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88Crash

I Admit - The Bulls Were Right

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The bulls were right – it really is different this time!

This boom has gone on longer than most ‘bears’ expected/predicted

Many people on this forum (myself included) have compared this boom to the last one and what seemed like the peak in August 2004 was, with hindsight called too early by many (again, myself included)

A combination of an unprecedented VI onslaught and ‘Miracle Brown’ reducing interest rates last year have won the battle!

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But not won the war... ;)

I'm assuming that the above was tinged with sarcasm...

If not... Calm down dear, take a chill pill, grow some balls and wait this out with the rest of us..

:lol::lol::lol:

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But not won the war... ;)

I'm assuming that the above was tinged with sarcasm...

If not... Calm down dear, take a chill pill, grow some balls and wait this out with the rest of us..

:lol::lol::lol:

Actualy no sarcasm intended at all, thats my exact take on things today

However you noticed the difference between winning a battle and a WAR

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like Marina and me and some others you've realised that if prices have held up the past 3 years all it takes is another 5 years of stagnation for houses to be quite affordable assuming IRs remain quite low....i

think we'll see 10 years of stagnation with salaries rising 50% .......i previously predicted falls of 20% in the time it took for incomes to rise 20%.......Low inflation and low irs which i thought were a flash in the pan will allow the first scenario

like Marina and me and some others you've realised that if prices have held up the past 3 years all it takes is another 5 years of stagnation for houses to be quite affordable assuming IRs remain quite low....i

think we'll see 10 years of stagnation with salaries rising 50% .......i previously predicted ( when i joined the site and for a long time after)falls of 20% in the time it took for incomes to rise 20%.......Low inflation and low irs which i thought were a flash in the pan will allow the first scenario

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Actualy no sarcasm intended at all, thats my exact take on things today

However you noticed the difference between winning a battle and a WAR

It appears that bears giving up the fight has become the new black... :lol:

Sorry mate - this one is too early to call. This particular battle is far from over. But you are right the VI spin is strong - and your post is a great example of how successful it can be...

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But not won the war... ;)

I'm assuming that the above was tinged with sarcasm...

If not... Calm down dear, take a chill pill, grow some balls and wait this out with the rest of us..

:lol::lol::lol:

The bulls won the WAR years ago.

All you can hope for is to 'lose the WAR by LESS' by waiting for a huge crash.

You are in DENIAL if you think otherwise.

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In 15 or 20 years time when the history of this correction comes to be written, late 2004 will be seen as the peak for the UK market. Distance lends perspective.

It may well be, but terms like 'peak' is not really used by the majority of UK homeowners, so I suppose what I really meant was the point where the market 'tanked' and it hasn't in the wider market place

The predictable 'dead cat bounce' has been bouncing along for a while and the majority of the public, Daily Express headlines etc, are still convinced that the market is on an upward path

In that context the bulls have won the current battle (August 2004 - April 2006)

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The bulls won the WAR years ago.

All you can hope for is to 'lose the WAR by LESS' by waiting for a huge crash.

You are in DENIAL if you think otherwise.

So why do you post on here WAP?

If this is now all over and we're all in denial? Some kind of wannabe social worker are we now?

The desperation of your posts always makes me smile :lol::lol::lol:

Wouldn't you be more at home on mumsnet? ;)

Then both you and Bricks and Mortar can pat yourselves on the back each day saying how clever you are :lol:

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`ang on there, it was not just bulls, as you termed them, that believed it was different this time, there were/are plenty of us that were neither bearish or bullish, simply realistic.

'ang on there, I only use the term bull or bear on this site (I figured that was the protocol on this forum)

Using the spoken word, I usually use the words ‘F*cked Up’ to describe the UK property market

I think in the big scheme of things, it is very divisive and benefits very few, hence I figured my opinions would put me down as a ‘bear’ on this forum?

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So why do you post on here WAP?

If this is now all over and we're all in denial? Some kind of wannabe social worker are we now?

The desperation of your posts always makes me smile :lol::lol::lol:

Wouldn't you be more at home on mumsnet? ;)

Then both you and Bricks and Mortar can pat yourselves on the back each day saying how clever you are :lol:

Read my last post again and tell me what is desperate about it.

I think it is accurate, not desperate.

'Desperate' is when you have to come up with replies like this:

Some kind of wannabe social worker are we now?

Wouldn't you be more at home on mumsnet? ;)

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Actually rather then use the word 'battle' maybe I should just refer to the time frame from Aug 2004 - April 2006

I’m simply pointing out that it is taking longer for the wider market to realise that the market is on a downward trend – that is a FACT since Aug 2004

But reality check – the general public don’t know this yet

They should, but thanks to the Sun, Express, BBC etc, they don’t and that is a FACT

In that respect I think the ‘bulls’ have this particular battle (time frame)

PS But its far from over

Edited by 88Crash

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the bulls only have propaganda on their side now.

the economic arguments for HPI are being blown out of the water as we speak,this is a war of attrition.

anyone who expects this to be over quickly is deluded.

the VI's will spout positive sounding blurb until it becomes so blatanly obvious they are talking out of there arses that they HAVE to change their tune in order to salvage their credibility.

oh and Honesty certainly ISN'T the best policy.....take Gerald ratner,honest guy......wrecks his own business by saying most of his jewellry is "crap"

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Read my last post again and tell me what is desperate about it.

I think it is accurate, not desperate.

'Desperate' is when you have to come up with replies like this:

I have now read your post again (and laughed again...) and would politely like to remind you that you didn't answer my question.

OK - I will limit my post to just one question, and type VERY SLOWLY so you can keep up...

Why do you post on here if it's all a done deal?

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Low inflation + low interst rates + positive (ramped up) sentiment = rising prices.

Add reducing housing supply + lax lending criteria (5x Salary) + "must have" mentality = over inflated prices.

Now take rising inflation + rising interest rates + negative sentiment + increased housing supply + tightening lending criteria + hesitation = ????

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sounds to me like someone's trying to justify buying a house ;)

and f''k me.......22 User(s) are reading this topic (9 Guests and 1 Anonymous Users)

TTRTT's about to hijack this thread aswell !!

Edited by sign_of_the_times

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The bulls won the WAR years ago.

All you can hope for is to 'lose the WAR by LESS' by waiting for a huge crash.

You are in DENIAL if you think otherwise.

To clarify my position a bit more, I have been generalising using the ‘bull and bear ‘ terms

I’ll drop the bull bit and see how this comes over (not a load of bull, I hope)

The people that benefit the most from this boom are not bulls, but financial institutions/companies that have are making massive profits

It suits them to create a bullish market for obvious reasons, but they know that any market is not a one way street, it will turn, not a case of if but when

They will keep a bull market going for as long as possible and in that context they have done a very good job and won (for the time being)

Edited by 88Crash

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Low inflation + low interst rates + positive (ramped up) sentiment = rising prices.

Add reducing housing supply + lax lending criteria (5x Salary) + "must have" mentality = over inflated prices.

Now take rising inflation + rising interest rates + negative sentiment + increased housing supply + tightening lending criteria + hesitation = ????

TIMBERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR

;)

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I have now read your post again (and laughed again...) and would politely like to remind you that you didn't answer my question.

OK - I will limit my post to just one question, and type VERY SLOWLY so you can keep up...

Why do you post on here if it's all a done deal?

You actually asked me several questions, not one.

None of them seemed worthy of a reply.

However, if you insist on an answer to your question above, I post on here because I want to. Do you have a problem with that?

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Guest muttley

It's not a war, it's a market.

You can win if it goes up or if it goes down.

Bulls can make money. Bears can make money.Greedy Pigs get slaughtered.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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