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I Told You So

Acceptance Of Coming Ir Rises

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Most on here will now agree that rates in the UK will be moving up sooner rather than later, even some of the press are starting to talk about it.

Will the mere talk of rises be enough to scare the BTL late comers into selling in their droves, or will they only be persuaded by actual rate movements?

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Most on here will now agree that rates in the UK will be moving up sooner rather than later, even some of the press are starting to talk about it.

Will the mere talk of rises be enough to scare the BTL late comers into selling in their droves, or will they only be persuaded by actual rate movements?

I posted some data from my local W Midlands paper yesterday that showed 20% of the properties listed were "no upward chain." I think the market speaks for itself.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=27570

Its amazing how a pro like TTRTR has forgotten the key to profit: buy low and sell high.

Edited by Realistbear

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The talk from Banks is interest rate cuts, and it appears Number 10 support that view.

With the market now accelerating we should see some negligable gains this year followed by an excellent and very rememberable crash following as the credit freeze comes into force and the Labour Party throw their hands up in despair and all look to Gordon to explain the miracle economy that was nothing more than a chirade of economic activity funded by public and Government borrowing.

How anyone could possibly declare an economy and miracle and a success when trade deficits are at all time highs,public spending is at all time highs, and borrowing is the only catalyst to drive it forward beggers belief.

Only a corrupt bunch of ex Pot Smoking Socialists could have invented this one.

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Most on here will now agree that rates in the UK will be moving up sooner rather than later, even some of the press are starting to talk about it.

Will the mere talk of rises be enough to scare the BTL late comers into selling in their droves, or will they only be persuaded by actual rate movements?

I think they'll wait until the rates change. Because they'll probably be drooling over imminent rate cuts right up until a rise happens. Then the first thing that would happen is that they are going to try and put the rents up. When they start poaching tenants off each other is where the fun will start.

Billy Shears

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The talk from Banks is interest rate cuts, and it appears Number 10 support that view.

where? got any links, please?

all the posts from the indefatigble "realistbear" point to global moves to tightening...

How anyone could possibly declare an economy and miracle and a success when trade deficits are at all time highs,public spending is at all time highs, and borrowing is the only catalyst to drive it forward beggers belief.

Only a corrupt bunch of ex Pot Smoking Socialists could have invented this one.

agree with this bit! :)

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where? got any links, please?

Presumably they mean the banks who are trying to convince people to take out huge mortgages on overpriced houses?

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Most on here will now agree that rates in the UK will be moving up sooner rather than later, even some of the press are starting to talk about it.

Will the mere talk of rises be enough to scare the BTL late comers into selling in their droves, or will they only be persuaded by actual rate movements?

Same old HPC obsession with IRs yadda yadda yadda.

Why not consider something that really is happening and likely to continue - umemployment

If we hold our course of IRs and they peak in the US and then start to go down again as the economy there slows then we may never see higher IRs

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Times online, however I was suprised to see that they are not predicting a cut in rates, yet past month the pressure has been for a cut.

I reckon the Bank of England and the Chancellor are feeding us some George ********. Putting a spin on just about everything even down to the direction of interest rates.

When it happens and they go up, there are gonna be a lot of dissapointed people as it appears they Government are suggesting that rates will remain stable.

The message from Number 10 is keep borrowing, and please please keep spending.

ECONOMIC prospects for the second quarter have improved markedly, according to a leading business survey to be published this week. The pick-up in growth is likely to dampen hopes of more interest-rate cuts by the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee, which left base rate unchanged at 4.5% last week for the eighth successive month.

The quarterly trend survey by the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) is expected to reveal that business has shrugged off its winter weaknesses. The upturn applies to both services and manufacturing, which recent official figures had suggested were still in the doldrums.

The survey of 5,000 firms — 3,500 in services and 1,500 in manufacturing — will show a particularly encouraging recovery in export optimism and orders, on the back of a strong global economy and faster growth in Europe. But it also shows strength in the domestic economy, with orders up. “There is no denying this is good news, though some of the recovery is from a low base,” said a BCC source. The survey is closely watched by the Bank.

It will be taken as evidence that the economy is back on a recovery track after a weak 2005. It also points to some recovery in job prospects. Significantly, the BCC did not criticise the Bank for not cutting interest rates last week.

Hopes of lower interest rates have faded with evidence of a strong pick-up in the housing market, with the Halifax (0.9%) and Nationwide (1.1%) reporting price rises last month. The Office of the Deputy Prime Minister will publish its house price index tomorrow.

In addition, the pound has weakened since American interest rates rose above those in Britain. And with the prospect of further rate hikes in Europe, sterling dropped last week to its lowest level against the euro for more than a year.

Despite this, economists have not abandoned hope of further UK interest-rate cuts. A survey by Ideaglobal.com puts a 60% probability on the next move, in November, being down.

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For the sake of argument can we assume rates will rise 3rd or 4th qtr

the initial question still remains unanswered

Sorry, what was the question...? ;)

Oh, yes - BTLs chucking the towel in. Hmm. Depends when they bought. If they're recent purchasers they'll be hanging on in defiance, I reckon, rather than cutting their losses. I think it'll take more that .25% rise to put the fear into many of them, especially those on fixed rates! I favour it will be a general acceptance that the market has truly peaked (and is headed down) that will make most bail out, and that may take more than one IR hike.

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I dont think BTL is ever going to be a big issue, and it certainly wont crash the market.

Most BTL'ers I would guess have sufficient funds to ride out the storm, as the second or third home would be bought on the back of the principle house that most likely has a very very small mortgage.

The real problem as in all downward markets are the newbies who are wet behind the ears and euphoric about owning their first home, hocked up to the hilt and overloaded with masses of debt and a mindset that tells them that they will be earning more money in a few years time.

Unfortunately in a recession (Something they have only ever read about and never experienced) they would be lucky to have a job, and the possiblility of a pay rise is remote.

These are the people that will tip the market and pull down the Gordon Brown house of cards.

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I dont think BTL is ever going to be a big issue, and it certainly wont crash the market.

Most BTL'ers I would guess have sufficient funds to ride out the storm, as the second or third home would be bought on the back of the principle house that most likely has a very very small mortgage.

The real problem as in all downward markets are the newbies who are wet behind the ears and euphoric about owning their first home, hocked up to the hilt and overloaded with masses of debt and a mindset that tells them that they will be earning more money in a few years time.

Unfortunately in a recession (Something they have only ever read about and never experienced) they would be lucky to have a job, and the possiblility of a pay rise is remote.

These are the people that will tip the market and pull down the Gordon Brown house of cards.

I think your third paragraph can also apply to a great many newbie BTL landlords.

I can see a large increase in property supply from BTL "getting out".

Think about it, a great many of the city centre new builds have been bought by investors. You have given them the credit that they won't be overstretched and will have funds to ride it out. I doubt this will be the situation for many.

Of course the professionaly landlords who have been in it "man and boy" will be fine.

NDL

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The talk from Banks is interest rate cuts, and it appears Number 10 support that view.

With the market now accelerating we should see some negligable gains this year followed by an excellent and very rememberable crash following as the credit freeze comes into force and the Labour Party throw their hands up in despair and all look to Gordon to explain the miracle economy that was nothing more than a chirade of economic activity funded by public and Government borrowing.

How anyone could possibly declare an economy and miracle and a success when trade deficits are at all time highs,public spending is at all time highs, and borrowing is the only catalyst to drive it forward beggers belief.

Only a corrupt bunch of ex Pot Smoking Socialists could have invented this one.

Would have agreed 100% some 3 months ago but I now think the possibility of a short term cut is less likely.

When we look back in a few years the peak may have been back in spring 2004 and we are now in a "sucker rally" or "dead cat bounce" senario whichever you prefer. Remember a suckers rally must be quite convincing for people to fall for it but I think this one isnt very convincing at all; unemployment rises, global interest rates rising, debt at all time highs, zero or loss profits from BTL, economy sliding with confidence falling, retail sector grumbling, taxes increasing, real cost of living starting to rise rapidly......

Where's the plus side for this rally? Cheap mortgage (not for much longer) low official inflation figures :lol:

undersupply (new build everwhere, property standing empty?) Economic outlook good.... :huh: ..... :lol:

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Listen Jabba

I'm always right its just taking longer than expected

Don't worry you'll be getting a barrage of I Told You So's in the not to distant future.

Edited by I Told You So

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Most on here will now agree that rates in the UK will be moving up sooner rather than later, even some of the press are starting to talk about it.

Will the mere talk of rises be enough to scare the BTL late comers into selling in their droves, or will they only be persuaded by actual rate movements?

The majority of them that I know have convinced themselves they can ride out any storm... the mantra I keep hearing is "oh it's my pension so it doesn't matter if it falls in the short term". Obviously I'm never Mr Popular when I point out that there's a distinct possibility, considering a falling birth rate, that in 30 years demand for property might much lower than today. Of course these same people poo poo'd me back in 2002-2003 when I told them all to put money into stake holder pensions tracking the FTSE-All share.

I should imagine there are a subset who can afford to take a loss who will jump ship when they finally twig their "investment" isn't going to yield massive short term gains.

Edited by DoubleBubbleTrouble

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ex Pot Smoking Socialists

Oi. If you dont mind please do not compare this bunch of useless Islington metrosexuals with socialists. Its an insult to ex pot smoking socialists everywhere. They are not socialists, and are usual ex cokeheads.

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I'm patiently waiting. Being Jabba, that's all I really can do in between snacks.....

Your other avatar had a great mystical presence and quite spooky. This is just a fat bloke. Which ones nearer the mark

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Wanna pension? Stick money into a fund. Japan, Europe and Pacific funds are doing lovely at the mo!

I've made 5% on my investment in 45 days!

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Wanna pension? Stick money into a fund. Japan, Europe and Pacific funds are doing lovely at the mo!

I've made 5% on my investment in 45 days!

Are you the shoeshine boy?

Have you considered the underlying fragility that supports both these markets and the UK housing market.

If you believe in a HPC then avoid stock markets.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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