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DaddyO

Guys/gals....lets Be Real

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i have been a lurker and a member of this forum for a few years. in that time i hung tenaciously to the 'precise predictions' of a HPC. At last i have come to realise that YES... there would be a correction but, nobody knows how or when. My advise to any person looking to buy a house is to not over strech themselves and under NO circumstances rely on the countless predictions on this site.

I am a bear and have loads of respect for others on this site but, there is a great degree of wishful thinking factored into most predictions. i know i'll be acused of being a troll (who cares) but, for those who doubt me i'll leave you with this thought - the reason most congregate at this forum is mainly because they want their share of the home ownership 'thing' and want it cheaply, the success of this site is testimony to the fact that there would always be a thirst for property, until that desire declines, prices would always be relatively high.

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We all know the housing market is overpriced. We all know that history suggests bubbles usually burst (always burst if you take the view that if it didn't burst then it wasn't a bubble).

BUT, maybe we will have a soft landing.

Anyone who denies the possibility that the landing will be soft is as stupid and blinkered as Tony Blair* the BTL guru who knows that property only ever goes up and is a sure-fire investment.

You may think that it is 99.9% gonna burst but if you are 100% certain, then I'm sorry, it's wishful thinking or sheer stupidity.

* Name picked at random and not meant to be representative of any lying thieving ******* living or dead

Edited by Father Fred

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i have been a lurker and a member of this forum for a few years. in that time i hung tenaciously to the 'precise predictions' of a HPC. At last i have come to realise that YES... there would be a correction but, nobody knows how or when. My advise to any person looking to buy a house is to not over strech themselves and under NO circumstances rely on the countless predictions on this site.

I am a bear and have loads of respect for others on this site but, there is a great degree of wishful thinking factored into most predictions. i know i'll be acused of being a troll (who cares) but, for those who doubt me i'll leave you with this thought - the reason most congregate at this forum is mainly because they want their share of the home ownership 'thing' and want it cheaply, the success of this site is testimony to the fact that there would always be a thirst for property, until that desire declines, prices would always be relatively high.

I recommend a book by Fred Harrison 'Boom Bust: House Prices, Banking and the Depression of 2010' a book hugely ignored by people on this website. The guy knows the housing market better than anyone based on the fact that he correctly predicted almost exactly how the market has dipped and risen in the last few years.

In his words the correction won't start until 2007/8 after a rise of 15% from when the market last settled to take its breath, the begining of the winner's curse phase, this was last year and we've had a 5% rise since then. Get ready for more depressing news as prices go up another 10%!

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Guest muttley

It is better to have a plan, even a flawed plan, than no plan at all.

I suspect that most people who read this website are much more savvy,financially, than the majority of the population.Many of them no longer feel the need to save for a rainy day, simply because they have never seen it rain.

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It has to be asked:

what kind of person "lurks" on a CHAT forum for "a couple of years" and does not contribute ANYTHING and when they do it is to say 'The crash isnt happening'?

:ph34r::ph34r::ph34r:

THE OTHERS....now back to my episode of Lost!

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F F Sake, I, and others on here, weren't expecting a downturn to have kicked in yet. So naff off.

I have no idea when the downturn will kick in, or whether prices will go up first. I've said that many times in this forum. I keep on seeing people saying that there has not been a crash in some time frame like "everybody" on HPC predicted, but I don't see these predictions being made.

Billy Shears

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My advise to any person looking to buy a house is to not over strech themselves.

As an American friend of mine from Queens says, 'like, helllooOOo?!' To buy a house is, for the vast majority of people, to overstretch themselves. Ergo your advice (note the spelling of these common words, by the way) to any person looking to buy a house is not to buy a house. Nobel prize to you for stating the painfully bloody obvious, silly billy. :P

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I have no idea when the downturn will kick in, or whether prices will go up first. I've said that many times in this forum. I keep on seeing people saying that there has not been a crash in some time frame like "everybody" on HPC predicted, but I don't see these predictions being made.

Billy Shears

OK how about next Friday?

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It is impossible for there to be a soft-landing in real terms ("real" measured against other hard, real assets like commodities and gold, not against suspect government inflation indices) because a hard-landing is already underway.

As for nominal terms, yes a soft-landing is possible if all the world's fiat money creators can act unerringly in perfect concert. Unlikely.

Durch

Whilst I accept the govts inflation measures are far from perfect, the assertion that they should be completely ignored is completely ridiculous.

I am not certain that "real" assets and "unreal(?)" ones is a relevant distinction. Gold is as real as it gets but it can fall in value. Options can be powerful investment whilst being the right to buy an intangible bit of paper that is linked to the performance of a company that has never made anything.

For the average person how property does compared to gold, shares or copper is irrelevent - they want to know how it does compared to inflation - both the RPI and wage inflation. Property does well long term, but it is due a bad run now.

Yes, there was more money to be made elsewhere, but for most people (non-sophisticated investors) it is irrelevant. It's like saying gold has been a poor investment over the last 3 years because my mates IT company has gone up 8000% in value and you could have invested in that. No you couldn't, you knew nothing about my mates company, like most people know nothing about gold investment.

For most people, buy a property (tax free and a good investment* that performs well long term, is relatively low risk, and in not correlated to shares) and hand any other spare cash to a fund manger to put it into the FTSE and some Gilts. Making any other comparison is a waste of time.

I believe a soft landing is possible, and would be defined by nominal falls of no more than 5% over 3 years, ie little more than 10% in real terms... that might feel like a crash for a few, but for most it wouldn't.

FF

* not now but over the long term.

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My advise to any person looking to buy a house is to not over strech themselves.

Gold was a good prediction as is the fall in prices.

How can a person do what you advise without a crash?

My advise is put in an offer that you feel is respectable - normally 30% off at least.

So we clearly agree DaddyO on not overstretching oneself, and for you kind advise wait for wages to inflate (not gonna happen) or prices to reduce.

So prises will reduce.

I predict a riot.

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I recommend a book by Fred Harrison 'Boom Bust: House Prices, Banking and the Depression of 2010' a book hugely ignored by people on this website.

Has it been ignored? I followed some link on here a while back and ended up listening to an interview with the author, and very interesting it was, too. Maybe it wasn't a direct link, can't remember - in any case definitely got to it from here. Anyway, nice one for mentioning it now - must order the book.

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All the main indices used by the media to track house prices, have

Only showed a slowdown in the rate of house price inflation.

But not actual price falls.

Many threads on this forum have shown (with links) some substantial drops, of some individual properties.

Myself, I am seeing individual houses approaching 2002 prices

In my area, on LR data. (not many) but more and more.

If this is not a crash, and we are still in a rising market…

How bad will it be when the main indices DO report what’s going on?

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yet another born-again

suspicious how many of them there have been recently

:lol::lol::lol:

LMAO - Everytime I see one of these posts I now check the join date. Normally betwen January and February but a couple from November last year. Someone must have been very busy setting up multiple hotmail and yahoo accounts!

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All the main indices used by the media to track house prices, have

Only showed a slowdown in the rate of house price inflation.

But not actual price falls.

Many threads on this forum have shown (with links) some substantial drops, of some individual properties.

Myself, I am seeing individual houses approaching 2002 prices

In my area, on LR data. (not many) but more and more.

If this is not a crash, and we are still in a rising market…

How bad will it be when the main indices DO report what’s going on?

Not sure about the 2002 bit but I'm seeing much the same in Oz. There are cheaper houses on offer and it's becomming more common.

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i have been a lurker and a member of this forum for a few years. in that time i hung tenaciously to the 'precise predictions' of a HPC. At last i have come to realise that YES... there would be a correction but, nobody knows how or when. My advise to any person looking to buy a house is to not over strech themselves and under NO circumstances rely on the countless predictions on this site.

I am a bear and have loads of respect for others on this site but, there is a great degree of wishful thinking factored into most predictions. i know i'll be acused of being a troll (who cares) but, for those who doubt me i'll leave you with this thought - the reason most congregate at this forum is mainly because they want their share of the home ownership 'thing' and want it cheaply, the success of this site is testimony to the fact that there would always be a thirst for property, until that desire declines, prices would always be relatively high.

I know where you are coming from slightly, i have had a bit of a crisis myself over last few months, i have had to accept that things are not quite going the way i thought they would.

That does not mean there is not huge problems building up within our property market, it just means that i am not sure how long i will have to wait for the stupid to stop being stupid, or the stupid to be finally caught out.

It is all very well being full of yourself like i have been, knowing that many people are going to smother themselves in debt , but waiting for the buggers to choke seems like it is taking forever.

Sam

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I can see your point, however I think you might have learned a lesson too and will be better for it.

It appears that you've listened to the bear arguments and gone along with them without really stepping back and thinking them over - their merits and their pitfalls (and there are LOTS). When the arguments are disputed, it feels like an anti-climax and you loose confidence in them.

I think you just need to think over YOUR reasons for thinking their will be a HPC, and keep remembering them REALISTICALLY. Even when the crash kicks off, there will be points where things might get better (aka the "false dawns") and the crash is over when it isn't.

I drifted into the bull territory about this time last year for a bit but its not a realistic stance to take, that things in the UK and the housing market are normal, nor sustainable.

The topic of HPC, and these forums are very personal, lots of opinions and emotions which will likely make your mind drift / opinions sway towards the bull territiory from time to time.

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Not sure about the 2002 bit but I'm seeing much the same in Oz. There are cheaper houses on offer and it's becomming more common.

I was talking 3 properties so far. one £15k more than 2002 price. another at £19k above 2002 price.

the third at £20k above 2002 prices. all similar properties, type, size, location.

I'm waiting for the next LR instalment (May).

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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