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Unemployment Up Again

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http://www.advfn.com/news_UK-unemployment-...p_15001361.html

"The office for National Statistics said the claimant count in March jumped

by 12,600 from February to 937,600, its highest level since July 2003. After a

sharp jump in February, analysts had expected a much more modest increase of

around 7,000.

Worsening the picture was an unexpected sharp upward revision to February's

monthly claimant count increase to 19,900 from the previous estimate of a 14,600

rise. This marks the biggest monthly gain since December 1992 when there was a

rise of over 71,000, NS said."

Another nail in the coffin!

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http://www.statistics.gov.uk/CCI/nugget.asp?ID=12

The unemployment rate was 5.1 per cent, up 0.1 over the quarter and up 0.4 over the year. The number of unemployed people increased by 30,000 over the quarter and by 120,000 over the year, to reach 1.56 million. The quarterly increase in unemployment was due to more unemployed women.

The claimant count was 937,600 in March 2006, up 12,600 on the previous month and up 106,200 on the year.

And plenty more have been announced this year who will join the queues in the next 6 months :(

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Expecting this and and am braced for an IR cut.

Hope you guys have moved out of sterling.

yeah but sadly my local Tesco won't accept Ghanaian cedis. Pah... it's about time they moved into the 21st century! This would never happen at M&S :P

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http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/lmsuk0406.pdf

Why don't you read the full report and then tell me what you think.

It tells me, that there is no unemployment crisis at all. Yeah, more unemployed people, but also alot more employed people - unemployment rate, unchanged. Also, still best part of 600,000 vacancies.

No HPC on the horizon - just more spinning from the bear camp, that can't be backed up with facts.

The only slight thing in your favour is that pay, inc bonuses increased at 4.2% in the year - which is still a bit too high and BoE would be worried if it got to 4.5%.

But there again, affordability improves whilst ever wages keep going up - so who knows, perhaps more pressure on house prices to rise in line with wages.

Crash - not a snowballs chance in hell of a crash !

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http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/lmsuk0406.pdf

Why don't you read the full report and then tell me what you think.

It tells me, that there is no unemployment crisis at all. Yeah, more unemployed people, but also alot more employed people - unemployment rate, unchanged. Also, still best part of 600,000 vacancies.

No HPC on the horizon - just more spinning from the bear camp, that can't be backed up with facts.

The only slight thing in your favour is that pay, inc bonuses increased at 4.2% in the year - which is still a bit too high and BoE would be worried if it got to 4.5%.

But there again, affordability improves whilst ever wages keep going up - so who knows, perhaps more pressure on house prices to rise in line with wages.

Crash - not a snowballs chance in hell of a crash !

Second line of the first paragraph of your above report:

"The number of unemployed people, the unemployed rate and the claimant count have all increased."

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http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/lmsuk0406.pdf

Why don't you read the full report and then tell me what you think.

It tells me, that there is no unemployment crisis at all. Yeah, more unemployed people, but also alot more employed people - unemployment rate, unchanged. Also, still best part of 600,000 vacancies.

No HPC on the horizon - just more spinning from the bear camp, that can't be backed up with facts.

The only slight thing in your favour is that pay, inc bonuses increased at 4.2% in the year - which is still a bit too high and BoE would be worried if it got to 4.5%.

But there again, affordability improves whilst ever wages keep going up - so who knows, perhaps more pressure on house prices to rise in line with wages.

Crash - not a snowballs chance in hell of a crash !

600,000 McJob vacancies won't pay a mortgage. Not unless you work 3 of them at a time.

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Second line of the first paragraph of your above report:

"The number of unemployed people, the unemployed rate and the claimant count have all increased."

Unfortunately, Imupnorth is correct, whilst there were more people unemployed, the figures are distorted by more people entering the market than were made redundant in the period.

I wouldn't say that its all bright and wonderful out there though, I would suggest that rather than the absolute employment figure, a better piece of information would be the number of redunacies in a period, as each of those (arguably) represents a mortgage which will struggle to be paid going forwards.

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Unfortunately, Imupnorth is correct, whilst there were more people unemployed, the figures are distorted by more people entering the market than were made redundant in the period.

I wouldn't say that its all bright and wonderful out there though, I would suggest that rather than the absolute employment figure, a better piece of information would be the number of redunacies in a period, as each of those (arguably) represents a mortgage which will struggle to be paid going forwards.

Read it again.

1. The unemployed figure (the count) has increased.

2. The unemployed RATE (the proportion/percentage of the population as a whole) has increased.

3. The claimant count has increased.

Admittedly, (2) is a small increase (5.0% to 5.1% - Paragraph 3) but when you're talking in millions of people that's quite significant.

The unemployed RATE is actually therefore 2% up overall:

calculation: (5.1-5.0)/5.0 = 0.02

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I tend to use the Claimant Count as this is a narrower measure. Many Unemployment related benefits exclude people returning to the Job Market because they have not been paying their NI. I would suggest therefore that this a reasonable indication of increasing trouble in the jobs market.

The rises we are seeing at the moment are large by recent standards, but the record for oone monthly increase is 71,000 according to an artical I read recently.

We are a long way from all out recession but the boom is over.

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http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/lmsuk0406.pdf

Why don't you read the full report and then tell me what you think.

It tells me, that there is no unemployment crisis at all. Yeah, more unemployed people, but also alot more employed people - unemployment rate, unchanged. Also, still best part of 600,000 vacancies.

No HPC on the horizon - just more spinning from the bear camp, that can't be backed up with facts.

The only slight thing in your favour is that pay, inc bonuses increased at 4.2% in the year - which is still a bit too high and BoE would be worried if it got to 4.5%.

But there again, affordability improves whilst ever wages keep going up - so who knows, perhaps more pressure on house prices to rise in line with wages.

Crash - not a snowballs chance in hell of a crash !

yep no HPC as yet but all the ingredients and recipe are pretty much ready. However I have seen people providing facts for the regional falls as much as 10-15% YOY.

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Ethel,

I read it as 30k more people unemployed but also 76k more people employed also. Whilst that increases the unemployment rate (as a percentage of the total population) it doesn't reflect the fact that more people are employed in absolute terms....

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O.k. I won't argue the toss about the unemployment rate - the bit that I picked up on was the second paragraph which states the working age employment rate was 74.5%, unchanged from the previous quarter.

Not quite sure how this can remain unchanged but yet the unemployment rate be up a whole o.1%, obviously something to do with fiddle factors.

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"wages inc bonuses increased at 4.2% in the year - which is still a bit too high and BoE would be worried if it got to 4.5%."

Surely this is very significant, the BoE have to control inflation and with rising wages and oil at nearly $70 even if they want to lower rates they just can't justify it.

Rate rise later in the year, also short sterling hasnt moved much on the unemployment figures the city seems to share my view.

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ITYS, the wage figure includes bonuses, so is distorted a little. The figure without bonuses is more like 3.8%, I think.

************

It's not a crisis just yet, but once things start going in this direction they usually gather speed. I think this is just the tip of the iceberg. There's no doubt about it: unemployment is now firmly on the rise. The number is still small, and I bet the meeja won't bat an eyelid until the claimant count is back over 1m, by which time you know that we've been in a downward spiral for some time.

More people unemployed means less money being spent in the economy. Firms will cut back and lay off more people to cut costs, leading to less money being spent. It's all part of the vicious circle.

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O.k. I won't argue the toss about the unemployment rate - the bit that I picked up on was the second paragraph which states the working age employment rate was 74.5%, unchanged from the previous quarter.

Not quite sure how this can remain unchanged but yet the unemployment rate be up a whole o.1%, obviously something to do with fiddle factors.

Thing is, you are deemed to be "employed" if you work 16 hours a week. Whatever the figures suggest there is no doubt that unemployment is heading up and a lot of people are becoming aware of it.

(and I reckon I might be next. My employer exports to europe so bring on a lower pound!)

Edited by FollowTheBear

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

ITYS, the wage figure includes bonuses, so is distorted a little. The figure without bonuses is more like 3.8%, I think.

************

It's not a crisis just yet, but once things start going in this direction they usually gather speed. I think this is just the tip of the iceberg. There's no doubt about it: unemployment is now firmly on the rise. The number is still small, and I bet the meeja won't bat an eyelid until the claimant count is back over 1m, by which time you know that we've been in a downward spiral for some time.

More people unemployed means less money being spent in the economy. Firms will cut back and lay off more people to cut costs, leading to less money being spent. It's all part of the vicious circle.

In the last month I have heard from SE people that many SE tradesman are in trouble working in London.

EE workers have undercut the rates to such an extent that they are struggling to find work to pay their big mortgages. To compete they would be cutting their earnings by 50%, makes paying the mortgage very difficult when you have overheads as well. In the past couple of years they had no financial problems.

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Unemployment figures are worthless anyway. If you get sacked from a 60k a year IT job and get hired as a burger-flipper on minimum wage, the unemployment figures say no change, but there's been a significant effect on the economy.

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"Unexpected " ballooning in balance of payments deficits yesterday, "unexpected "rise in unemployment figures today.

But at least house prices keep rising, also "unexpected" in view of the grim figures regarding the performance of the UK economy.

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Unemployment figures are worthless anyway. If you get sacked from a 60k a year IT job and get hired as a burger-flipper on minimum wage, the unemployment figures say no change, but there's been a significant effect on the economy.

Good point.

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600,000 McJob vacancies won't pay a mortgage. Not unless you work 3 of them at a time.

but the Eastern Europeans are doing just that! :lol:

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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