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apom

I Called The Peak In Late 2004

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For that is when the market failed.

Since then all we have is a battle of will's as the lenders try to draw the most from the market until the collapse is public knowledge.

Houses have sold for more then in 2004 since then.

some have sold for less..

But the engine broke back in late 2004

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I agree entirely.

Since I STRd in 2004 I have monitored house prices like a hawk and despite the twisted data presented by the VIs I remain convinced that achieved prices have fallen, certainly in my area (Home County north of London).

This finding is entirely consistent with this report http://www.home.co.uk/asking_price_index/ which I am surprised has not garnered more attention on this forum since it was posted earlier today. The first truly 'independent' overview perhaps, free from VI manipulation?

I might also add that I have first hand experience of the downturn in the market. My parents have been trying for a year to sell their house; a desirable property in a very popular village. Placed on the market in 2005 at a price that identical houses had sold for in 2004 it remains unsold - total viewings five. My own property, sold in 2004, was resold recently for 7% less than I received; add two years inflation and that sounds like a real drop of around 12%.

Houses 'flying off the shelves?'- only in La La Land inhabited by EAs, surveyors, lenders and all the other 'make-works' who live off the back of honest endeavour.

Edited by Red Baron

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For that is when the market failed.

Since then all we have is a battle of will's as the lenders try to draw the most from the market until the collapse is public knowledge.

Houses have sold for more then in 2004 since then.

some have sold for less..

But the engine broke back in late 2004

I thnk it was june 05 here.

But absolutly, the engine has broken.

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This finding is entirely consistent with this report http://www.home.co.uk/asking_price_index/ which I am surprised has not garnered more attention on this forum since it was posted earlier today. The first truly 'independent' overview perhaps, free from VI manipulation?

http://firstrung.co.uk/articles.asp?pageid...articlekey=1724

I think they have suffered from the glut of available house price analysis out there. How many different sources is that, 13? Anyhow that combined with a near zero pr push (other than a come and get it if you want it press release) is a pretty poor effort for a survey that does, as you say, have a point of difference and credibility.

Edited by Converted Lurker

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For that is when the market failed.

Since then all we have is a battle of will's as the lenders try to draw the most from the market until the collapse is public knowledge.

Houses have sold for more then in 2004 since then.

some have sold for less..

But the engine broke back in late 2004

Agreed.

Where I am in Kent property has been very slow in selling largely due to sellers being unable/unwilling to negotiate on the asking price - house prices only go up!

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Spotting the peak is one thing but the question is how long will it be until we start seeing significant falls. It hasnt started yet, indeed we have a spring bounce.

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Maybe down South ...... but up North where my parents live, things are still selling and at ever increasing prices .....

My dads house was worth 30K back in 2001 ..... last month his neighbour a few doors down sold his house which is an exact copy of my dads semi, for 180K .....

Does this mean that once the HPC gets going, prices up north will nose dive by about a two thirds ...... or does it mean that finally the North/South divide has closed ??

Naturally my old man reckons the latter !!

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Guest
or does it mean that finally the North/South divide has closed ??

Only if the economy of the North is on par with the economy of the South East.

I'll let you decide on that one.

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Prices hit a peak in South West Cornwall at the end of Q1 (March) 2005 - since then little has sold most at a low price

There has been a small rise in the number of expensive detached at the beginning of this year but nothing major

Summary - only reasonable priced properties are selling, sold subject to contact signs are posted for weeks & weeks and subject to weak chains with "unexpectidly re-available" on some - there are a number of properties that have been on the market for 2 years with little or no reduction in price and sellers "holding out" because the EA's have told them the market is turning

Crash has started - can someone tell everybody!

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Guest Winners and Losers

I'm not sure about this. I know someone who had an offer for 100k in late 2004, now selling for 125k.

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I'm not sure about this. I know someone who had an offer for 100k in late 2004, now selling for 125k.

W&L

In Cornwall the cheaper properties still have the propensity to rise (people have to live somewhere)

It's the expensive ones people can't afford

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Yep - flat as a pancake in S Yorks / Peak District since Q4 04. However, time taken to sell has come down a lot since Jan with those people who sat on their original (flat) asking prices for months finally transacting.

Edited by aussieboy

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" at ever increasing prices "

FROM that phrase, I know it is a lie

I disagree. My in-laws live in Lancashire and prices are still rocketing in their area. However, they didn't start to do this until about 18 months or so ago. It must surely be one of the last areas in the UK to boom. And given that wages haven't benefited from the same increase, I'm assuming that the crash, when it arrives, will be very hard and fast up there.

Edited by libitina

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When the market turns in the NE, NW and Scotland and it will,

as sure as God made little apples, anyone that has paid a silly price

Will see substantial drops. For the first time in history prices in northern areas

not traditionally hot, expensive areas such as Harrogate, York and the Wirral,

are the same as the south? This is because many areas in the south have had no increase in prices for a couple of years whilst prices in the north continued to rise.

“But it’s different this time”. It certainly is. Many estate agents in the north (that have been in the business for more than 10 minutes) when you look them in the eye and have a grown up conversation, admit it’s totally unsustainable.

Dose anyone have an intellectually rigorous argument to say this time the North

Will not see drops of circa 35%+.

London does not lead the UK property market. It’s the most expensive UK market due to being a leading International city with lots of well paid jobs. It is, as the price increases in the north over the last 2 years have shown (whilst SE stagnated) uncoupled itself. The UK property market as a single entity lead by London is a broken model, be warned by that.

London and the south crashed ahead of the north last time because the prices were hugely inflated relative to the north. That why when you look at the stats for last time UK average prices fell about 20%, 40% in the south, 10 to 15% in the north.

This time the north has piled on more HPI than last time. This time there doesn’t need to be a London crash to trigger one in the inflated northern markets.

Northern bulls, apart from naïve hope over the law of market forces beyond any of our control, what going to stop the overstretched northern house prices falling and falling big time?

Pablo Silver or Lead

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A peak in late 2004 might be true if you average the national picture.

However as we all know national average is meaningless when discussing property.

The peak depends on property type and location. eg London peaked as early as 2002 in some parts, 2003 in others and 2004 in the more outlying suburbs.

Inner city executive new build flats have peaked and will crash - supply and demand (demand was always questionable and IMO it was clearly a bubble). Some cities will crash sooner some towns will crash greater.

Family houses in decent school catchment areas are a completely different kettle of fish. IMO these will only crash if interest rates and unemployment rise significantly. Both are, officially at least, at very low historical levels.

So we can all be right and we can all be wrong depending on which part of the country we discuss and what type of property we are buying / selling.

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As I keep saying there is a regional component to all of this. The market here in Scotland has neither peaked or crashed. All the signs are for continuous upward movement. The latest quarterly stats for this area show an annual +13.86% average increase compared with the same period a year ago.

I have been trying unsuccessfully to get back into the market for months.

There is a general shortage of property. Most properties are selling within 2-3 weeks, and on average about 20% above the o/o price. The only properties that are sticking are those in the categories of grossly inflated builder/developer prices, and totally unrealistic prices on private properties.

So when those of you who say the market is still rising up north (England), even further north is in the same boat. Also if northern England is not going static or tending towards decline, how long are the so called negative ripples going to take to reach up here?

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2 up, 2 down terraced houses where going for between £30k and £45k 18 months ago. They're now between £75k and £85k.

Edited by libitina

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" at ever increasing prices "

FROM that phrase, I know it is a lie

Dude !! You calling me a liar ??

If we are gonna personally insult each other, maybe we should start another thread or maybe even another forum :D

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Peak in 2004?

So why are prices nationwide still rising?

Accelerated price growth may have ended in 2004, but what we are seeing now is nice steady growth, how it should be.

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For that is when the market failed.

Since then all we have is a battle of will's as the lenders try to draw the most from the market until the collapse is public knowledge.

Houses have sold for more then in 2004 since then.

some have sold for less..

But the engine broke back in late 2004

And why should facts shake your conviction? All the major indices showed HPI at or above inflation during 2005. 2004 marked a sharp slow-down in growth; there is no way on earth you can call it a peak.

Seriously, doesn't the fact that houses are now a little bit more expensive than in 2004 make you think?

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Guest Winners and Losers

The peak in house prices hasn't been reached yet. House prices will peak in 2008.

As this is only your first post (ahem) I'll be gentle. If you are going to make sweeping statements as above, please back it up with some links, graphs, articles, evidence, ANYTHING. Get the gist?

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  • 333 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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