Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
fairygirl

Why The Market Will Now Definitely Crash!

Recommended Posts

Over the last two or three years my mind has been chopping and changing between whether a crash or a GSD is more likely (I certainly don't think prices are going to go up any time soon, due to affordability constraints). It's not that I'm usually indecisive, it's just that the market hasn't behaved as I expected it to, given my research into previous crashes, etc.

However, over the last couple of months, I've been more confused than ever. Yes, I know that the spring bounce exists even when prices are falling, but the spring bounce I am seeing now really is totally mad. Round here people are asking more and more ridiculous prices, which seem to be about 10% higher than last year's achieved sales prices - and, quite unbelievably, as long as they are good houses in good areas, they seem to be achieving them! People are paying whatever it takes to get onto that property "ladder", for fear of missing the "boat" forever - and vendors, in the main, will not accept offers below asking!

Absolute madness, totally crazy, completely unaffordable for pretty much everybody - and this is why I now believe that the market WILL most certainly CRASH. We may have to wait a while longer, probably the end of this year or first half of next year I expect, but when this crash does finally come, I think it will take many people by surprise - and will be FAR bigger than it would have been if this spring bounce hadn't bounced its way up still further.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Over the last two or three years my mind has been chopping and changing between whether a crash or a GSD is more likely (I certainly don't think prices are going to go up any time soon, due to affordability constraints). It's not that I'm usually indecisive, it's just that the market hasn't behaved as I expected it to, given my research into previous crashes, etc.

However, over the last couple of months, I've been more confused than ever. Yes, I know that the spring bounce exists even when prices are falling, but the spring bounce I am seeing now really is totally mad. Round here people are asking more and more ridiculous prices, which seem to be about 10% higher than last year's achieved sales prices - and, quite unbelievably, as long as they are good houses in good areas, they seem to be achieving them! People are paying whatever it takes to get onto that property "ladder", for fear of missing the "boat" forever - and vendors, in the main, will not accept offers below asking!

Absolute madness, totally crazy, completely unaffordable for pretty much everybody - and this is why I now believe that the market WILL most certainly CRASH. We may have to wait a while longer, probably the end of this year or first half of next year I expect, but when this crash does finally come, I think it will take many people by surprise - and will be FAR bigger than it would have been if this spring bounce hadn't bounced its way up still further.

Prices have dropped 6% in my area in the past year and are still falling. That's asking prices and no one get's asking price round here any more.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think it will take many people by surprise - and will be FAR bigger than it would have been if this spring bounce hadn't bounced its way up still further.

I agree. Because we have had a couple of years of stagnation now the majority are really believing that a crash has been avoided but as the debt keeps piling up and the economy weakens it is more and more likely by the day.

However, on the other hand I don't believe all this stuff about prices going up, in small localised areas maybe but it is only the UK average HPI figures staying positive, in part due to NI and Scotland (and some northern counties) Many counties experienced falls last year (Somerset -10%, Oxford -9%, Devon -6% according to Halifax). The represented a £20K+ drop in the value of the average house and would have meant negative equity for many.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Over the last two or three years my mind has been chopping and changing between whether a crash or a GSD is more likely (I certainly don't think prices are going to go up any time soon, due to affordability constraints). It's not that I'm usually indecisive, it's just that the market hasn't behaved as I expected it to, given my research into previous crashes, etc.

However, over the last couple of months, I've been more confused than ever. Yes, I know that the spring bounce exists even when prices are falling, but the spring bounce I am seeing now really is totally mad. Round here people are asking more and more ridiculous prices, which seem to be about 10% higher than last year's achieved sales prices - and, quite unbelievably, as long as they are good houses in good areas, they seem to be achieving them! People are paying whatever it takes to get onto that property "ladder", for fear of missing the "boat" forever - and vendors, in the main, will not accept offers below asking!

Absolute madness, totally crazy, completely unaffordable for pretty much everybody - and this is why I now believe that the market WILL most certainly CRASH. We may have to wait a while longer, probably the end of this year or first half of next year I expect, but when this crash does finally come, I think it will take many people by surprise - and will be FAR bigger than it would have been if this spring bounce hadn't bounced its way up still further.

I stick by everything I've said ever since I joined this site: -

- All you "First Time Buyers" out there - DO NOT NOT NOT NOT buy into this market: Do not sign your lives away. STAY OUT - STAY OUT!!!!!!! The "Housing Market" is the Biggest Ever Pyramid Selling Scam -- it is a MASSIVE SCAM. Whatever you do, - just do not buy - i.e. join and THEREFORE HELP keep the whole Pyramid scam going!!!!

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...ndpost&p=152635

See all my posts - PLEASE please please do not make the mistake of buying into the World's Biggest Ever Pyramid Selling Scam.... the UK "Housing Market".

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...sult_type=posts

Edited by eric pebble

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

didnt anyone tell you?

where you live, is special, and immune to price falls

so the horay henrys will tell you

I would laugh, but you know it's actually true!

I have had SEVERAL friends say to me recently that prices will NEVER crash here because it's such a desirable area. They then go onto say "...because, you know, prices never fell here during the last crash". When I then gently point out that "...er, you know, they did actually, and they took 9 years (NINE YEARS!) to get back to their previous peak", they think I'm making it up. But no, I'm not, these are actual official figures for my area.

People seem to have very short memories and/or are completely unaware of our economic history.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Over the last two or three years my mind has been chopping and changing between whether a crash or a GSD is more likely (I certainly don't think prices are going to go up any time soon, due to affordability constraints). It's not that I'm usually indecisive, it's just that the market hasn't behaved as I expected it to, given my research into previous crashes, etc.

However, over the last couple of months, I've been more confused than ever. Yes, I know that the spring bounce exists even when prices are falling, but the spring bounce I am seeing now really is totally mad. Round here people are asking more and more ridiculous prices, which seem to be about 10% higher than last year's achieved sales prices - and, quite unbelievably, as long as they are good houses in good areas, they seem to be achieving them! People are paying whatever it takes to get onto that property "ladder", for fear of missing the "boat" forever - and vendors, in the main, will not accept offers below asking!

Absolute madness, totally crazy, completely unaffordable for pretty much everybody - and this is why I now believe that the market WILL most certainly CRASH. We may have to wait a while longer, probably the end of this year or first half of next year I expect, but when this crash does finally come, I think it will take many people by surprise - and will be FAR bigger than it would have been if this spring bounce hadn't bounced its way up still further.

David Smith wrote an article in The Sunday Times just before Xmas (or maybe early Jan) where he stated that the worst thing for "Soft Landing" theory was a spring bounce that went ballistic. Last straw etc seemed to be the gist, no reason for interest rates not to go up blah blah blah.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Absolute madness, totally crazy, completely unaffordable for pretty much everybody - and this is why I now believe that the market WILL most certainly CRASH. We may have to wait a while longer, probably the end of this year or first half of next year I expect, but when this crash does finally come, I think it will take many people by surprise - and will be FAR bigger than it would have been if this spring bounce hadn't bounced its way up still further.

You must have more "suckers" in your area, thats all!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Over the last two or three years my mind has been chopping and changing between whether a crash or a GSD is more likely (I certainly don't think prices are going to go up any time soon, due to affordability constraints). It's not that I'm usually indecisive, it's just that the market hasn't behaved as I expected it to, given my research into previous crashes, etc.

However, over the last couple of months, I've been more confused than ever. Yes, I know that the spring bounce exists even when prices are falling, but the spring bounce I am seeing now really is totally mad. Round here people are asking more and more ridiculous prices, which seem to be about 10% higher than last year's achieved sales prices - and, quite unbelievably, as long as they are good houses in good areas, they seem to be achieving them! People are paying whatever it takes to get onto that property "ladder", for fear of missing the "boat" forever - and vendors, in the main, will not accept offers below asking!

Absolute madness, totally crazy, completely unaffordable for pretty much everybody - and this is why I now believe that the market WILL most certainly CRASH. We may have to wait a while longer, probably the end of this year or first half of next year I expect, but when this crash does finally come, I think it will take many people by surprise - and will be FAR bigger than it would have been if this spring bounce hadn't bounced its way up still further.

Do you find it all a bit terrifying perhaps ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just what we need, another bear.

Shhhhh, there, there TTRTR.

Shut your eyes and back to sleep.

Dream happy dreams.

Your alarm clock won't go off just yet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I remember reading the headline on one of those middle england newspapers a few years ago, Daily Mail I think it was. Headline pronounced "Average house to be £360,000 in 2015". I remember thinking to myself that was crazy and it wasnt possible.

To be honest I think it is possible.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest pioneer31

Nothing is shifting in my area. My own folks have their house on the market. So far, the buyers have just been treating viewings as a day out. Window shoppers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I remember reading the headline on one of those middle england newspapers a few years ago, Daily Mail I think it was. Headline pronounced "Average house to be £360,000 in 2015". I remember thinking to myself that was crazy and it wasnt possible.

To be honest I think it is possible.

hear hear!

only if average wages are £100,000 per annum

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Prices have dropped 6% in my area in the past year and are still falling. That's asking prices and no one get's asking price round here any more.

Asking prices did fall here 5/10% in 2005, compared with 2004, but generally last year was very stagnant here with very little actually selling, as buyers were very nervous and most sellers wouldn't take offers.

This year it's gone mad with vendors increasing their asking prices by up to 10/15%, and buyers stepping up to the plate, seemingly not nervous whatsoever. The general feel now is that the crash has been averted, property prices will start rising again slightly, and so now is a good time to move. There seem to be many pent-up buyers here (myself included, although not at any price!) who have been holding off the last couple of years and have decided to buy and get on with their lives.

That's why I feel this stage is so dangerous - it really is a very convincing sucker's rally.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

fairy girl

maybe theres a local reason for prices to go up?

has wages gone up 10%?

or is there an event coming up like olympic games?

or a collusion of estate agents to up prices by 10%?

or even your area has had more sunshine by 10%

Edited by notanewmember

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tell us where you live. :ph34r: (postcode)

is it the bottom of the garden?

The market near me has also gone up for houses between £600K and £1Million - above that they are sticking (especially non-new builds at around £1.4-1.6M that are not chocolate box pretty) - there is sod all stock and the SALE prices (from talking to the EA (who honestly were not BSing [i have my thumbscrews])) have gone up - having said that there are two houses in particular that are sticking - because they are trying to push the market TOO far - postcode is KT11 (Cobham/Oxshott) - one of the agents selling them does need to chop chop though.....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tell us where you live. :ph34r: (postcode)

is it the bottom of the garden?

Aparently Graham Norton lives around the corner and Dale Winton is just up the road :lol:

Edited by cupidstunt

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

fairy girl

maybe theres a local reason for prices to go up?

has wages gone up 10%?

or is there an event coming up like olympic games?

or a collusion of estate agents to up prices by 10%?

or even your area has had more sunshine by 10%

I live in the Cambridge area, so no particular reason that I'm aware of, apart from perhaps some City bonuses percolating their way up here? I think it's mainly though because some perceive this area to be desirable perhaps? However, while very central Cambridge is lovely, the rest of the city and the surrounding villages are nothing to get excited about really, and this madness is happening in the whole area both in and around Cambridge.

However, please note that I am NOT saying that ALL properties are selling at these (even more) inflated prices, because that's not true - some are sticking for months. What I AM saying though is that almost all vendors have increased their asking prices significantly from last year and are refusing, at this stage, to take offers (presumably because their EAs have told them they will get them if they hold out?) - and that many buyers are paying these asking prices & sealed bids are back again, ie there are a lot of buyers out &, for the better properties in the better areas, people are seemingly paying whatever it takes.

It's this panic-buying which has convinced me that we are in a sucker's rally & that prices will drop off a cliff once there's any loss of confidence. There's no way this is just going to plateau after this!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’m no expert on this things (I just like looking at pictures) I’d strongly suggest you don’t buy

there yet!

kt115gq.png

Maybe like Fairygirl the market will pick up again? so you might have missed a boat? ;)

That's a misleading chart - I know the area more than well and can probably tell you just about every house for sale near me, BUT there are an awful lot of less desirable houses that have not made the money - again I can probably list say 20 that sold last year for less than the seller paid... BUT they were BTL style properties (i.e. priced under £250K and a fair few were 'executive' flats (give me strength with that description).

It's also the point that there are 'lots' of premium priced properties, so a couple of enormous houses not selling will skew the figures.

Graphs are great, but they don't show you the houses... which is a problem when they are basically individual houses so you can't price one up next to the one that sold last year.

Edit - just to clarify, I know there are muppets who bought high and will struggle to sell for what they paid, but there are also a lot of hopefully wiser people who paid a lot less than the asking and did the improvements themselves who are not MEWing £400K on some EA sayso of value to buy lots of BTL at the moment as well :) - like most areas KT11 has been hit with the muppets who pile into everything below the stamp duty theshold with no idea of what they are doing - and they ARE getting burned - which is their fault in my book...

Edited by Rachman

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.