Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
karhu

Sorry To Tell You All This News ... Almost Certain

Recommended Posts

The economy is recovering!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4905384.stm

UK economy 'shows slight pick-up'

The UK's manufacturing and service sectors are showing signs of recovery but the upturn remains fragile, says the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC).

"There have been improvements... but confidence is not great," the BCC said in its latest quarterly survey.

The BCC said the recovery in the UK economy must also be backed by moves to support employment and boost exports.

The rise in unemployment announced this week, with the jobless figure now up to 1.56 million, also concerns the BCC.

'Tentative' recovery

"The recent progress shown by our quarterly survey is from a low base, and follows a marked deterioration in the first three quarters of 2005," said BCC director general David Frost.

The BCC are no longer calling for a cut in short term rates:

And he urged the Bank of England's monetary policy committee (MPC) to maintain a flexible stance on interest rates.

"We are not unhappy with the MPC's decision earlier this month to leave rates unchanged, but we would expect the MPC to react quickly if economic circumstances worsen," he said.

"The bank must show a flexible attitude and follow the market."

The market is pricing in a >90% chance of a rate rise in December. Hold onto your hats...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The economy is recovering!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4905384.stm

The BCC are no longer calling for a cut in short term rates:

The market is pricing in a >90% chance of a rate rise in December. Hold onto your hats...

This is based purely on UK economy projections; so could those rises come sooner if/when global rates push further upwards and the bombs start falling in Iran..?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is based purely on UK economy projections; so could those rises come sooner if/when global rates push further upwards and the bombs start falling in Iran..?

Oh yes. The next rate rise now is sure to be up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Expect to see some credit tightening start now; Japan won't help this situation. I imagine mortgage rate fixes will start going up very soon, making more people opt for variable rate interest only type mortgages as they will be the only thing left that is marginally affordable. With consumers already hurting due to gas/electric and water, HPC is now a done deal. I can't believe we've gone from sensible mortgages to the edge of affordibilty on creative lending before we get to HPC. Who would have believed that 5 years ago :ph34r: .

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The economy is recovering!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4905384.stm

The BCC are no longer calling for a cut in short term rates:

The market is pricing in a >90% chance of a rate rise in December. Hold onto your hats...

Ooh good. So that means that more people are in employment and have more money to spend on houses which means that prices will go up again.

"The economy's recovering"!!!!!!!!!

Er, am I living on another planet. What parts are NOT getting *worse*?

Ooh good. That means that less people will be in employment and will have less money to spend on consumer good so interest rate pressure will be off so mortage rate costs will not increase so people can afford to spend more on houses and so prices will go up again

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ooh good. So that means that more people are in employment and have more money to spend on houses which means that prices will go up again.

Ooh good. That means that less people will be in employment and will have less money to spend on consumer good so interest rate pressure will be off so mortage rate costs will not increase so people can afford to spend more on houses and so prices will go up again

Or maybe as companies are laying off people they are getting rid of the drift wood that accumulates in ealier part of the economic cycle.

Its quite funny that we talk about it all to such great lengths, its inevitable.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A 0.25% cut seemed to be all that prevented a crash last year...

It's not so much the amount, it's the direction and the expectation of future changes. Most people in the UK now seem to believe that rates are going to go down even while the rest of the world is increasing: a single increase would completely shatter that delusion.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Or maybe as companies are laying off people they are getting rid of the drift wood that accumulates in ealier part of the economic cycle.

Its quite funny that we talk about it all to such great lengths, its inevitable.

Aah... structural unemployment. Not a lot you can to make some people employable, except possibly for use as ballast.

Someone should tell the media this re the shock horror stories surrounding redundancies in the NHS. Perhaps some doctors and nurses and other employees are... incopetent! :o

No.. that can't be possible. All 1.3 million of them are fantastic.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Whooopy doo. A .25% increase isnt going to make a lorra difference is it

Especially in 8 months time.

It certainly made a difference when it was cut. It's not the move though...its the confidence.

Edited by eurows

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Once the tightening starts it seems to keep going. The markets are seeing two 25BP rises in short term rates at the moment. One at the end of the year and one early next year.

And as we've been discussing on another thread long term interest rates are going up, making mortgages more expensive from TODAY. That seems set to continue.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And if there is a 0.25% hike before the end of the year (that soon eh?) - it will be followed by cuts. The economy is in a terrible state and will need stimulating by lower interest rates soon.

That is why your precious HPC will not happen - at least not in the next few years. It will take either a booming economy to raise IRs to bring a crash - or a serious recession. What we have is a lame duck economy that will limp along for years. And, as long as it is limping, money will pile into property and inflate it further.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And if there is a 0.25% hike before the end of the year (that soon eh?) - it will be followed by cuts. The economy is in a terrible state and will need stimulating by lower interest rates soon.

That is why your precious HPC will not happen - at least not in the next few years. It will take either a booming economy to raise IRs to bring a crash - or a serious recession. What we have is a lame duck economy that will limp along for years. And, as long as it is limping, money will pile into property and inflate it further.

mmmm. Never seen a Latin American economy before? Limping along but full of inflation. Interest rates can only be kept low for a short period of time afterwhich something has to break.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest The_Oldie

And if there is a 0.25% hike before the end of the year (that soon eh?) - it will be followed by cuts. The economy is in a terrible state and will need stimulating by lower interest rates soon.

That is why your precious HPC will not happen - at least not in the next few years. It will take either a booming economy to raise IRs to bring a crash - or a serious recession. What we have is a lame duck economy that will limp along for years. And, as long as it is limping, money will pile into property and inflate it further.

Like it did in Japan? Property price crash and low interest rates.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And if there is a 0.25% hike before the end of the year (that soon eh?) - it will be followed by cuts. The economy is in a terrible state and will need stimulating by lower interest rates soon.

That is why your precious HPC will not happen - at least not in the next few years. It will take either a booming economy to raise IRs to bring a crash - or a serious recession. What we have is a lame duck economy that will limp along for years. And, as long as it is limping, money will pile into property and inflate it further.

total bollux :rolleyes:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
And if there is a 0.25% hike before the end of the year (that soon eh?) - it will be followed by cuts.

Interest rates are still way below historically normal levels for the last few decades, the rest of the world is raising them, inflation is way up even if the official fake figures are still 'low', and you think the BoE will be able to cut rates just because a few property speculators go bust?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think we've gotten used to low interest rates. They've been around for so "long" that we've almost started to think that they're the norm. We have short or no memories :lol::lol::lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.