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Tester

"house Prices Show No Sign Of Recovery"

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Current media speculation of a ‘mini boom’ in the UK Housing Market is not borne

out by the figures presented. Only four regions, (North West, North East, Midlands

and Wales) have managed to hold onto the gains made in the 2003/4 boom in

residential property prices. The 12 month market trend in these stronger performing

regions is one of price stagnation. By contrast the South, South West, East and

South East (Home Counties) regional indices show weaker markets, the latter being

the worst performer suffering notable successive falls.

See Report Released 12 April 06

Asking Prices April 06 vs May 04

North West £182,182 5.9%

Wales £182,482 5.0%

North East £166,984 2.9%

Midlands £192,511 0.8%

London £331,560 -3.2%

South £258,375 -5.2%

East £212,970 -5.4%

South West £240,517 -6.1%

Home Counties £276,552 -7.8%

Further in-depth analysis highlights some stark regional differences across England and Wales. Southern England shows a weaker market with asking prices in the South East (Home Counties) suffering near continuous falls over the last 18 months. By contrast, the regional indices for the North of England and Wales show stronger markets that have held onto the gains from the 2003/4 property boom.

This picture is at variance with the more up-beat opinions promulgated by most of the major market commentators, many of whom have large vested interests in the UK property market. On the other hand, adherents to economic theory such as The Economist may no longer be baffled as to why their expert predictions of price falls have failed to materialise.

The independent analysis provided by the Home.co.uk Asking Price Index has been heralded as a welcome addition to an area dominated by hype and distortion. Selwyn Lim, spokesman for Calnea Analytics, points out, "The £3 trillion property market is a key component of the overall UK economy and hence analysis and comment deserves the utmost diligence and independence."

Indeed, it's a sobering thought that, whilst the cost of housing is the single most important factor affecting the economic prosperity of the majority of UK residents, there has been almost no independent analysis of UK house prices and, until now, none for asking prices. Greater market transparency will serve to better inform the investor and further enable Government and the Bank of England to eliminate the 'boom-bust' cycle.

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Guest Winners and Losers

:angry: :angry:

I bit the bullet, so to speak, and called a few agents about properties I have been watching. Leeds, Liverpool, and London. All have indeed sold, after only a few weeks on the market. Not particularly cheap or good value or in good locations. One particular property I was told was 'sold' - they do not put 'under offer' on the internet (just sold), I asked if it achieved near the asking price 'nice try said the pr*ck EA', who then said it is against the law for him to tell me somebody elses offer, I said 'it has been sold, it is not under offer'. Not that I am necessarily right though. Another one I was told went for near to asking price. I tell ya what, it beats me. Either people are getting themselves into huge amounts of debt or the market is indeed healthy?

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I think we should somehow promote this website . At last it seems that you have found a company that "appears" totally unbiased . I will have a few beers tonight after seeing the figures for the South East

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"who then said it is against the law for him to tell me somebody elses offer"

What a load of old cobblers! It may be unethical (If EA's are aware of the word) but surely it's not against the law?

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"who then said it is against the law for him to tell me somebody elses offer"

What a load of old cobblers! It may be unethical (If EA's are aware of the word) but surely it's not against the law?

Since when have Estate agents been concerned about he law you just have to look at the way Foxtons were behaving the other night.

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:angry: :angry:

I bit the bullet, so to speak, and called a few agents about properties I have been watching. Leeds, Liverpool, and London. All have indeed sold, after only a few weeks on the market. Not particularly cheap or good value or in good locations. One particular property I was told was 'sold' - they do not put 'under offer' on the internet (just sold), I asked if it achieved near the asking price 'nice try said the pr*ck EA', who then said it is against the law for him to tell me somebody elses offer, I said 'it has been sold, it is not under offer'. Not that I am necessarily right though. Another one I was told went for near to asking price. I tell ya what, it beats me. Either people are getting themselves into huge amounts of debt or the market is indeed healthy?

wow! that was quick! Are you sure you didn't have that post prepared?

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wow! that was quick! Are you sure you didn't have that post prepared?

Well these are asking prices. So who really cares what happens with them. Though if they're dropping, the question that immediately comes to mind is "isn't it spring?"

Billy Shears

:angry: :angry:

I bit the bullet, so to speak, and called a few agents about properties I have been watching. Leeds, Liverpool, and London. All have indeed sold, after only a few weeks on the market. Not particularly cheap or good value or in good locations. One particular property I was told was 'sold' - they do not put 'under offer' on the internet (just sold), I asked if it achieved near the asking price 'nice try said the pr*ck EA', who then said it is against the law for him to tell me somebody elses offer, I said 'it has been sold, it is not under offer'. Not that I am necessarily right though. Another one I was told went for near to asking price. I tell ya what, it beats me. Either people are getting themselves into huge amounts of debt or the market is indeed healthy?

But you can't have a house price crash without sales. A number of houses around me suddenly sold after being on the market for a while. If these all sold for high asking prices, then that's bad from my POV. But if these houses sold at prices a percent or so less than similar houses were three months ago, then the sales are a good thing from my POV as they establish a new lower price level for my area.

Billy Shears

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wow! that was quick! Are you sure you didn't have that post prepared?

To get W&L off the hook: I did the original post around midday then edited it to add the last quote at 13:10.

Edited by Tester

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wow! that was quick! Are you sure you didn't have that post prepared?

Always prepared, in my head. :unsure:

"who then said it is against the law for him to tell me somebody elses offer"

What a load of old cobblers! It may be unethical (If EA's are aware of the word) but surely it's not against the law?

Well, if someone can confirm I'll be happy to give him a call and set him straight. :)

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:angry: :angry:

I bit the bullet, so to speak, and called a few agents about properties I have been watching. Leeds, Liverpool, and London. All have indeed sold, after only a few weeks on the market. Not particularly cheap or good value or in good locations. One particular property I was told was 'sold' - they do not put 'under offer' on the internet (just sold), I asked if it achieved near the asking price 'nice try said the pr*ck EA', who then said it is against the law for him to tell me somebody elses offer, I said 'it has been sold, it is not under offer'. Not that I am necessarily right though. Another one I was told went for near to asking price. I tell ya what, it beats me. Either people are getting themselves into huge amounts of debt or the market is indeed healthy?

If you've sold high, you can buy high simple really, isn't it? It's those who've str'd too early or ftb's who are struggling. Like us, for example.

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If you've sold high, you can buy high simple really, isn't it? It's those who've str'd too early or ftb's who are struggling. Like us, for example.

Well, kind of. Say you sell your 2 bedroom flat for 250k. To buy another flat the same will cost you 250k. To buy another 2 bed flat in a better area or a 3 bed flat in your same area will cost you 300k. Let's say you orginally bought for 150k. Your mortgage is 140k. You take your 100k equity + 140k mortgage = 240k. You borrow an extra 60k to buy the 3 bedder for 300k. You also MEW 20k to but an audi TT and a plasma screen. Now you have a mortgage (essentially) of 220k. However, in the last five years since you bought that bargain studio flat in Peckham your salary has only gone up by 5k. But never mind, because property prices always rise and in 12 mths your 3 bedder will be worth 350k, easily covering the cost of the TT and the TV. :blink:

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I like this quote from the report:

Current media speculation of a ‘mini boom’ in the UK Housing Market is not borne

out by the figures presented. Only four regions, (North West, North East, Midlands

and Wales) have managed to hold onto the gains made in the 2003/4 boom in

residential property prices. The 12 month market trend in these stronger performing

regions is one of price stagnation. By contrast the South, South West, East and

South East (Home Counties) regional indices show weaker markets, the latter being

the worst performer suffering notable successive falls.

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I too am looking to the Home Counties, so great to hear!

Can anyone dispute the accuracy of this report?

Why do posts like this drop so quickly around here, almost missed it?!

.

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Tester:

An excellent find and an interesting contrast with Rightmove's approach and tone, not forgetting both Rightmove and Home.co.uk both deal with asking prices.

Given its relevance to Rightmove I've posted the link and this thread on the Rightmove thread

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Have the media reported the appearance of a new housing index?

This represents a rather different view of the market, which I would expect them to cover

I haven't heard anything about it in the media.

Anyway, the site *appears* to be kosher, I did a few searches and it picked up most of the stuff for sale in my area.

The methodology for the asking price index is described here (it's quite technical) but it does appear to be mix adjusted. Better minds than mine will be required to put it into context with the other indices, however.

http://www.calnea.com/AskingPriceIndex/Mix...Methodology.pdf

SpoonUnit

Edited by SpoonUnit

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Have the media reported the appearance of a new housing index?

This represents a rather different view of the market, which I would expect them to cover

I sent home.co.uk an email asking about their coverage. They replied that they are "trying to grab the BBC's interest".

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:angry: :angry:

I bit the bullet, so to speak, and called a few agents about properties I have been watching. Leeds, Liverpool, and London. All have indeed sold, after only a few weeks on the market. Not particularly cheap or good value or in good locations. One particular property I was told was 'sold' - they do not put 'under offer' on the internet (just sold), I asked if it achieved near the asking price 'nice try said the pr*ck EA', who then said it is against the law for him to tell me somebody elses offer, I said 'it has been sold, it is not under offer'. Not that I am necessarily right though. Another one I was told went for near to asking price. I tell ya what, it beats me. Either people are getting themselves into huge amounts of debt or the market is indeed healthy?

You are going dangerously close to letting what is happening in the real world influence your views - you are close to crossing the party line.

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You are going dangerously close to letting what is happening in the real world influence your views - you are close to crossing the party line.

What does that mean? My IQ is only 118.

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The methodology for the asking price index is described here (it's quite technical) but it does appear to be mix adjusted.

I had quick look at their methodology – and despite the hype about the analytical precision this index actually looks rather pants (marketing device to promote the site?) – their “mix-adjustment” is equivalent to weighted averaging over house types, i.e. detached, terrace, and so on, and aggregating over whole regions. In other words, pretty much *zero* mix-adjustment. Then they spin the idea of correcting for the skewness of the distribution, but all they do is exclude houses above and below an arbitrary threshold. It’s a good start, and I like the idea of a house sale aggregating site :), but they have to try a lot harder with the methodology to get anything comparable to the other indices.

Edited by spline

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You are going dangerously close to letting what is happening in the real world influence your views - you are close to crossing the party line.

Yes, get over to housepriceambiguity.co.uk with you, this is no place to gather bearish news, move along :lol:

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Somewhere on the new masters of this site's web site (fubra's ourproperty copy of nethouseprices) there is an interesting figure. It says something like 'we've added the most recent quarter's figures released by the Land Registry' (in February I think it said). The total was about 156,000. If this is a quarter - that makes a year 624,000. Every sale of property must be registered with the Land Registry (assuming the new owner wants title) so this would be about half previous year's total. If this is true, you guys should surely be latching on to this.

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Somewhere on the new masters of this site's web site (fubra's ourproperty copy of nethouseprices) there is an interesting figure. It says something like 'we've added the most recent quarter's figures released by the Land Registry' (in February I think it said). The total was about 156,000. If this is a quarter - that makes a year 624,000. Every sale of property must be registered with the Land Registry (assuming the new owner wants title) so this would be about half previous year's total. If this is true, you guys should surely be latching on to this.

Seasonal variation, it`ll refer to the worst quarter, 4th 2005 ;) That`s assuming ouproperty are corrrect :D

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Seasonal variation, it`ll refer to the worst quarter, 4th 2005 ;) That`s assuming ouproperty are corrrect :D

The seasonal variation is something of a myth. If you have a good look at the LR figures you do get a small spike in April/May but the rest of the year is pretty consistent.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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