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Personally I think, the market is set by those that don't sell ?!

I disagree, the house building industry sets house prices in regard to what the buyer can afford. And builders cannot sit on their backsides, they need to sell to stay in business.

Back in the real world, we need much higher IRs and much higher unemployment (i.e. much more pain in the pocket) before prices are going to come down.

A vast part of our economy depends on us selling houses to each other. And all the relevant services EA, Solicitors, Stamp Duty, removals, tradesmen, white goods brown goods any kind goods you care to mention all giving their cut to the chancellor when the housing market is working as it should.

In your scenario non of this happens to any significant degree, people in all these services get laid off. Unemployment rises, resulting in a weak economy therefore currency traders sell the pound. Cost of imports rise, inflation rises, interest rates rise to strengthen the pound and curb inflation. Taxes rise because the tax take is down and social services spending rises because of this. Those that are in a job end up with less take home pay, and bigger mortgage payment. Forced house sales increase in a market already facing downward pressure from the building industries need to turn houses over.

Welcome to the real world of economic cycles, welcome to a negative house market driven by Greeds twin brother Fear. Both dominate a market at some stage in the economic cycle, other wise there would not be a cycle. :rolleyes:

Edited by Catch22
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Personally I think, the market is set by those that don't sell ?!

As Rugby says, 90% of people are quite happy to not reduce prices and will just sit and wait. 5% need to sell and pitch 10% below the market rate.

These 5% sell within days/weeks and disappear off the market. New vendors, look at the 'market' and pitch at the higher price to 'see what happens' - hence the market stays where it is.

Hypothetical situation - 10 houses, all at £100k. 1 decides they need to sell and drops to £90k - due to pent up demand someone takes the bait and buys. Everything left on the market is at £100k, average price returns to £100k and new entry to market (as advised by EA) pitches at £100k. End result = stability, soft landing or stagnation, whatever you want to call it.

I'm not sure if you're being serious or sarcastic here, but I'll take the bait.

Lets take 100 identical houses all at 100k each, 5% need to sell = 5 people.

1 puts his price down to 90k, sells.

4 need-to-sell houses remaining. Having seen the result of the price cut, are they going to put their prices up or down?

20 more houses come on the market. 1 of which (5%) needs to sell.

Is this new need-to-sell going to price above or below the last sold price?

The market is composed of actual transactions, not asking prices. The people whose houses haven't sold have no effect on the market, whether they price at 100k, 200k, or 100million. Any buyer will first go for the cheaper price, which is always of the need-to-sell kind.

It only changes when more people NEED to sell, than are willing to buy. Then a bidding war can break out and prices will indeed fall.

In my opinion- demand is measured in £ asking and available, not numbers of buyers and sellers. In the last few years, £ available increased while £ asking took time to catch up. Then £ asking caught up and went further than £ available.

£ available = function of average income + % of this that people are able & willing to pay for housing.

First average income went up, then % of this that people were able to pay (low IR) and willing to pay (rising prices made people more willing).

When £ asking exceeds £ available, you get the scenario I outlined above

Otherwise you can also say that the market is set by those that don't buy :)

If I have only 5p left to buy a house, does that bring down the average house price.

Edited by 1source
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Bradford area is lagging the national trend, not being funny, but less desirable places to live get the inflation effect late in the cycle. This is due to people priced out of their preferred area of choice, looking in low priced areas and the supply and demand effect kicks in, in these area's. As an example check out the BBC Land Reg page now check Bradford's price and percentage ratio. Now type in  BD23 2RL, check out the "Craven" district see the difference in prices and +/_ last quarter and YOY. People working in Bradford would rather live near the Dales, but as the prices are at peak people priced out look elsewhere. And another indicator of price peak is there for all to see, when you compare Detached, Semi and Terrace percentage rises comparison. Terrace percentage rises beat Semi which beats Detached in price peak areas. That's because erstwhile Detached buyers are having to settle for Semi's, and Semi buyers are having to settle for Terraced. If ever you  needed a signal this market is at peak, there you have it.

The prices you quote for your old house or your neighbours are no where near recorded YOY percentage increases. For the reason I stated earlier, non selling houses don't register in the Sold data. What does land reg say about your particulare area ?

According to the info i got after typing the old postcode, the average in bradford is much less:

Bradford

Average Cost: £118,101

Detached: £236,393

Semi-detached: £123,442

Terraced: £86,812

Flat: £117,326

Change in last quarter: 4.6%

Change in last year: 10%

Sales: 2421

For your information, here's the property I sold back in aug 2004 for £90,000: http://www.paulswithey.co.uk/pwms/listings/l0022.html

I know that you might be think that its a huge property with 5 bedrooms, but look at the photo on the estate agent's site and what do you notice wrong about the neighbour's property?

From ground floor to the attic, its got smashed windows, which are brown-taped. Yes, its hard to admit, but the neighbours were a nightmare and I just had to leave for the sake of my family. The area is a drug-dealer's den and you get boy-racers booting their cars up/down the road all the time. I only lived here for 2 years and have seen 2 burglaries happen in my street. Its a total sh*tehole!!. Also note that I bought the property in 2002 @ only £54,000.

I still don't understand though that how the hell has the valuation almost doubled within only a matter of only 7 months after me selling?

Edited by Boom'n'Bust
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According to the info i got after typing the old postcode, the average in bradford is much less:

Bradford

Average Cost: £118,101

Detached: £236,393

Semi-detached: £123,442

Terraced: £86,812

Flat: £117,326

Change in last quarter: 4.6%

Change in last year: 10%

Sales: 2421

For your information, here's the property I sold back in aug 2004 for £90,000: http://www.paulswithey.co.uk/pwms/listings/l0022.html

I know that you might be think that its a huge property with 5 bedrooms, but look at the photo on the estate agent's site and what do you notice wrong about the neighbour's property?

From ground floor to the attic, its got smashed windows, which are brown-taped.  Yes, its hard to admit, but the neighbours were a nightmare and I just had to leave for the sake of my family.  The area is a drug-dealer's den and you get boy-racers booting their cars up/down the road all the time.  I only lived here for 2 years and have seen 2 burglaries happen in my street.  Its a total sh*tehole!!. Also note that I bought the property in 2002 @ only £54,000. 

I still don't understand though that how the hell has the valuation almost doubled within only a matter of only 7 months after me selling?

There is still some silly pricing going on where I live, it will be interesting to see if it sells.!!

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There is still some silly pricing going on where I live, it will be interesting to see if it sells.!!

So where do u live Lou G?

Yep it sure beggers belief  :ph34r:

I believe that the new owner doesn't really give a damn and has pushed the price deliberately high in the hope that some stupid FTB will come along and pay the price. The reason he's not bothered about selling the property is because he's already got tenants renting, so it doesn't affect him in the short term to sell.

Also one thing I can't understand is that even though the new owner of my property may have pushed the price up himself, but how does one explain the valuation of my neighbour on the left-side, who's house is in only slightly better condition and has had it valued at £180,000 in july!!! THATS DOUBLE MY VALUATION IN 2004!!!!! A 100% INCREASE!!! Now are the prices really going up that much in a year?? Something's not right.

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THATS DOUBLE MY VALUATION IN 2004!!!!!  A 100% INCREASE!!!  Now are the prices really going up that much in a year??  Something's not right.

I notice there is frost on the roofs and snow on the cars in the photo.......and in regards to the new valuations the phrase:

Hell will freeze over .... springs to mind :rolleyes:

That said why does your sale in 2004 not show up at the Land Reg, plus number 76 [ two doors away]was recorded in December 2004 @ 135Kfair to assume it was a summer come autum saleOurProperty.com

Said data would suggest your house was undersold in the region of 33% to what was achievable around that time. :ph34r:

Mind you this land reg data would appear very hit and miss regards recording sales in a uniformed time frame.

Edited by Catch22
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I know the area well. I cannot believe the price of properties in Bradford at the moment - who on earth is buying them.

Given the price of other properties in the street, your sale last year was quite a bargain for the purhaser. It does seem to be missing from the records though which is a bit worrying:

17 Feb 2005 107 Shipleyfields Road, Shipley,

Semi-Detached £170,000

21 Jan 2005 128 Shipleyfields Road, Shipley,

Terraced £140,000

23 Dec 2004 76 Shipleyfields Road, Shipley,

Terraced £135,000

26 Jan 2004 108 Shipleyfields Road, Shipley,

Terraced £89,025

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I know the area well. I cannot believe the price of properties in Bradford at the moment - who on earth is buying them.

Given the price of other properties in the street, your sale last year was quite a bargain for the purhaser. It does seem to be missing from the records though which is a bit worrying:

17 Feb 2005 107 Shipleyfields Road, Shipley,

Semi-Detached £170,000

21 Jan 2005 128 Shipleyfields Road, Shipley,

Terraced £140,000

23 Dec 2004 76 Shipleyfields Road, Shipley,

Terraced £135,000

26 Jan 2004 108 Shipleyfields Road, Shipley,

Terraced £89,025

I hope i haven't sold it too cheap :unsure::(

But do note that shipley fields road on one side has terrace houses and the other it has semi-detached houses which do go more expensive. If you look at what I bought the house for in nov 2002 for £54,000, you'll see that I still sold my house almost double its value by 2004.

Also the prices for this street back to pre 2002 levels were only in the range of £40k to £55k MAX!! so in your opinion, would you say that they the prices have ridiculously gone up??

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I hope i haven't sold it too cheap    :unsure:  :(

But do note that shipley fields road on one side has terrace houses and the other it has semi-detached houses which do go more expensive.  If you look at what I bought the house for in nov 2002 for £54,000, you'll see that I still sold my house almost double its value by 2004.

Also the prices for this street back to pre 2002 levels were only in the range of £40k to £55k MAX!! so in your opinion, would you say that they the prices have ridiculously gone up??

I don't know whether you sold it too cheap. You got what you got an hopefully that is good enough. Given that it is now on for £155k and was bought on 22 November 2002 for £54k it shows a pretty hefty price increase. I personally hope that it does not sell. Imagine paying that sort of money for something next to a derelict dump. It is only suitable purchase fodder for BTL.

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I don't know whether you sold it too cheap. You got what you got an hopefully that is good enough. Given that it is now on for £155k and was bought on 22 November 2002 for £54k it shows a pretty hefty price increase. I personally hope that it does not sell. Imagine paying that sort of money for something next to a derelict dump. It is only suitable purchase fodder for BTL.

Well as far as I'm aware, the property is being let to a private tenant and at the same time its still on sale and hasn't been sold as yet. This area as I said is one of the worst in my honest opinion. You get noisy neighbours, drug dealing, boy racers and unemployed groups of teenagers hanging around all the time. I'm glad I got out of that area as I'm a quite family man and just want a simple life. BTW here's the profile for this area: http://www.upmystreet.com/local/my-neighbo...l/BD18+2DL.html

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Christ, what an awful area! They should be paying you to live there!

I think one of the reasons, and perhaps the main one, for these property price rises in Northern areas is down to the huge ammount of money being poured in to the local economies by the Government. Piss poorly paid manufacturing jobs are dissapearing and being replaced by lots of (non?) jobs in health, education, local government, police etc. etc. Salary increases in the public sector are also outstripping both inflation and wage rises in the private sector by quite an ammount. Mr. Brown is also increasing spending by an extra 3.6% this year, so no slow up there!

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House 3 doors up from where I'm renting at the moment has just sold at £155k - the one I'm in which is fundamentally the same sold 18 months ago at £104k.

The previous record was £135k just 6 months ago.

Some house price crash ?!!!

There is no sign of this thing slowing down whatsoever. Everything I see coming onto the market is now 20% higher than 12 months ago and its still escalating.

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House 3 doors up from where I'm renting at the moment has just sold at £155k - the one I'm in which is fundamentally the same sold 18 months ago at £104k.

The previous record was £135k just 6 months ago.

Some house price crash ?!!!

There is no sign of this thing slowing down whatsoever. Everything I see coming onto the market is now 20% higher than 12 months ago and its still escalating.

Which area are you from mate?

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Leeds: Over 5,000 new flats have been built in and near the centre since 2000, mostly aimed at investors relying on young professional renters. But local agent Allsops says between 900 and 1,200 are up for resale as landlords are hit by rising voids and falling yields. There will be another 600 to 800 flats completed by 2005. 'It's difficult to predict whether there are enough tenants out there in the market to fill these,' warns Allsop's Andrew Wells.

http://money.guardian.co.uk/property/movin...1535710,00.html

Edit: he may mean 2006

Have actually heard that the situation in Leeds is even worse than has been painted. There are apparently over 4000 2 bed flats under construction or for sale in the central Leeds area. There are also planning permissions for the construction of a further 4200. I work opposite Criterion Place in Leeds and we are awaiting with interest the construction of the 47 storey (that is forty seven!!) residential tower they propose to build. Who do they think is going to live there? You can get certain "personal services" in this area of Leeds in the evening but there is nowhere to buy a pint of milk.

There are several anecdotes that I have gleaned professionally that point to a crash. A London-based friend whose work brings him to Leeds 2-3 times a month got sick of paying Marriott/Malmaison midweek rates and decided to rent one of the flats on Concordia St. Large warehouse-style 2 bed "yuppyflat" was on with a local agent at £1200pcm (this was last summer). He thought that a bit high but the numbers still just about worked so he moved in. After a month he is walking out of the building and on the notice board is an advert for a flat in the building (they are all identical) at £800pcm with believe it or not the same agent! He rang irate and they agreed to move him to the cheaper flat. 2 months later in October he got a call from the agents apologising but saying that the flat he was renting was being sold but that they had another in the building he could rent for £600!!

Those who know Leeds may be aware of a development near the TA barracks. These developments rely on off-plan sales and subsequent phase completion to provide capital to complete the other phases. One client bought 6 of these flats a year ago off-plan at £180k each by paying a 10% deposit or 108k. Unfortunately the remaining flats are now likely to be marketed at a more realistic 150k. In effect the client has a choice - pay up the balance which is £162k or 12k more than he could buy afresh or walk away and lose his deposit. Of course his situation is not helped by the fact that even were he to take up all 6 flats there is no guarantee in a saturated market that he will be able to rent them out. Also in order to justify the exercise he would need to be charging rent of at least 10k per annum per flat in an area close to Meanwood Gipton and Harehills!! If he bails out then the builder will not have nearly £1m he thought he would and will have to sell 6 more flats. Or (as the previous firm did) go bust.

There will be some dream cheap deals on 2 bed flats in Leeds in about 2 years time. A 2 bed flat in the centre of Leeds for 60-80k. As for these mills being sold in places like Bingley......

Foxytrader

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A colleague of mine has just sold his two bed flat in Leeds.

EA said that last year it would have gone for £15K more, but he still got out with a good rise over the price he paid a 2 – 3 years back.

He is now renting a new 2 bed in one of the more desirable parts of Leeds centre’s new build land.

His rent is £650 a month for a flat that we estimate the buyer would have paid over £200K for, possibly £220K.

It is looking like it is going to get very, very ugly in Leeds soon.

Completed 2 bed BTL new builds still empty 10 months after completion, rents are falling and still the building boom goes on.

First post - hope it lands OK.

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Does anyone know what happened to that development at the end of North Street on the corner by the flyover - further down towards town than Hansas and that toy shop which has closed down recently. It had a big banner up saying something like "better than a hotel" a couple of years back and then building works stopped. It has been left like that ever since.

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Aire Valley...Skipton Silsden Keighley...quiet again, still more properties coming on plus "new price" reductions [nothing deep though] plus O.I.R.O plus "unexpectedly reoffered" now I know this house as my mechanics been after it for months, March I think.

Link

It was on @210K and his wife wanted to get a loan on it even though they had not had an offer on their house. Broker said it was do-able but I talked him out of it. Anyway seller swapped agents back in April as they promised to sell it in three weeks on a 10K reduced asking price. Well here we are back end of August and it ain't sold, plus in March I knew the vendor had moved to Scotland, so he must be out alot of money in extended finance.

Edited by Catch22
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http://news.ft.com/cms/s/e50f4b52-cc6b-11d...000e2511c8.html

Bets are on a soft landing for houses By Josephine Cumbo -  Financial Times

Published: May 27 2005 17:43

If spread betters are any guide, UK house prices are set for a softer landing than many predict. Since the country’s only spread betting firm to offer trades on house price movements reopened its books to new business in April, punters’ expectations of near double-digit falls have waned.

IG Index had priced a year-on-year fall of about 9 per cent in the average UK house price of £163,000 when it started taking bets on what house prices would be in March 2006. However, a steady stream of bullish trades has seen the firm’s quote rise from a middle-of-spread price of £149,000 to £159,000. This represents a fall of just 3 per cent.

“Generally, people are now not expecting doom and gloom,” says Will Armitage, a senior official with IG Index

Sorry Big Boobs but I used to work for IG Index and the house index trading is terribly illiquid. All that means is that if you have a spread of 155/160 for the average house price and I come in and make a modest "up" bet (say £500 per point) then the bookie will move the price to 157/162 for the next punter. That does NOT mean that the market has suddenly firmed by over 1% just that someone thinks there might be some "value". We are talking a few dozen punters at most and we are also talking the same fools who swore blind dotcoms weren't overvalued in 2001. This is a pure vested-interest "puff" article.

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Aire Valley...Skipton Silsden Keighley...quiet again, still more properties coming on plus "new price" reductions [nothing deep though] plus O.I.R.O plus  "unexpectedly reoffered" now I know this house as my mechanics been after it for months, March I think.

Link

It was on @210K and his wife wanted to get a loan on it even though they had not had an offer on their house. Broker said it was do-able but I talked him out of it. Anyway seller swapped agents back in April as they promised to sell it in three weeks on a 10K reduced asking price. Well here we are back end of August and it ain't sold, plus in March I knew the vendor had moved to Scotland,  so he must be out alot of money in extended finance.

Is it just me or is there no kitchen on that floorplan?

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Is it just me or is there no kitchen on that floorplan?

Its an ex tied estate house, so I would imagine the kitchen is basic, the agent should have labelled that room Dining Kitchen. My mechanic was hoping to build an extension on the side. Needs money spending on it, but because it is in "The National Park" it is marked up price wise.

Well over valued in my opinion, plus in The National Park" getting planning can be a bit of a pain.

Edited by Catch22
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There seems to have been a very large increase recently in the number of properties with 'To Let' boards outside them in the Holmfirth/South Huddersfield area and there's just a suggestion that this extra competition is softening rental prices :) Possibly a temporary phenomena? I guess we'll see what happens over the winter!

I was also privately advised by a local agent to give the market time to 'sort itself out' and to wait until next year before even starting to look for another property. He also said that the bottom of the market had some movement along with the the top priced properties but the rest of the market inbetween was completly dead.

Edited by 737
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  • 439 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

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