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Flat Bear

"no More Boom And Bust"

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"No More Boom or Bust" (it is different this time)

Why did Gordon Brown think/say this?

The 1st World war was said to be the War to end all wars. Just 21 years later the 2nd World war had started. Just saying it does not make it true.

Arguments just 2 years ago "it is different this time" such as employment is at an all time high, interest rates are at a all time low (3.5%), and there is plenty of cheap credit available, were in fact the main reasons there would be a bust, because you couldnt have a Boom and Bust without a Boom.

The facts as things stand now:

+ Prices have risen compared with wages. This is the only real neccessary fact to know.

+ Unemployment rising

+ Slump in consumer spending

+ Global interest rates rising

+ Global money supply shrinking

+ Personal debt at record levels and growing

+ Bancruptcies increasing

+ Government borrowing requirement increasing (higher taxation requirement)

+ Disposable incomes falling rapidly

+ More empty properties than 1995 and % growing

+ *Real inflation growing rapidly

(*Real inflation- The amount all goods & services are actually rising at including, housing, taxation, energy, and utility bills. This used to be called "cost of living")

Can anyone see any likely improvements in any of the above "facts" over the next 12 months? or just a slight possibility of any not getting not too much worse?

So why is anyone still even contemplating a "no more boom and bust" soft landing? ie price falls of less than 10% over a several year period.

It is not a logical or at all likely outcome

(I was going to say possible, but nothing is impossible exept for some people)

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agree except there hasn't beena slump in consumer spending - we are just not increasing spending at the rate we should be, we are spending in the wrong shops and we are spending too much over the internet

You clearley don’t own a shop then. :unsure:

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i think people say "its different this time" to convince thenselves everything is ok and to justify MEWing the hell out of their property, when deep down they know that they are in trouble if their is the slightest change in their financial position. The fact that they are saying "this time" is more or less an admission that we are in a boom and are ignoring the fact that after every boom there is a bust.

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So there is a little doubt about a slump in consumer spending? (dispite many major retailers saying its the worst for several years and only a bumper easter can save them)

No doubts about the other "facts"?

So why have several (not neccessarily market savy admittedly) people I know say they must buy now as property is on the way back up? The laws of economics has suddenly changed without reason?

Remember this bust (crash) will happen when economic conditions dictate not when any individual thinks it should happen. Unfortunately you can not will it. Some eminant "bearish" economists have thought this particular bubble could not last as long as it has.

I have been noticing some posters, over the past 6 months, saying it must happen this year (or other time constraint) WHY? :blink: They are just frutrated economic simpletons.

BUBBLES (BOOMS) RISE WAY BEYOND THEIR LOGICAL HIGHS AND LAST LONGER THAN EXPECTED, THAT IS THEIR NATURE. BUT, EQUALLY, BUSTS DROP WAY BEYOND THEIR LOGICAL LOWS AND LAST MUCH LONGER THAN EXPECTED, THAT IS THEIR NATURE.

This bust will cause much hardship and no one will gain. :(

Edited by Flat Bear

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So why is anyone still even contemplating a "no more boom and bust" soft landing? [Flat Bear]

Because they're "stupid and blinkered"?

So why have several (not neccessarily market savy admittedly) people I know say they must buy now as property is on the way back up?

Because they're "stupid and blinkered"?

Edited by Jeff Ross

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This bust will cause much hardship and no one will gain. :(

Which is of no consequence if, of course, you start off with nothing.

:)

I am NOT going to mince my words about this, there's plenty to be gained from a bust. All sorts of people of all ages, wealths, situations stand to gain from a House Price Crash. Plenty of vultures will be circling over the carcass.

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So why is anyone still even contemplating a "no more boom and bust" soft landing? [Flat Bear]

Because they're "stupid and blinkered"?

So why have several (not neccessarily market savy admittedly) people I know say they must buy now as property is on the way back up?

Because they're "stupid and blinkered"?

Yes ofcourse

But I find these people fasinating. If you discuss this situation with them, and there are lots, they seem to get this glazed look over their eyes coming back with such weak arguments it just makes you give up.

It is like the old Monty Python sketch where this British colonel does not understand the war is over.

These same people will be grumbling when we go into a slump. But there again so will I. :unsure:

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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