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Elizabeth

Time To Close The Website? Why?

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I posted this on the ODPM figures string, but I am a bit irritated by the number of gloomers and doomsayers at the moment, so I am going to honour it with its own string. Just when the numbers tell us that housing prices really have hit the turn, hundreds of newbies pile in saying things about how pointless it is waiting. Where do you come from? Where are you going?

Its like making custard and just as its about to turn nicely, turning up the burner and walking away from the pan. Well if you want to be part of the clumpy mess that follows be my guest. But not I dear readers. I'm feeling pretty happy actually. Not being one for news style bandwagon of excitement over small bites of data I pulled up the stats for the last 6 months so I could really get a picture. And here it is for your delectation:

Sep......186,755

Oct......185,398......-0.73%

Nov......186,431......0.56%

Dec......186,103......-0.18%

Jan......185,404......-0.38%

Feb......183,224......-1.18%

I have to say, that is looking like a relatively stagnant market following by a sharp downward adjustment.

But just to be sure I gather from the ODPM a quarterly picture of the year on year change over the past 4 quarters:

http://www.odpm.gov.uk/index.asp?id=1156110

Year Quarter Average YOYInflation

2003....Q1......133,711

............Q2......141,819

............Q3......162,121

............Q4......166,208

2004....Q1......168,928......26.34%

............Q2......177,128......24.90%

............Q3......189,139......16.67%

............Q4......185,797......11.79%

2005....Q1......185,194......9.63%

............Q2......189,852......7.18%

............Q3......199,051......5.24%

............Q4......188,944......1.69%

Sorry guys. I would suggest that is a SCREAMING HALT.

You couldn't make it up!

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Guest Winners and Losers

You couldn't make it up!

Did you just make that up honeychops??? ;)

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Did you just make that up honeychops??? ;)

Absolutely not my dear darling peony :lol::lol::lol: . That is why I included the ODPM link, so that anyone who was not entirely convinced could validate it for themselves (academic referencing). I've got a lot of integrity, but there are so many shysters on the board at the moment and since I don't believe in blind trust of strangers without proof, that should apply to me also so I thought it appropriate to allow people to see the raw data for themselves.

Edited by Elizabeth

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Absolutely not my dear darling peony :lol::lol::lol: . That is why I included the ODPM link, so that anyone who was not entirely convinced could validate it for themselves (academic referencing). I've got a lot of integrity, but there are so many shysters on the board at the moment and since I don't believe in blind trust of strangers without proof, that should apply to me also so I thought it appropriate to allow people to see the raw data for themselves.

oh no but all the houses round my way are going at 15% above asking, in fact people are knocking on strangers doors and offering them historically unprecedented figures for their houses before they even get advertised in my office

and let me tell you about rents! oooh, rocketing, escape velocity, on their way to Jupiter I tell ya!

ad infinitum

:rolleyes:

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Nice one Elizabeth!

I really wanted to buy in 2003 then in 2005... now I know better and its important to point out the rational and non VI-spun ODPM stats to all - particularly with all the peeps now posting that they are fed up waiting and are going to be suckered into the market now.

- Pye (Property Speculation Ninja :ph34r: )

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Guest Winners and Losers

oh no but all the houses round my way are going at 15% above asking, in fact people are knocking on strangers doors and offering them historically unprecedented figures for their houses before they even get advertised in my office

and let me tell you about rents! oooh, rocketing, escape velocity, on their way to Jupiter I tell ya!

ad infinitum

:rolleyes:

:lol::lol::lol::lol:

I think you should get on the ladder before you miss the boat!!!

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Agree that it’s a Screaming Halt, but isn’t that news from last year? :D The problem is that the ODPM/LR data is both lagging by at least 1—2 months and is not SA corrected – the first means that the very high February approvals, and their implied HPI, are probably still lurking deep within the LR HPI pipeline, and the second means that we have a large seasonal dip superimposed on the present results. I’ve run an X12 SA methodology on the other thread to try and take this out and the results are certainly consistent with a turning point in HPI early this year. Then I’ve compared the ODPM (shifted back by 1.5 months) with the Halifax HPI, see below – the fit is quite nice. :)

YoY HPI - ODPM/LR (lagged) and Nationwide

v4ywlv.jpg

Sources: as per usual places.

Edited by spline

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I disagree, there is a lot of spin here that prices are going down.

Maybe it is regional because where I live on the South Coast prices are going up slightly and property is selling like hot cakes.

However that to me is the key indicator of what happens next. Forget Stagnation it doesnt exist its either up or down and I'm afraid its up. And as they say, the higher they go the harder they fall and my god are they going to fall.

For those who are new to the game, all crashes have been preceded by a double dip whereby people who thought they were in the know but still eager held off, they then gave up and jumped on board not wishing to miss out on the great british property bonanza.

And thankfully to those very people I had a very nice time buying up the repo's and letting to students.

Long may we prosper!!.

But make sure you are not one of those who lost his nerve and jumped in having made the decision to hold off for so long. Remember he who laughs last, laughs longest, or a fool and his money are soon parted, or your best friend is your pocket.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

For those who are new to the game, all crashes have been preceded by a double dip whereby people who thought they were in the know but still eager held off, they then gave up and jumped on board not wishing to miss out on the great british property bonanza.

But make sure you are not one of those who lost his nerve and jumped in having made the decision to hold off for so long. Remember he who laughs last, laughs longest, or a fool and his money are soon parted, or your best friend is your pocket.

Spot on laurejon us oldies have seen it all before. ;)

Helped along this time by the court petitions below.

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Yes indeed Charlie, the ingredients are all there the pot is on the front stove and shortly the temperature will be raised by increasing interest rates, then the stew will be well and truly cooked.

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Maybe it is regional because where I live on the South Coast prices are going up slightly and property is selling like hot cakes.

where I am hot cakes are selling like property

cake agent: "roll up roll up, come get your lovely hot cakes, quick now before they go tepid"

impressionable first cake buyer: "seems quite lukewarm to me"

ca "just pop it in the microwave"

ifcb "I think I'll pass, thanks"

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For those who are new to the game, all crashes have been preceded by a double dip whereby people who thought they were in the know but still eager held off, they then gave up and jumped on board not wishing to miss out on the great british property bonanza.

That makes a lot of sense. Explains nicely what's been happening lately.

Let's hope you are right.

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That makes a lot of sense. Explains nicely what's been happening lately.

Let's hope you are right.

Now that’s slightly confusing – I though someone posted that a triple candlestick with hairy armpits was the real harbinger of approaching disaster. ;)

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Now that’s slightly confusing – I though someone posted that a triple candlestick with hairy armpits was the real harbinger of approaching disaster.

?????????????

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I think you should get on the ladder before you miss the boat!!!

Two questions that have always bothered me;

1. How does getting on a ladder going to get you to the boat on time?

2. Where exactly is that boat going to and why is it staying there forever?

:lol:

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Spot on laurejon us oldies have seen it all before. ;)

Helped along this time by the court petitions below.

I'm another subscriber to the "it'll get worse before it gets better" school of thought. Prices need to go a bit higher, as do IRs (unless there's some other form of economic shock).

The posters (both bull and bear) who expect to see the crash in real time will be disappointed. If it's anything like last time ladies and gents, you've got a about 3 years to wait for the bottom of the trough, and we'll be arguing and spinning all the way down.

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Agree that it’s a Screaming Halt, but isn’t that news from last year? :D The problem is that the ODPM/LR data is both lagging by at least 1—2 months and is not SA corrected – the first means that the very high February approvals, and their implied HPI, are probably still lurking deep within the LR HPI pipeline, and the second means that we have a large seasonal dip superimposed on the present results. I’ve run an X12 SA methodology on the other thread to try and take this out and the results are certainly consistent with a turning point in HPI early this year. Then I’ve compared the ODPM (shifted back by 1.5 months) with the Halifax HPI, see below – the fit is quite nice. :)

YoY HPI - ODPM/LR (lagged) and Nationwide

v4ywlv.jpg

Sources: as per usual places.

spline can you tell me where I can get a copy of the Halifax data? I did a web search but couldn't find a site with the stats.

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Guest Winners and Losers

I'm another subscriber to the "it'll get worse before it gets better" school of thought. Prices need to go a bit higher, as do IRs (unless there's some other form of economic shock).

The posters (both bull and bear) who expect to see the crash in real time will be disappointed. If it's anything like last time ladies and gents, you've got a about 3 years to wait for the bottom of the trough, and we'll be arguing and spinning all the way down.

Not that I know much (compared to 'Statsman' - my new Hero. Sorry TTRTR, WAL very fickle), from my experience in Australia, once people see that the market is flattening for a significant amount of time, say 1 year, that will have a big effect on the sentiment of both buyers and sellers (=standoff). I don't think it will be three years. I think it will become more noticeable at the end of this year and 2007 will be the big standoff. Maybe 2008 is looking good? - Please do not carve my post in stone, it is not factually based. ;)

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Nice one, I think this site has a moral responsibility to highlight data such as this.

It's the start of a bright sunny Easter holiday, and many an over priced home will be viewed by those tired of waiting and who's resolution has been softened by relentless 'vested interest' spin.

If you are passing by here to renew focus, then there you have it.

Hold off! What's another year?

Don't pay twice what your future neighbour payed for theirs only 4 years ago. Wait a while and pay the same!

.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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