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I Admit - The Bulls Were Right


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I find this site very interesting and have been following since last summer. At no time did I come to the conclusion that if a crash, correction whatever hadn't happened by x month 2006 then it would all be over. Since joining I have had an, ahem, crash course in property economics, I certainly feel more informed than before. So, I have to say I am mystified by some of the reactions here to what clearly is the spring bounce that many have predicted moons ago. What is all the fuss about? Also, historically speaking, this is the mother of all bubbles so it is going to take far longer to play out.

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Actually rather then use the word 'battle' maybe I should just refer to the time frame from Aug 2004 - April 2006

I’m simply pointing out that it is taking longer for the wider market to realise that the market is on a downward trend – that is a FACT since Aug 2004

But reality check – the general public don’t know this yet

They should, but thanks to the Sun, Express, BBC etc, they don’t and that is a FACT

In that respect I think the ‘bulls’ have this particular battle (time frame)

PS But its far from over

House prices have hardly moved during that time period, in spite of overwhelming optimism in the general public and the media. When the majority even begins to doubt, prices will tumble. Sooner or later people will tire of cheery optimists in the media.

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You actually asked me several questions, not one.

None of them seemed worthy of a reply.

However, if you insist on an answer to your question above, I post on here because I want to. Do you have a problem with that?

OK... Slowing down slightly more now....

Why would you want to post on a site such as this other than to gloat?

To be perfectly honest I don't expect a proper response other than the playground level of "because I want to...." To take this to a level to which you might be more accustomed....

You smell of bull poo!

:lol:

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Also, historically speaking, this is the mother of all bubbles so it is going to take far longer to play out.

To add to my original post sub heading “It’s different this time”

Most things in life cut two ways, for a positive there’s often a negative, for an upside there is often a downside etc,

Following that through, if HPI has been a massive positive/upside and certainly different (bigger and longer than before)

What will the opposite be?

Forget the HPC figures from last time – this one (when it arrives) will make the last one look like a picnic

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Actually rather then use the word 'battle' maybe I should just refer to the time frame from Aug 2004 - April 2006

I’m simply pointing out that it is taking longer for the wider market to realise that the market is on a downward trend – that is a FACT since Aug 2004

But reality check – the general public don’t know this yet

They should, but thanks to the Sun, Express, BBC etc, they don’t and that is a FACT

In that respect I think the ‘bulls’ have this particular battle (time frame)

PS But its far from over

You'll have a hard job convincing estate agents in London and the South East the market is on a downward trend. There was a sticky patch, prices did harden, offers were taken. Now it's business as usual. Good stuff is selling on a phone call.

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OK... Slowing down slightly more now....

Why would you want to post on a site such as this other than to gloat?

To be perfectly honest I don't expect a proper response other than the playground level of "because I want to...." To take this to a level to which you might be more accustomed....

You smell of bull poo!

:lol:

Why don't you post something (constructive) that proves my original post to be incorrect?

I don't mind being proved wrong...

You seem to have a problem with other people's opinions that don't fall in line with your own.

Your MAIN problem is you can only deal with this by attempting to ridicule these people...

Edited by Without_a_Paddle
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Forget the HPC figures from last time – this one (when it arrives) will make the last one look like a picnic

How many millions have the government gave to employ how many debt advisors?

How many Brits own property abroad and how many financed it from their piggy banks?

How many Brits had small mortgages and now have 150k plus mortgages?

Well it points to something very interesting happening in the future. They are filling the dam with polyfilla but the pressure is now becoming too great to stop it from bursting. ;)

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Now take rising inflation + rising interest rates + negative sentiment + increased housing supply + tightening lending criteria + hesitation = ????

What rising inflation? Up and down a bit but generally on trend.

What rising interest rates? Last move was down. Higher interest rates are used to control inflation in economies with demand that outpaces supply. Does not apply to UK. Government will let sterling fall a lot before interest rates are raised.

What negative sentiment? A few dozen people on here with negative sentiment does not affect a market still driven by overwhelmingly positive sentiment. For most people their house is their only asset, the only bit of wealth they accrue in their lives. Hell will freeze over before sentiment about property turns negative.

Increased housing supply???????????? A couple of Prescott loony schemes will have no effect.

Tightening lending criteria? Lenders vary their criteria to suit their situation. If they want to lend more they loosen and tighten when they have met their targets. This is normal. An odd lender changing their criteria is not evidence of credit tightening. From where I sit, people can still borrow pretty much whatever they want.

Hesitation? Hesitation! I'm in the middle of a real bull market. If people hesitate the place is gone. Not much staying on for more than a week or two at the moment.

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Still at cruising speed in the South West. The report in the Express today is a bearish report from where i'm looking. The're only talking about what has happened (in a 10 Yr time frame,which I can't argue about). No mention of what been happening for the last 18/24 months & printed on the busiest weekend of the year for the housing market. Nuff said.

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An odd lender changing their criteria is not evidence of credit tightening. From where I sit, people can still borrow pretty much whatever they want.

They are now writing off billions in bad debts, how much more will they take? They are now losing £20 on every £100 they lend. :rolleyes:

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like Marina and me and some others you've realised that if prices have held up the past 3 years all it takes is another 5 years of stagnation for houses to be quite affordable assuming IRs remain quite low....i

think we'll see 10 years of stagnation with salaries rising 50% .......i previously predicted falls of 20% in the time it took for incomes to rise 20%.......Low inflation and low irs which i thought were a flash in the pan will allow the first scenario.

Michael,

With all due respect - What are you smoking????

Your predictions are sooo off the mark that I dont believe any off the 3 will come to fruition.

The low interest rates?

Well NO-ONE knows whats gonna happen to these but for the short/midterm it looks like UP. I think IR in the future will be between 4-7%. This is stability. I think from now we will look at 5.75% as the average for some 10 years.

10 Years of stagnation?

This is ludicrous! EA's cant help but through 5K here and 15K there on every property. They could not price to sell if they tried. The greedy mofo's and always will be. The housing market CANT stagnate for the long. There is too much money in it and stagnation means are MAJOR drop in transactions. This market cannot stagnate for more than 2 years.

Salaries rising 50%?

B0LL0X! I earn 25K. For me to get a 50% increase that takes it to 37.5K. I calculate that I need to get a pay rise of 4% each year EVERY year. This year I am getting NO PAYRISE. The reason being that our company is getting squeezed so tight for prices that we made a loss last year. Our main client is squeezing on cutting a cost to them by 50%!!! GB has phucked up the economy so much that firms like Unilever are having a bad time and need to cut costs. Eastern Europe and Asia are touting for all our work because we are TOO expensive!!! So how can I demand a payrise of 4% YoY??? GB is telling us inflation is 2%. I have only been getting rises of 2-3% fpr the last 4 years. Where's the growth in business to fund this wage bill?

Not sure if you have noticed. Unemployment is rising fast and will continue too because GB has phucked our economy altogether. He has even announced that he will CAP Wage Inflation for Public Sector workers to 3%

Sorry to be harsh but I think you are living is a dream-land.

Try stating your scenario with real-world realitise and Im sure you will revise your predictions.

TB

Edited by teddyboy
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Im afraid that all you need to do is look around you. SOLD SOLD SOLD SOLD If this is the start of a crash then the bears were right all along !

There is only so much graph watching, reading, researching etc you can do but the real answer is all around you and that is properties are moving very slowly at the moment and im afraid to say it's UP!!!!

SOLD SOLD SOLD, How long will YOU hang on hoping for this CRASH to happen ?? Im afraid things are different this time round but it's your choice, will you be here this time next year, 2 years, 3 years looking back thinking i wish i had jumped on in 2006 it was a lot more affordable then !

Edited by rent please
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This boom has gone on longer than most ‘bears’ expected/predicted

Many people on this forum (myself included) have compared this boom to the last one and what seemed like the peak in August 2004 was, with hindsight called too early by many (again, myself included)

Wrong. Wrong WRong WRONG WRONG WRONG. For F**KS sake. WRONG.

August 2004 WAS the peak. It was the division between the BULL and the BEAR markets.

For the past 18 months+ British Residential Property has been well and truly ensconsed in a BEAR market.

The peak was called correctly in so far as the dividing point between EASY MONEY and DIFFICULT MONEY is concerned.

Events since then have been results of seedy MONETARY POLICY and SENTIMENT massaging by our equally seedy red light Central Bank and dirty backstreet GOVERNMENT.

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rent please

Not another over leveraged BTL landlord. :rolleyes:

No im not a landlord im a FTB that has waited since 2004 and fed up with waiting a listening to others keep talking graphs etc when all i have done is open my eyes !!

My choice yes !! and if im wrong im wrong but i have been wrong since 2004 so far to wait until now !!

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You'll have a hard job convincing estate agents in London and the South East the market is on a downward trend. There was a sticky patch, prices did harden, offers were taken. Now it's business as usual. Good stuff is selling on a phone call.

I wouldn't dream of doing that, one of my relations is an estate agent here in Surrey and they are selling lots, the local market has picked up - fact

They are not concerned with downward trends, just the sales figures for this month, salaries, overheads, rent, which take priority over trends

that doesn't change the fact when sentiment changes (and it will) the excessive HPI will result in excessive and sadly OTT HPC

One extreme to the other

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Im afraid that all you need to do is look around you. SOLD SOLD SOLD SOLD If this is the start of a crash then the bears were right all along !

There is only so much graph watching, reading, researching etc you can do but the real answer is all around you and that is properties are moving very slowly at the moment and im afraid to say it's UP!!!!

SOLD SOLD SOLD, How long will YOU hang on hoping for this CRASH to happen ?? Im afraid things are different this time round but it's your choice, will you be here this time next year, 2 years, 3 years looking back thinking i wish i had jumped on in 2006 it was a lot more affordable then !

I find your ideas intriguing / interesting and wish to subscribe to your newsletter / journal

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SOLD SOLD SOLD, How long will YOU hang on hoping for this CRASH to happen ?? Im afraid things are different this time round but it's your choice, will you be here this time next year, 2 years, 3 years looking back thinking i wish i had jumped on in 2006 it was a lot more affordable then !

FFS!!!!

IF.... IR's stay low

IF.... I get a payrise every year

IF.... The economy is strong and employment high

IF.... Utility bills are capped to the rate of inflation

IF.... ALL OF THESE THINGS STAY THE SAME FOR 25 YEARS

Then YES I would buy a house. The fact is

I am not getting a pay-rise!

I am not secure in my job

Utility bills have risen 40% in 12 months!

Unemployment is rising FAST!

IR's look like they will be going up!

So tell me WHY in 2-3 years time GB PLC is going to be in a better shape>?????

And try telling all the 20 Year Olds and younger out there - Why did you not buy in 2006 it was more afdfordable??? 18 y.o. generally earn sub 15K so how the f*ck could they have bought?

You are talking complete **** - get real with society and not hypothetical scenario's.

I could say that in 2-3 years time we could all say "Bet you feel shit that you bought in 2006 coz I enjoyed buying your £180K house for 120K" but I wont.

TB

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Im afraid that all you need to do is look around you. SOLD SOLD SOLD SOLD If this is the start of a crash then the bears were right all along !

There is only so much graph watching, reading, researching etc you can do but the real answer is all around you and that is properties are moving very slowly at the moment and im afraid to say it's UP!!!!

SOLD SOLD SOLD, How long will YOU hang on hoping for this CRASH to happen ?? Im afraid things are different this time round but it's your choice, will you be here this time next year, 2 years, 3 years looking back thinking i wish i had jumped on in 2006 it was a lot more affordable then !

Listen buster. We don't like weak types like yours around here. Now either you have more balls and stick it out and take it like a man, or you p!ss right off to the sorry hole you came from.

NO LOSERS HERE.

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Wrong. Wrong WRong WRONG WRONG WRONG. For F**KS sake. WRONG.

August 2004 WAS the peak. It was the division between the BULL and the BEAR markets.

For the past 18 months+ British Residential Property has been well and truly ensconsed in a BEAR market.

The peak was called correctly in so far as the dividing point between EASY MONEY and DIFFICULT MONEY is concerned.

Events since then have been results of seedy MONETARY POLICY and SENTIMENT massaging by our equally seedy red light Central Bank and dirty backstreet GOVERNMENT.

I used the bear/bull thing tomake the opening post brief

I've since clarified/changed that a bit

Aug 2004 may have been the financial peak, but for millions of homeowners, it is sentiment that really counts and that certainly did not peak in Aug 2004

The Daily Express ran an article a couple of days back telling milions of people that things are still good

the peak/trough stuff is only understood by the minority, sentiment influenced by VI controlled mass media is that is what counts (in the current battle) and in that respect there is still a boom

Question is - is it sustainable?

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Listen buster. We don't like weak types like yours around here. Now either you have more balls and stick it out and take it like a man, or you p!ss right off to the sorry hole you came from.

NO LOSERS HERE.

Ok Buster :lol: You pecker !! Get a grip who are YOU to tell people who can come and go !!! Maybe i have got the BALLS to do what im doing and you aint got the BALLS that's why your sticking it out :lol::lol: you sad git!!!!!

FFS!!!!

IF.... IR's stay low

IF.... I get a payrise every year

IF.... The economy is strong and employment high

IF.... Utility bills are capped to the rate of inflation

IF.... ALL OF THESE THINGS STAY THE SAME FOR 25 YEARS

Then YES I would buy a house. The fact is

I am not getting a pay-rise!

I am not secure in my job

Utility bills have risen 40% in 12 months!

Unemployment is rising FAST!

IR's look like they will be going up!

So tell me WHY in 2-3 years time GB PLC is going to be in a better shape>?????

And try telling all the 20 Year Olds and younger out there - Why did you not buy in 2006 it was more afdfordable??? 18 y.o. generally earn sub 15K so how the f*ck could they have bought?

You are talking complete **** - get real with society and not hypothetical scenario's.

I could say that in 2-3 years time we could all say "Bet you feel shit that you bought in 2006 coz I enjoyed buying your £180K house for 120K" but I wont.

TB

I think you are talking complete xxxx who mentioned 18 to 20 year olds ? Only you !!! i could not buy when i was 18 or 20 so why should you be able to now !!! You can say what you like but PEOPLE ARE BUYING !!! just look around you and stop putting words in my mouth ! I did not say anything about 18 / 20 year olds !! And if your not getting a pay rise then get off your backside and stop moaning about it and get a better job ! but i suppose it's easier to come on here and moan about it :lol:

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