia - they were/are? in a bubble!

Are the values of property comparable with the UK?

It seem intuitive that greater popluation density would mean greater competition for the resource of land.

I suspect that this is magnified by the relaxation of lending policy which may explain differences between say the UK and Germany.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Raw population density figures are not very good for working out land shortages, because they do not differentiate between different kinds of land.

You cannot just build houses or communities on any old land. It has to have a reasonable climate, be reasonably flat and you need the right access to water sources, food sources and trade routes.

England is pretty flat, has incredibly fertile soils and a very mild climate. It also has handy access to sea trading routes with continental Europe and elsewhere.

The Netherlands is the same, only even flatter and with land trade as well as sea trade routes.

So, hardly surprising that these places are densely populated.

Looking at just the *area* of Australia, say, you would think there might never be a land shortage even if their population grew to hundreds millions of people. But actually, the fertile parts of Australia with a decent climate are very limited. There are water problems all over the place. In trade terms Australia is in the middle of nowhere.

So, hardly surprising that the population of Australia is quite small.

You have to look at more than area to figure out the natural population of a geographical zone.

frugalista

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Macau property

Here we are, the most densely populated place on earth (85 times more people than the UK) and the price of a 2 bedroom flat is less than you would pay in Swindon (or have I missed something?)

1 British Pound = 13 Hong Kong Dollars

The VIs have been pushing the land shortage story but it is all hot air. ?

Edited by dog

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 336 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.