Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

"house Prices Show No Sign Of Recovery"


Recommended Posts

0
HOLA441
  • Replies 56
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

1
HOLA442

:angry: :angry:

I bit the bullet, so to speak, and called a few agents about properties I have been watching. Leeds, Liverpool, and London. All have indeed sold, after only a few weeks on the market. Not particularly cheap or good value or in good locations. One particular property I was told was 'sold' - they do not put 'under offer' on the internet (just sold), I asked if it achieved near the asking price 'nice try said the pr*ck EA', who then said it is against the law for him to tell me somebody elses offer, I said 'it has been sold, it is not under offer'. Not that I am necessarily right though. Another one I was told went for near to asking price. I tell ya what, it beats me. Either people are getting themselves into huge amounts of debt or the market is indeed healthy?

WAL nearly all the reports show NW as the biggest hikes. Its mainly Manchester but partly Liverpool. The main things selling in Liverpool are the cheap houses in Kensington/Bootle etc or CIty Flats - The other ones are the nice areas like Roby/Mossley Hill/Allerton. All in all (I live in Aigburth a good area) and they are not selling. We had 4 for sale last year 2 withdrawn, 1 sold for asking price of 200K (STILL NOT ON LR) and another one for 150K. Of the 2 that were withdrawn (at 225K) 1 is back on the market at £200K and is still FOR SALE (About 5 weeks).

Around me there are 2 on a busy road, one fror 235K (Been on about 1 year with about 4 agents - WONT LOWER PRICE) and one for "230 (pisses on the other one in every way). Still not selling.

I am happy that the prices here are silly at the moment as I believe that come 2008 (City of Vultures) the market will tank BIG TIME. I expect the crash to get momentum NOW!!! And to carry on in 2008 to new lows.

Hold fire - the North west will drop because the LOCAL ECONOMY. IE MINUS INVESTORS cannot support these prices.

TB

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2
HOLA443

Bump:

I’ve just thought of a new index, one that monitors possibly

The smallest sample of properties ever, with the greatest accuracy.

I call it; ‘same house for sale again! ’ index.

It would monitor, asking price, selling price, how long on the market,

How many failed sales, what improvements were made to the property.

Advantage: No need for using complicating statistics, average,

mean, medium, seasonally adjusted, Mix-adjusted.

Disadvantages: very low number sample in Bear market.

Bull market would show ‘flipping’ activity.

Divorce settlements, Money laundering activity would distort figures.

Conclusion: probably won’t work.

What do you think?

That sounds like an RSR index and they work very well. See: http://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_...epeat_sales.htm

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3
HOLA444
4
HOLA445

BUMP:

Looks like StatsMan is on holiday...but I'd like to continue this discussion.

QUOTE(Red Baron @ Apr 13 2006, 05:29 PM)

Statsman - does Calnea Analytics have a view on the future of the property market that it is prepared to share with this Forum?

According to the Home.co.uk statement "the much touted "soft landing" has yet to be found. " [And I guess it may not be 'soft']

QUOTE(burnt before @ Apr 13 2006, 06:11 PM)

StatsMan:

Is there any chance of your data, presented in graph form, plotted

Next to the other indices?

This would be nice to see but I guess it would only be easily comparable to the Rightmove index. The others are are several months behind this one (and measure different data).

QUOTE(spline @ Apr 14 2006, 12:42 PM)

Hi Statsman – Welcome to the site. I was sort of hoping that someone that might tell us why the asking price index is very high relative to the usual suspects, and why it’s falling when everything else appears to be rising. So the methodology was the starting point.

I suspect other indices like Nationwide and Halifax contain properties sold by auction and private agreement and some indices may make somewhat artificial price adjustments to 'fit with the norm'. Also perhaps mortgages tend to be taken out on cheaper properties, but I may be wrong.

Mortgage approval data and sale price data may also be skewed by the growing practice (especially amongst first time buyers) of 'seller pays deposit'. e.g. 10% is added to the original asking price (and the valuation) which is then paid back to the buyer to constitute their deposit. A very shady practice indeed. Non open market valuations such as Remortgaging must also affect the lenders indices. Remortgaging is currently at an all time high.

As its the open market that shapes opinions on house prices, the new Home.co.uk asking price index seems to have a lot going for it. I found more on the methodology here: http://www.calnea.com/asking-price-index/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5
HOLA446

That sounds like an RSR index and they work very well. See: http://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_...epeat_sales.htm

Perfect example - I sold my "luxury apartment " in 2004 for exactly what I paid for it (and the selling price was £4k less than asking). The current owner is now selling and his asking price is £1k less than my initial asking. The sale to sale time is almost exactly 2 years so not much inflation there for the property bulls.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6
HOLA447

Perfect example - I sold my "luxury apartment " in 2004 for exactly what I paid for it (and the selling price was £4k less than asking). The current owner is now selling and his asking price is £1k less than my initial asking. The sale to sale time is almost exactly 2 years so not much inflation there for the property bulls.

Or [and apologies for being blunt] perhaps you bought at too high a price. And you found someone else who made the same mistake.

I give you luxury apartments in sunny Bolton - sold in 2001 for £150Kish, resale is now mid £240Ks - not massive returns relative to buying foru £50K houses at the same time, but good enough.

http://www.nethouseprices.com/index.php?co...ge=&house_type=

[these are actually worth the money in my book - unlike almost all of the others - I got as far as an accepted offer on one in 2000 but was gazumped by a grand and I could not afford the difference then - 1,000 sq foot, separate garage, private road, secure, lifts, country park views - if and when I go home, I will probably buy one as a pied a terre [awful EA phrase] for visiting my parents]

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.




×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information