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Realistbear

Wales: The World's Biggest H P I Bubble

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http://icwales.icnetwork.co.uk/0100news/02...-name_page.html

Apr 14 2006

Tryst Williams, Western Mail

WELSH property prices have soared by up to 252% in 10 years - outperforming the rest of the UK housing market.
However, despite the high percentage increases, prices in Wales still haven't caught up with the south-east of England, which contains nine of the 10 most expensive counties in which to buy a home.
"These factors, combined with more affordable property than that available in the south-east, have contributed to the substantial house price gains in the last 10 years."
Nick Davies, of the National Association of Estate Agents, last night welcomed the news. "It's very heartening," said the Pontyclun-based agent, "It bears the fruit of what we've all felt in the industry for some time."

As respected EA Nick (Niki to his close friends) says, the news is both "welcome and very heartening."

Except:

But he conceded that what had been a
bumper decade for estate agents
had led to misery for those trying to get a foot on the property ladder. "As ever, there are two sides to the argument," he said. "Because it's become that much more of an expensive area it's become a problem to first-time buyers, who are being penalised by the increases. Not enough is being done by central Government to help the issue."

Blame Gordon and his "Miracle Economy?"

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However, despite the high percentage increases, prices in Wales still haven't caught up with the south-east of England, which contains nine of the 10 most expensive counties in which to buy a home.

Why would they? Are Welsh wages now on a par with the South East of England? Are Welsh people inheriting vast fortunes from their parents? This is, yet again, complete nonsense.

I've said it before and I will say it again - you get a heck of alot more for your money in the SE than you do currently in many parts of Wales. I think, truth is, that the Welsh have fallen for the bubble and what drives the bubble perhaps more than any other part of the UK.

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Why would they? Are Welsh wages now on a par with the South East of England? Are Welsh people inheriting vast fortunes from their parents? This is, yet again, complete nonsense.

I've said it before and I will say it again - you get a heck of alot more for your money in the SE than you do currently in many parts of Wales. I think, truth is, that the Welsh have fallen for the bubble and what drives the bubble perhaps more than any other part of the UK.

Two comments on this thread. Is the Welsh house price boom really the world's biggest bubble? How does it compare to Ireland?

Secondly, I see a lot of comments in the press and media that seem to suggest that house prices should be the same everywhere. For example the "bargains" available in Eastern Europe which are only bargains by comparison to UK prices. Flats in Bulgaria a "snip" at 60K UKP? I don't think so. But as long as there is an impression that these houses are bargains, and they are relatively "affordable" compared to the UK?

We keep seeing these programs about priced out UK FTBs buying in Eastern Europe to "get on the property ladder". How can this help them towards buying a UK property? It only can if the prices in Eastern Europe are going to catch up to the UK prices. And this is what I think some of these numpties believe.

Billy Shears

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Wales is as shocking as MT claims, and the further west you go, the more ridiculous it gets. Coastal areas have pulled the averages up -i.e. HPI has been even greater than 250% in places like Pembrokeshire, Lleyn and Gower (where I lived, now living in NZ). Just as in Cornwall, locals have no hope of earning enough money to buy and it is tough to rent where BTL landlords kick you out every summer for the lucrative short tourist season. Other houses are vacant for most of the year on the off-chance that the new owners may pop down from Surrey for a cosy winter weekend. Some are home to retirement couples from the SE, but I have no axe to grind with these - they have as much right to live there as anyone does; it's just a pity they could afford to pay so much.

Median house prices in SA3 (Mumbles and Gower) are £325,000 (mean is higher) , salaries in Swansea, the regional town, are pathetic by UK standards - I recall seeing £12K not long ago. Whatever it is, the affordability ratio must surely compare with Dublin because wages in Dublin are so much higher. I am certain that migrants buying along the coast in Wales have pushed up the prices at the top, which has in turn dragged up the rest as locals are 1) desensitised to big numbers, 2) offered cheap credit 3)fed endless HPI propaganda via the media 4)desperate to believe in perpetual HPI because there was never any other way they were going to get rich in West Wales.

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Wales is as shocking as MT claims, and the further west you go, the more ridiculous it gets. Coastal areas have pulled the averages up -i.e. HPI has been even greater than 250% in places like Pembrokeshire, Lleyn and Gower (where I lived, now living in NZ). Just as in Cornwall, locals have no hope of earning enough money to buy and it is tough to rent where BTL landlords kick you out every summer for the lucrative short tourist season. Other houses are vacant for most of the year on the off-chance that the new owners may pop down from Surrey for a cosy winter weekend. Some are home to retirement couples from the SE, but I have no axe to grind with these - they have as much right to live there as anyone does; it's just a pity they could afford to pay so much.

Median house prices in SA3 (Mumbles and Gower) are £325,000 (mean is higher) , salaries in Swansea, the regional town, are pathetic by UK standards - I recall seeing £12K not long ago. Whatever it is, the affordability ratio must surely compare with Dublin because wages in Dublin are so much higher. I am certain that migrants buying along the coast in Wales have pushed up the prices at the top, which has in turn dragged up the rest as locals are 1) desensitised to big numbers, 2) offered cheap credit 3)fed endless HPI propaganda via the media 4)desperate to believe in perpetual HPI because there was never any other way they were going to get rich in West Wales.

Some EAs are calling West Wales the new Hong Kong with investment and house prices to go along with it.... :blink: A lot of EAs promoted Port Talbot and the coast long there as the "British Riviera" which I suspect got a lot of people in a frenzy to get in before the Germans bought holiday homes in the sun in that location.

The new money isn't really interested in the locals and their problems buying homes as the new money from the outside is much more welcome. Another one of the nasty sides to Gordon's "Miracle Economy?"

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Some EAs are calling West Wales the new Hong Kong with investment and house prices to go along with it.... :blink: A lot of EAs promoted Port Talbot and the coast long there as the "British Riviera" which I suspect got a lot of people in a frenzy to get in before the Germans bought holiday homes in the sun in that location.

The new money isn't really interested in the locals and their problems buying homes as the new money from the outside is much more welcome. Another one of the nasty sides to Gordon's "Miracle Economy?"

Port Talbot :D

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I spotted that in the Western Mail, this report was accompanied by the headline:

House prices double in a decade

then,

WELSH property prices have soared by up to 252% in 10 years - outperforming the rest of the UK housing market.

and further down, an example:

Among the hotspots identified by the survey was Anglesey. Its average house price has risen 252%, from £44,998 to £158,527 - the second largest percentage rise across the whole of the UK.

Maybe having a phd in physics means that I can no longer do simple maths :blink: , but I would have said that doubling is an increase of 100%. A rise of 252%, as confirmed by the example, means that they are closer to doubling twice.

Accurate headlines like:

Welsh houses cost 3.5 times more than they did a decade ago

or

House prices in Wales double every 6 years

are so sensational that they risk provoking a healthy dose of bubble realism, so instead we were fed a watered down version. The only times newspapers ever down-play facts are when a VI's are at work.

The sad thing is that posters on this forum have swallowed these headlines and said, "that's all fine, because my pay has also doubled in the last 10 years, and now I have a deposit too, so I'm better off". Sad, because, you guys should know better....reaches for calculator with a natural log button....

Unless your pay has scaled by a factor of 3.5, i.e. 12.5% year on year, you are worse off. . In Anglesey, Pembrokeshire, Gower, Cornwall and the rest..I doubt if pay increases have been better than 4%. Compounded, over 10 years this would only have supported a 48% increase, less than one fifth of the total. 95% of locals in these areas are now utterly priced out, regardless of what the media tell them, or what banks are prepared to lend them.

It may as well say that If you buy in now, you are just a mug who bought in 10 years too late - the mark for somebody elses con.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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