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Imf Warns Of Fall In House Prices

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Unfortunately, the IMF has been saying this for years and so their credibility has taken a knock (rightly or wrongly). If they had said this out of the blue and the IMF was more respected in the UK, it might just provide the straw to break the camels back but.. just another bearish article that will be missed and/or ignored by the sheeple.

That this is true is borne out by the fact that there have been no responses to your post - everyone else bickering amongst themselves rather than discussing press articles..

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Anyone who predicts a HPC will be 100% correct all of the time. Given enough time the market always sees see a boom and a bust. The skill is predicting when and by how much.

My prediction: The correction began late in 2004 when double digit inflation ended and the rate of appreciation slowed dramatically with single digit inflation following ever since. Late 2005 was the first time for negative YoY (Hometrack). December 2006 will see negative YoY of between 5-7%. December 2007 negative 10-15%, December 2008 negative 15-20%. Bottom will be around 2009-2012.

These predictions are not factoring in a global crisis such as a major war or significant bombing of a major western city (similar to 9/11), bird flu crossing over to become a 1918 style pandemic, Japan failing to keep central bank rates under 3%. If any of these occur all predictions are off as any one of them could trigger a major recession/depression and hpi will be an irrelevant issue.

Edited by Realistbear

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Anyone who predicts a HPC will be 100% correct all of the time. Given enough time the market always sees see a boom and a bust. The skill is predicting when and by how much.

My prediction: The correction began late in 2004 when double digit inflation ended and the rate of appreciation slowed dramatically with single digit inflation following ever since. Late 2005 was the first time for negative YoY (Hometrack). December 2006 will see negative YoY of between 5-7%. December 2007 negative 10-15%, December 2008 negative 15-20%. Bottom will be around 2009-2012.

These predictions are not factoring in a global crisis such as a major war or significant bombing of a major western city (similar to 9/11), bird flu crossing over to become a 1918 style pandemic, Japan failing to keep central bank rates under 3%. If any of these occur all predictions are off as any one of them could trigger a major recession/depression and hpi will be an irrelevant issue.

Jolly good, that's put a spring in my step! B) As long as the nasty bits don't affect me of course.

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The IMF? Weren't they the ones who memorably told us in 1991:

The things, you say

Your purple prose just gives you away

The things, you say

You're unbelievable

That's the World Bank you're thinking of :)

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Faraday’s Law of Induction states that the e.m.f. (electromotive force) generated in a conductor is proportional to the rate of change of magnetic flux linking the circuit.

Lenz’s Law: the direction of the induced e.m.f. and hence the induced current in a closed circuit is always such as to oppose the change in magnetic flux producing it.

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Ah whatever happened to EMF... and what on earth did it stand for?

Best remembered for the international smash "Unbelievable", the British dance-rock quintet EMF formed in Cinderford, England, in October 1989. All five members - vocalist James Atkin, guitarist Ian Dench, keyboardist Derry Brownson, bassist Zachary Foley, and drummer Mark Decloedt - were veterans of the local music scene before founding EMF, whose name supposedly stood for "Epsom Mad Funkers" (although it was widely speculated that the initials instead represented "Ecstasy Mind F*ckers")

Taken from:

http://www.mtv.com/music/artist/emf_1/bio....emf_1/bio.jhtml

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Unfortunately, the IMF has been saying this for years and so their credibility has taken a knock (rightly or wrongly). If they had said this out of the blue and the IMF was more respected in the UK, it might just provide the straw to break the camels back but.. just another bearish article that will be missed and/or ignored by the sheeple.

That this is true is borne out by the fact that there have been no responses to your post - everyone else bickering amongst themselves rather than discussing press articles..

I don't entirely agree with their credibility taking a knock. Firstly they are one of the few independent commentators on the housing market and thus have loads of credibility on that basis alone. Secondly they have been warning of a bubble since 2004 and not 'for years' as you suggest. Timings are very difficult to get right but the pricnciples are sound.

What they are saying is that UK housing stock is about 30% overpriced and that the risk of a correction is the biggest threat to the economy. Very guarded statements but with the implication that a crash is a significant risk.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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