Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
DoubleBubbleTrouble

Government Reponse To Barker Review:-

Recommended Posts

Another nearly choking moment as I read the government's response to the Barker report (the summary version, spintastic document);

http://www.odpm.gov.uk/index.asp?id=1163846

Facts about affordability

* One million more home owners since 1997 thanks to lower mortgage rates making homeownership more affordable.

* A more stable housing market in contrast to the recession and repossession in the late 90s

Oh for goodness sake... who do they think they are kidding...?

Also found this gem in there;

"By 2026 only three out of ten of today's ten year olds will be able to afford to buy a home when they have families of their own if we stick with current building rates."

Links to all the documents;

http://www.pricedout.org.uk/Research/Gover...06/Default.aspx

Edited by DoubleBubbleTrouble

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
affordability fiction:

* One million more home owners since 1997 thanks to lower mortgage rates making homeownership more affordable.

* A more stable housing market in contrast to the recession and repossession in the late 90s

Deciphered!

affordability fact:

* One million more home owners since 1997 thanks to Speculation & lower mortgage rates. Making larger loans at low rates the same as having smaller loans at high rates. So that's why we (the labour party) are boasting about low rates as that's the level of our financial acumen. Only were ****'d if rates rise only a bit as we have stretched ourselves at record low rates.

* A more Unstable housing market in contrast to the recession and repossession in the late 90s, as this Boom has excelled anything before, the potential fallout/bust from the mother of all booms will make the 90's repossession/recession look like a picnic.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
One million more home owners since 1997 thanks to lower mortgage rates making homeownership more affordable .

Thanks doublebubbletrouble. The first bit is factual, but before the second bit had any validity as a conclusion I would have to ask:

How many new households have formed since 1997?

What was the proportion of homeowners v households in 1997?

What is the proportion of homeowners v households in 2006?

Since the bubble is a fairly recent phenomena encompassing 2002- the present. I would then want to know:

How many more homeowners since 2001?

How many new households have formed since 2001?

What was the proportion of homeowners v households in 2001?

What is the proportion of homeowners v households in 2006?

This whole country current runs on inadequate analysis based on forgone conclusions.

EDIT:

Anyway, I'm past charity. I really don't care whether current 10 year olds will ever own their own home. I can't own my own home, why should I care about them. I am sure the government will for me, with my taxes (paying for there counselling due to anti-social behaviour and beating up pensioners (as I will be) caused by a lack of hope of homeownership - it will be the new growth counselling area and they will put tax up 2p and reduce pensions to pay for it).

Edited by Elizabeth

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks doublebubbletrouble. The first bit is factual, but before the second bit had any validity as a conclusion I would have to ask:

How many new households have formed since 1997?

What was the proportion of homeowners v households in 1997?

What is the proportion of homeowners v households in 2006?

Since the bubble is a fairly recent phenomena encompassing 2002- the present. I would then want to know:

How many more homeowners since 2001?

How many new households have formed since 2001?

What was the proportion of homeowners v households in 2001?

What is the proportion of homeowners v households in 2006?

You can get those stats through the links here in particular you want the ODPM link at the bottom.

Newly built homes (only private, excluding social homes building) data from here;

1997 160,636

1998 152,857

1999 160,168

2000 152,267

2001 153,132

2002 163,706

2003 171,558

2004 183,168

= 1,297,492

Given 3/4 of the market is owner occupier creating a million new home owners with that amount of homes built isn't exactly difficult is it!

The figures in the Barker Review say that the ODPM current forecast is 190,000 new homes are formed every year up to 2026.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you own 25% of a tent on a 100% mortgage you are now considered a 'home owner', as with most things from this government, the statistics belie reality.

= 1,297,492

Given 3/4 of the market is owner occupier creating a million new home owners with that amount of homes built isn't exactly difficult is it!

The mix is all wrong, over 50% of building starts are for rabbit hutches with 70% being on industrial sites. These are not family homes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"By 2026 only three out of ten of today's ten year olds will be able to afford to buy a home when they have families of their own if we stick with current building rates."

Three out of ten, how on earth will any of them afford!!

Let's do some simple maths:

3 fold increse in 7 years

2026 is in twenty years time (2026-2006) Is this simple enough govnt.

Just as you (the Govnt.) manipulate stats. I shall do so but be upfront about it..

Let's call 20 years 21 years saves getting out the calculator (I can't be assed to give Govnt. too much of my time)

3 cubed is 27 (If you haven't caught on Govnt. that's 3*3*3 whcih is 3 treblings 1 trembling for each 7 year period)

Now average price is around £200K (agin rouded up slightly but will compensate with my next figures)

2026 avg. price therefore 27 *£200K = £5.4M

Wages now let's say £25K (I know a lot don't earn that me included, this is the compensation bit)

Let's assume 3.5% increase per year wage rises

Using the rule of 72 i.e divide 72 by % rise gives approx time to double.

Now 20 * 3.5% gies us 70 which is nearly 72

So in the 20 years wage will double (approx)

PAy (2026) = £50K Average propery = £5M (Round down to allow for some stagnation in the market, and to make maths easy)

therfore will have to borrow 100 times multiple of income.

Now unles the 3 out of 10 work in the squre mile with amazing bonuses abd great basic pay how the feck do they expect anyone to afford.

Yes I agree they need to build more. Yes better late then never but surely there is a whole host of other issues that need to be addressed to stem and reverse this utter madness

In 'how long is a piece of string' a chapter aptly named 'How do conmen get rich?' has a paragraph titled 'All bubbles burst eventually' I like the part 'After a while, people buy purely on the assumption that they will be able to flog what they have to somebody else for even more It has to stop somewhere.'

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Newly built homes (only private, excluding social homes building) data from here;

1997 160,636

1998 152,857

1999 160,168

2000 152,267

2001 153,132

2002 163,706

2003 171,558

2004 183,168

= 1,297,492

Given 3/4 of the market is owner occupier creating a million new home owners with that amount of homes built isn't exactly difficult is it!

And anyone who exercised right to buy is also a new homeowner I presume.

frugalista

Facts about affordability

* One million more home owners since 1997 thanks to lower mortgage rates making homeownership more affordable.

Affordability now is a lot worse than 1997.

Back then average FTB mortgage payments were about 25% of take home pay. Now it is about 45%.

frugalista

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And anyone who exercised right to buy is also a new homeowner I presume.

Of course, and here's the shocking bit from these stats....

Local Authorities built;

1990/91 16,550

1991/92 10,027

1992/93 4,433

1993/94 3,611

1994/95 2,970

1995/96 3,045

1996/97 1,538

1997/98 1,519

1998/99 881

1999/00 347

2000/01 382

2001/02 225

2002/03 301

2003/04 207

2004/05 131

So much for social housing! And from a Labour goverment too...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Of course, and here's the shocking bit from these stats....

Local Authorities built;

1990/91 16,550

1991/92 10,027

1992/93 4,433

1993/94 3,611

1994/95 2,970

1995/96 3,045

1996/97 1,538

1997/98 1,519

1998/99 881

1999/00 347

2000/01 382

2001/02 225

2002/03 301

2003/04 207

2004/05 131

So much for social housing! And from a Labour goverment too...

Isn't that because they shifted all the responsibility and funds to housing associations, who now have plenty of funds for building projects so long as they fit in with very restrictive guidelines - ie they have to build new rabbit hutches, high density, almost certainly on brown-field sites* and take responsibility for housing 90% of the council housing list.

*Nothing wrong with using urban land of course, just that HAs used to have far more freedom - these days they are selling off decent street properties to invest in crappy new housing schemes, thus increasing the amount of future slums in our cities.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's the figures in full

 Registered		Private	Social	Local	AllEnterprise	Landlords	Authorities	Dwellings162,182 	 19,342 	 16,550 	 198,074 160,664 	 21,134 	 10,027 	 191,825 144,367 	 30,115 	 4,433 	 178,915 145,914 	 36,435 	 3,611 	 185,960 156,547 	 37,652 	 2,970 	 197,169 156,697 	 38,471 	 3,045 	 198,213 153,137 	 30,951 	 1,538 	 185,626 160,636 	 28,554 	 1,519 	 190,709 152,857 	 22,902 	 881 	 176,640 160,168 	 24,141 	 347 	 184,656 152,267 	 23,850 	 382 	 176,499 153,132 	 21,747 	 225 	 175,104 163,706 	 19,745 	 301 	 183,752 171,558 	 18,370 	 207 	 190,135 183,168 	 22,692 	 131 	 205,991 

Difficult to see where the slack is being taken up...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

these stats say it all.

nu labour is the new thatcher.

They're one step better, Thatcher never had the balls to sack doctors and nurses from the NHS, this government delights in it.

I'd say the word 'unprincipled' is rather charitable, even more reason why government shouldn't control the planning system.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
They're one step better, Thatcher never had the balls to sack doctors and nurses from the NHS, this government delights in it.

maybe at least thatcher socked it to you, but she told you she was socking it to you.

nu lab have sneaked in some nasty stuff. sneaked being the best word to use.

what about those election pledge cards and that things can only get better song if:

1. we are going to stop building any social housing.

2. we are going to flood the uk with 3rd world immigrants.

3. we are going to fiddle inflation figures and get us into high debt.

4. we MPs are going to build personal property portfolios.

i dont think they would have got in.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This bit in the goverment response made me laugh, although I am deliberately misinterpreting it :lol:

The sites [referring to some hospital sites freed up for new homes] are estimated to have the potential to deliver about 14,000 new homes, up to half of which are affordable, as well as...
Edited by DoubleBubbleTrouble

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.