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Mike Mustard

Staggering Short Sightedness Of The British

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History shows that economies move in cycles. There are ups and downs, good times and bad times. However almost no one in Britain is capable of understanding this.

House prices have increased 250% in the last 10 years (has any commodity, currency or asset seen such a huge rise in modern times over such a sustained period?) making it unlikely that home prices will continue to rise substantially. Oil prices will continue to rise. Either interest rates will have to go up or price inflation will cause a recession. Everything is screaming out that we are at the peak of the housing market and that it would pay to leave well alone. Many people will be severely damaged by the coming downturn.

What is the reason people have not seen it coming and have behaved irrationally? I can only put it down to the incredible levels of propaganda in the media about HPI being good and never ending. In my opinion there should be laws governing the way the housing market is portrayed. If it had been shares half of Fleet Street would be in the dock for insider trading. The amount of unsubstantiated blow that has been hurled at the British people through TV and the daily rags is itself staggering. It should not be permitted. We are a disgusting people who deceive and bully each other into a misery for millions that is just round the corner.

Other countries do not have such extreme HPI and HPC cycles as far as I can gather. Is it something about the Brits that makes them obsessed with housing and blind to the risks? Is it just because we fancy Kirsty?

Edited by Mike Mustard

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I have seen over the last few months that the penny has dropped...

We have made arguments, the bulls have countered and I think that we have won each one..

Why...??

Well the penny dropped for me only after last christmas..

I had always said many times that this is what always happens..

What is amazing that is this is all you need to know..

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Shudder

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I have seen over the last few months that the penny has dropped...

We have made arguments, the bulls have countered and I think that we have won each one..

Why...??

Well the penny dropped for me only after last christmas..

I had always said many times that this is what always happens..

What is amazing that is this is all you need to know..

What - apart from 'the economic cycle' are your arguments? If interest rates rise, because of the favourable treatment to investors, houseprices will still be just as expensive!!

This is a STRUCTURAL change. Renting forever to the property elite was the norm from 1860 to 1915. Credit had polarised, ordianary people found credit too expensive, but propertied investors could easily obtain it.

Edited by brainclamp

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What - apart from 'the economic cycle' are your arguments? If interest rates rise, because of the favourable treatment to investors, houseprices will still be just as expensive!!

This is a STRUCTURAL change. Renting forever to the property elite was the norm from 1860 to 1915. Credit had polarised, ordianary people found credit too expensive, but propertied investors could easily obtain it.

I have made all arguments many times. :)

Massive price drops round me..

Brainclamp, I have written a full cover of all aspects of my arguments.. sooooo many times..

no market has ever failed.

Every market has had bulls or it would not have been a market.

so there have always been boom markets, there have always been bulls.

the Bulls have always been wrong and the boom markets have always failed.

countless times so many bulls, some cleverer then you, others less so.. they have all had one thing in common..

They have always been wrong in the end..

The trick is that in the end you don't want to have investments in the market..

Simple as that....

It has never been different.. not in the end..

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Brainclamp, you keep saying on this board that credit / tax is biased towards investors, but:

  • BTLers can only borrow 85% whereas OOs can borrow 100% and more.
  • Lenders have been more willing to reposess defaulting BTLers than defaulting OOs.
  • All other things being equal BTLers always pay a slightly higher interest rate than OOs.
  • OOs do not have to treat the benefit of living in their asset as income for tax purposes but BTLers do.
  • OOs do not have to pay CGT on their asset, but BTLers do.
  • BTLers have to meet various safety regulations, OOs do not.
  • BTLers have to cover voids, OOs do not.

So where is this bias towards investors that you keep banging on about? I have brought this up with you multiple times in the past but you just keep ignoring it.

frugalista

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Brainclamp, you keep saying on this board that credit / tax is biased towards investors, but:

  • BTLers can only borrow 85% whereas OOs can borrow 100% and more.

  • Lenders have been more willing to reposess defaulting BTLers than defaulting OOs.

  • All other things being equal BTLers always pay a slightly higher interest rate than OOs.

  • OOs do not have to treat the benefit of living in their asset as income for tax purposes but BTLers do.

  • OOs do not have to pay CGT on their asset, but BTLers do.

  • BTLers have to meet various safety regulations, OOs do not.

  • BTLers have to cover voids, OOs do not.

So where is this bias towards investors that you keep banging on about? I have brought this up with you multiple times in the past but you just keep ignoring it.

frugalista

First time buyers cut down as the new Landlord class marches on

http://firstrung.co.uk/articles.asp?pageid...1631&cat=47-0-0

Buy-to-let mortgage growth predicted

http://www.myfinances.co.uk/news/mortgages...#036;351596.htm

Buy to let market stays strong

http://www.moneynews.co.uk/538/buy-to-let-...t-stays-strong/

Ordinary buyers have to save over 5 years to cobble a deposit together. BTLers have large effortless equity which they can use. They can remortage this equity, and put it towards a new property.

Edited by brainclamp

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Guest Winners and Losers

First time buyers cut down as the new Landlord class marches on

http://firstrung.co.uk/articles.asp?pageid...1631&cat=47-0-0

Buy-to-let mortgage growth predicted

http://www.myfinances.co.uk/news/mortgages...#036;351596.htm

Buy to let market stays strong

http://www.moneynews.co.uk/538/buy-to-let-...t-stays-strong/

It was the investors who drove out the first time buyers in Australia. Guess what happened? Falling prices, bad yields, investors losing interest, FTB's coming back to the market (but driving a much harder bargain).

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I have seen over the last few months that the penny has dropped...

We have made arguments, the bulls have countered and I think that we have won each one..

Actually, I don't think this is accurate. I've several times characterised the arguments on here as:

Bears: The fundamentals do not support current house price levels, and at some time

Bulls: Well, last week house prices went up, you're wrong.

I don't think Bears and Bulls are arguing about the same thing, and certainly each have quite different ways of measuring who is right, will Bulls taking a day by day, almost, view on prices, with Bears typically predicting something in the short-ish to medium-ish to long terms.

So the Bears have, I believe, solidly demonstrated that the market is held up only by "irrational exuberance", but the Bulls believe that they have won the argument every time some dodgy index vaguely related to the price of houses shows an increase.

Billy Shears

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Thats wrong. I am a bull and argue that fundementally, because of mass immigration, not controlle dimmigration, and the momentum of favourable investor legislation (removal of MIRAS, SIPPS etc..), super-low interest rates, HPI is justified on supply and demand terms, rising rental yeilds and the structural polarisation of credit.

All I hear from bears is that 'its because of the economic cycle'. I have news for you.

When credit gets more expensive, unemployment rises, houses in real terms will not get cheaper for a first time buyer!

This is a strutural change. Because of mass immigration of millions and millions of people, a tight rental market and great demand, society will shift futher to a ownership class and a hapless renting/tenant class - with higher taxes paying the housing benefit to the landlords for any unemployed/low skilled.

Edited by brainclamp

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First time buyers cut down as the new Landlord class marches on

http://firstrung.co.uk/articles.asp?pageid...1631&cat=47-0-0

This bizzarely titled article (how could a parasite ever have class?) is neutral at best:

"Those that either added to their existing portfolios in the last two-three years, or discovered the phenomena late, will be surviving on very skinny pickings on property purchased post 2003.

How new purchases can generate profit (en-masse) in a stagnant, or falling market is a mystery. The chargeable rent will surely only cover the mortgage payment at best? Without allowances for voids, repairs and renewals, new property taken on as a buy to let acquisition appears to be in break even territory at best."

Buy-to-let mortgage growth predicted

http://www.myfinances.co.uk/news/mortgages...#036;351596.htm

Buy to let market stays strong

http://www.moneynews.co.uk/538/buy-to-let-...t-stays-strong/

Ordinary buyers have to save over 5 years to cobble a deposit together. BTLers have large effortless equity which they can use. They can remortage this equity, and put it towards a new property.

None of your 3 references show any bias towards investors whatsover?

Your second two references are just examples of bankers selling you debt. The bankers are the real ruling class you seem to aspire to - They earn far more without getting their hands dirty, with far smaller exposure to risk.

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You're right , Billy, saying the fundamentals don't justify such high prices but if houses are ''only'' 25% overvalued this will correct after 5 years of modest wage inflation without any nominal falls in HPs.

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You're right , Billy, saying the fundamentals don't justify such high prices but if houses are ''only'' 25% overvalued this will correct after 5 years of modest wage inflation without any nominal falls in HPs.

That's less modest wage inflation than we have at the moment isn't it? And that's assuming that prices will drop to the long term trend and not drop any further. Is this what usually happens in a crash?

Billy Shears

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

I am trying to get my head around this.

Andrew Lloyd-Webber is worth £700 million, he has taken out Britain`s biggest mortgage of £35 million at £150,000 monthly repayments. He will pay £10 million in interest over 25 years at his current IR. Each .25% rise in rates will cost him a further £7,000 per month. What on earth is he hoping to gain.

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MIKE MUSTARD

History shows that economies move in cycles. There are ups and downs, good times and bad times. However almost no one in Britain is capable of understanding this.

:lol::lol::lol:

it really does seem like this doesnt it

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Thats wrong. I am a bull and argue that fundementally, because of mass immigration, not controlle dimmigration, and the momentum of favourable investor legislation (removal of MIRAS, SIPPS etc..), super-low interest rates, HPI is justified on supply and demand terms, rising rental yeilds and the structural polarisation of credit.

All I hear from bears is that 'its because of the economic cycle'. I have news for you.

When credit gets more expensive, unemployment rises, houses in real terms will not get cheaper for a first time buyer!

This is a strutural change. Because of mass immigration of millions and millions of people, a tight rental market and great demand, society will shift futher to a ownership class and a hapless renting/tenant class - with higher taxes paying the housing benefit to the landlords for any unemployed/low skilled.

what are you wittering about?

the fractions of a % increase in popualtion will indeed have an effect, marginal, and not as much as speculation has. Germany had loadsa immigrants working for them in the 70s - didn't hold up values for long did it? What about France? It is my assertion that it is a bubble.

And this rubbish about the late 19th century - do you own factories and then let out property, subsidised (ie at a loss compared to capital opportunity elsewhere) , to your workers, to improve productivity, moral standards, and also your ability to control them? thought not. you are using a spurious unrepresentative example to hold up your non-argument. This is itself an indicator of a bubble.

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First time buyers cut down as the new Landlord class marches on

http://firstrung.co.uk/articles.asp?pageid...1631&cat=47-0-0

Buy-to-let mortgage growth predicted

http://www.myfinances.co.uk/news/mortgages...#036;351596.htm

Buy to let market stays strong

http://www.moneynews.co.uk/538/buy-to-let-...t-stays-strong/

All these links show is that there is a lot of BTL around or that BTL growth is being predicted by VIs. Where is the bias you keep invoking?

Ordinary buyers have to save over 5 years to cobble a deposit together. BTLers have large effortless equity which they can use. They can remortage this equity, and put it towards a new property.

Yes, a rich BTLer (i.e. one who has equity) has an advantage over a poor FTB (i.e. one who cannot raise a deposit) if they are competing to buy somewhere.

Similarly, a rich FTBer (e.g. one who gets a deposit from Mummy and Daddy) has an advantage over a poor BTLer (e.g. one who does not have any extractable equity and therefore cannot expand their property empire).

Again where is the bias? You haven't answered the question.

frugalista

edit: Ooops I just posted from the girlfriends machine so it appears to be from her account!

Edited by mistress_frugalista

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Good Post!

You were doing so well until the last line? Fancy Kirsty??? Yuk I would not touch here with your dick!!! :huh:

In economic terms it does not make sense as you quite rightly point out. But we have a problem in the Uk with people not seeing the wood for the trees.

A great example is the car deals.

Buy now for only £99 and then 36 months payments of £149! Final payment £6,495.26. Total amount financed £11,958.23. Total Repayable £16,265 APR 9.8%.

PEOPLE ONLY SEE £99 and £149. They dont realise what a RIP-off this is! At the final payment stage YOU the buyer have took the hit of the DEPRECIATION in the car! If you give it back to the trader he still ahs a car that worth less than Market value!

YOURE RIGHT - PEOPLE IN TH UK ARE THICK!!!

TB

Edited by teddyboy

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Good Post!

You were doing so well until the last line? Fancy Kirsty??? Yuk I would not touch here with your dick!!! :huh:

In economic terms it does not make sense as you quite rightly point out. But we have a problem in the Uk with people not seeing the wood for the trees.

A great example is the car deals.

Buy now for only £99 and then 36 months payments of £149! Final payment £6,495.26. Total amount financed £11,958.23. Total Repayable £16,265 APR 9.8%.

PEOPLE ONLY SEE £99 and £149. They dont realise what a RIP-off this is! At the final payment stage YOU the buyer have took the hit of the DEPRECIATION in the car! If you give it back to the trader he still ahs a car that worth less than Market value!

YOURE RIGHT - PEOPLE IN TH UK ARE THICK!!!

TB

Exactly! So why is everyone moaning. Come on thick people, buy, buy, buy, so people like us can profit from your misery.

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Good Post!

You were doing so well until the last line? Fancy Kirsty??? Yuk I would not touch here with your dick!!! :huh:

In economic terms it does not make sense as you quite rightly point out. But we have a problem in the Uk with people not seeing the wood for the trees.

A great example is the car deals.

Buy now for only £99 and then 36 months payments of £149! Final payment £6,495.26. Total amount financed £11,958.23. Total Repayable £16,265 APR 9.8%.

PEOPLE ONLY SEE £99 and £149. They dont realise what a RIP-off this is! At the final payment stage YOU the buyer have took the hit of the DEPRECIATION in the car! If you give it back to the trader he still ahs a car that worth less than Market value!

YOURE RIGHT - PEOPLE IN TH UK ARE THICK!!!

TB

Yes but it's a shiney new car that you can have now!! Ignore the fact that your existing car is doing the job quite well. That won't impress the neighbours.

What?> Save for it? Pah!

Edited by Solvent Celt

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  • 336 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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