Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
munimula

For All Those Obsessing With Uk Interest Rates

Recommended Posts

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4920720.stm

As the £ seems to have shrugged off losing any value against the $ whilst the US interest rates have been rising is it not possible that if the US stop putting their rates up at around 5% that the following US moves could be down to shore up a deteriorating US economy and therefore there will never be any pressure for UK IRs to rise from their current level. And remember the BoE is very good at forecasting future CPI - and guess what - it's always below 2%

But don't worry...we have a fast declining economy here, 2/3's of the UK economy is retail!!! Unbelievable but true, the UK is now just one big shopping centre where china et al can sell us their goods. We haven't needed a crash for retail to slowdown, just stagnation. Unemployment is up 13 out of 14 months and this is a cycle that once started is hard to stop. Gordon Brown can't save unemployment now - he doesn't have the money to keep all the public sector jobs he created going (NHS cuts).

Unemployment will be the trigger.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest

I thought that if they stop raising US rates, the USD$ drops like a stone. Hence the gold price.

Oh, and I thought we bought about 20% of our tat from the US, but 50% of our tat from EuroZone.

Edited by megaflop

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

But a single .25 cut in August was enough to stop the housing market from falling ?

Why is the UK real estate market defying all predictions and raising again ?

The US and European markets are following, but if small rate cuts can prevent HPC bears will have to be very patient... And Mrs. Bears will not wait forever :unsure:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just another spanner in the RealistBear's argument about IRs. Don't say you were not warned about trusting in the false prophet of doom.

IRs in the UK are not going higher ......

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just another spanner in the RealistBear's argument about IRs. Don't say you were not warned about trusting in the false prophet of doom.

IRs in the UK are not going higher ......

They may not have to raie the rates as the HPC is moving ahead based on other factors: deteriorating employment, retail slump, fuel spikes. Either way the Bulls have lost to the economic cycle.

But, does Gordon have any say in the matter? The BoJ are tightening because the Japanese economy has inflation. They are already talking about a 50% jump in the 10 Year and that is without an official move by the central bank.

The pound is riding high just at a time when exports are dropping (E.G. Peugeot will no longer be exporting from the UK next year) which seems to suggest devaluation would be the better route to take.

Its the rock and a hard place but my take on it is that the BoJ call the shots, not Gordon and his BoE cronies.

Edited by Realistbear

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They may not have to raie the rates as the HPC is moving ahead based on other factors: deteriorating employment, retail slump, fuel spikes. Either way the Bulls have lost to the economic cycle.

But, does Gordon have any say in the matter? The BoJ are tightening because the Japanese economy has inflation. They are already talking about a 50% jump in the 10 Year and that is without an official move by the central bank.

The pound is riding high just at a time when exports are dropping (E.G. Peugeot will no longer be exporting from the UK next year) which seems to suggest devaluation would be the better route to take.

Its the rock and a hard place but my take on it is that the BoJ call the shots, not Gordon and his BoE cronies.

GB has always got the get out of joining the Euro?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Why is the UK real estate market defying all predictions and raising again ?

Depends who you want to believe.

Personally I believe that proper analysis of the figures would show you that in the majority of counties in the UK house prices are down on 12 months ago, negative HPI.

London may have had some revival and prices going up in Scotland, NI and the North are still massively distorting the UK HPI figures.

You just stick to the headlines and learn nothing!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GB has always got the get out of joining the Euro?

Britain cant just 'join the Euro'.

For a start, no-one [except Brown the clown] would want us to join.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

IMO, the BoE raises the rates or drops the pound because of our creditors policy of hiking:

http://today.reuters.com/investing/finance...N-MIZOGUCHI.XML

Japan rates up on inflation worry-ex-MOF Mizoguchi

Tue Apr 18, 2006 6:05 AM ET

By Tamawa Kadoya
TOKYO, April 18 (Reuters) - Recent rises in Japan's long-term interest rates stem more from inflationary concerns than rate risks, and finance leaders will likely voice such concerns this week, a Japanese former top financial diplomat said on Tuesday.
Robust economic growth, tightening supply and surging oil prices are stoking inflationary concerns and central banks need to take appropriate monetary policy steps to contain them, Zembei Mizoguchi, a former vice finance minister for international affairs, told a small group of reporters.
"Inflationary pressures may be growing stronger," he said. "In order to avoid inflationary concerns from taking hold, each country is tightening monetary policy while watching their respective conditions."

Although the BoE like to think they can sit on the fence they did mention inflation in their latest rate decision.

TTRTRates whether we like it or not I am afraid. Or, devalue. Can't have it both ways. Devaluation and inflation do not mix well though...... It seems that we are between a rock and a hard place? :blink:

.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

IMO, the BoE raises the rates or drops the pound because of our creditors policy of hiking:

I've come to the conclusion that the BoE is not going to raise the rates. Not while GB has his eyes on No. 10

They know very well what the consequences would be.

The CPI figures are a complete sham as everybody is finally waking upto.

Service inflation is huge, all the things that we have to pay for. Conveniently offset by goods inflation, the things we don't need to pay for and crafty slight of hand techniques like hedonics.

Every month we are told TVs have come down in price of for the same price they are better and therefore actually cheaper. It's rubbish, yes people could be spending less on TVs - they could go out and buy a CRT 28" for £250 now but do they? - no, they go and buy a £1200 40" LCD HD ready TV. The point is that the price of things is going down but people don't spend less on them. They probably spend the same amount.

It's all a massive sham, GB is simply an economic magician and he's got most of the Uk believing his tricks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.