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Guest_James Toney_*

Can't See A Crash Happening At All Now

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Can't see a crash happening at all now, hope I am wrong though as I really want it to happen.

I have told too many people it will happen, and looking at it I have been saying it for 3 years.

Things in the last few months have changed here in the north west

Houses in the north west are selling, and selling for asking prices and selling quick.

Not saying where I live but a couple bought the house down the road from me, nice house, they paid 120k for it about 2 years ago, but I bought mine 5 years ago for 45k

They have now split up and the house was on sale, for 137k, I thought there would be no way they will get it, or it will be on for months at that price, but it sold straight away.

I went passed my first house that I sold for 27k about 5 years ago, and saw that next door was for sale for 92k I could not believe it. Has not sold yet so I will be looking with interest.

Also a street where my mam lives council estate where houses where 15-25k at the most 5 years ago. House across the road for sale done out nice, shat area though, was talking to the owners 2 weeks ago and they were saying that they are putting it on for sale for 84k, was laughing to myself, thinking no way. Who the hell would live here in this area full of druggies, criminals, and pay that sort of money for it. I told my mam and said that they will not sell it is too high, people will not want to live here, it will still be for sale in 6 months

Went around yesterday sold sign, said they got their full money,

Remember this is a poor area and people do not earn 25k people earn 12-15k,

What is going on is this the trend now, because it has changed in the last couple of months.

I was hoping for an almighty crash and was hoping for at least 50%

And sick of thicko people telling me I was wrong and there will be no crash, that they can only go up, all the usual b0ll0cks, we all hear, but now I am thinking they might be right, and TTRTR is right all the long.

Never thought it would get to this

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

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:lol::lol: not an EA , but i do have a friend whos dad is, and he told me two years ago that things would get bad, is he wrong too?

He's not wrong, it will get bad and a crash/slide will happen. If there was a date for this then everyone would

try and sell-up to profit from it.

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Can't see a crash happening at all now, hope I am wrong though as I really want it to happen.

I have told too many people it will happen, and looking at it I have been saying it for 3 years.

Things in the last few months have changed here in the north west

Houses in the north west are selling, and selling for asking prices and selling quick.

Typical argument again.

Bears: The fundamentals say that houses are overvalued, are not sustainable, and there must be some form of correction at some time.

Bulls: Look, prices have gone up again, you're wrong.

When house prices are driven by "irrational exuberance" then it's hard to predict when the market will top out.

But the fundamentals have tipped even further towards the bears camp with interest rates rising around the world, FTBs being priced out, and rental yields not being sensible.

Billy Shears

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He's not wrong, it will get bad and a crash/slide will happen. If there was a date for this then everyone would

try and sell-up to profit from it.

i am a bear here, i am just making the point that i have been saying/hoping/thinking it for two years, and two years later houses are still rising and selling fast, i just can't understand it.

hope the crash does happen

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i am a bear here, i am just making the point that i have been saying/hoping/thinking it for two years, and two years later houses are still rising and selling fast, i just can't understand it.

hope the crash does happen

Check the latest ODPM figures - I think you'll find a seasonally unadjusted fall of 1.2%

There may be more suckers into the rally, but they will soon run out.

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Go and buy one then - Jabba/TTRTR took risks when he bought property and it's paid off

Buy one now and see if you get the same result - I doubt it - but you never know...

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i am a bear here, i am just making the point that i have been saying/hoping/thinking it for two years, and two years later houses are still rising and selling fast, i just can't understand it.

hope the crash does happen

I think the reason is that relentless VI spinning has managed to prolong the bubble beyond, if you like, its natural life.

The dramatic rises topped out in the middle of 2004, we would now be in the grips of a crash but the VIs have managed to keep people buying for the time being (although it is now investors rather than FTB's).

This process can not last forever, once the investors realise that they are loosing money they will be out of the market like a shot.

IMHO we are about to see a spate of stories about investors in new build flats loosing fortunes, which could then be the trigger for the wider crash.

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We have to concede that there are some signs:

1. Worldwide IR headed up with the Fed takling the lead.

2. Rising unemployment in the UK

3. Higher insolvency rates in the UK necessitating CAB taking on 500 debt counselors last week

4. ODPM figures show drops in house prices in early part of this year with flats dropping 4.6%

5. Japan already moving to tighten IR

6. Retail in a long slump

7. FTBs virtually exinct

Other than that, things look okay for continuing inflation in housing.

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Can't see a crash happening at all now, hope I am wrong though as I really want it to happen.

I have told too many people it will happen, and looking at it I have been saying it for 3 years.

Things in the last few months have changed here in the north west

Houses in the north west are selling, and selling for asking prices and selling quick.

Not saying where I live but a couple bought the house down the road from me, nice house, they paid 120k for it about 2 years ago, but I bought mine 5 years ago for 45k

They have now split up and the house was on sale, for 137k, I thought there would be no way they will get it, or it will be on for months at that price, but it sold straight away.

I went passed my first house that I sold for 27k about 5 years ago, and saw that next door was for sale for 92k I could not believe it. Has not sold yet so I will be looking with interest.

Also a street where my mam lives council estate where houses where 15-25k at the most 5 years ago. House across the road for sale done out nice, shat area though, was talking to the owners 2 weeks ago and they were saying that they are putting it on for sale for 84k, was laughing to myself, thinking no way. Who the hell would live here in this area full of druggies, criminals, and pay that sort of money for it. I told my mam and said that they will not sell it is too high, people will not want to live here, it will still be for sale in 6 months

Went around yesterday sold sign, said they got their full money,

Remember this is a poor area and people do not earn 25k people earn 12-15k,

What is going on is this the trend now, because it has changed in the last couple of months.

I was hoping for an almighty crash and was hoping for at least 50%

And sick of thicko people telling me I was wrong and there will be no crash, that they can only go up, all the usual b0ll0cks, we all hear, but now I am thinking they might be right, and TTRTR is right all the long.

Never thought it would get to this

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

rubbish, I know 2-3 people who have had their properties on the market for at least 8 months without a sale!

obviously a p*** take this post

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If we wait long enough there'll be another Ice Age - depends how long you want to wait (just so you can say 'I told you so')

Yes and if we wait long enough summer will come again. But who knows how long that will take? Hey, wait a second ...

Billy Shears

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We have to concede that there are some signs:

1. Worldwide IR headed up with the Fed takling the lead.

2. Rising unemployment in the UK

3. Higher insolvency rates in the UK necessitating CAB taking on 500 debt counselors last week

4. ODPM figures show drops in house prices in early part of this year with flats dropping 4.6%

5. Japan already moving to tighten IR

6. Retail in a long slump

7. FTBs virtually exinct

Other than that, things look okay for continuing inflation in housing.

8. Possible middle-east conflict.

9. Stealth taxes slowly eroding disposable income

10. Restrained wage inflation vs high consumer inflation (not CPI)

Yes and if we wait long enough summer will come again. But who knows how long that will take? Hey, wait a second ...

Billy Shears

You must be joking... its was 1 degree C in my car this morning. Summer my ar5e!

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If we wait long enough there'll be another Ice Age - depends how long you want to wait (just so you can say 'I told you so')

I'm not interested in saying I told you so - I just want to buy a house.

B)

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8. Possible middle-east conflict.

9. Stealth taxes slowly eroding disposable income

10. Restrained wage inflation vs high consumer inflation (not CPI)

Don't forget global warming, bird flu, the switch to digital, speed cameras, drugs in sport, squeezy Marmite, etc etc etc . . .

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:lol::lol: not an EA , but i do have a friend whos dad is, and he told me two years ago that things would get bad, is he wrong too?

i am hoping for a crash really

If you don't mind me asking, what's in it for you if there's a crash? You've already said that you bought your own property 5 years ago, therefore you must now have considerable equity due to HPI.

Why would you want a crash which would wipe this out?

I'm confused.

:huh:

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If you don't mind me asking, what's in it for you if there's a crash? You've already said that you bought your own property 5 years ago, therefore you must now have considerable equity due to HPI.

Why would you want a crash which would wipe this out?

I'm confused.

:huh:

If someone wants to move up the ladder, are they better off before or after a crash.

With no offense intended towards Ethel (How's Billy the Mountain these days?), it's very telling that not many people realise how HPI is bad for people who already own houses unless they intend to downsize or move in with someone else. Or die.

Billy Shears

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If you don't mind me asking, what's in it for you if there's a crash? You've already said that you bought your own property 5 years ago, therefore you must now have considerable equity due to HPI.

Why would you want a crash which would wipe this out?

I'm confused.

:huh:

Because the equity isn't worth as much when you try to move up the ladder.

To buy a large house you used to need (one small house equity + an amount of capital)

Now you need (one small house equity + a very large amount of capital)

The value of you equity is actual diminishing if you want to move up the ladder (which most people do).

I am beginning to believe it is all a very elaborate way of keeping everyone from pending climactic migration.

It has become a strange world where men build prisons for their children.

NEWSFLASH: You're all going to die.

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If someone wants to move up the ladder, are they better off before or after a crash.

With no offense intended towards Ethel (How's Billy the Mountain these days?), it's very telling that not many people realise how HPI is bad for people who already own houses unless they intend to downsize or move in with someone else. Or die.

Billy Shears

True - apologies for my shortsighted view.

As a potential FTB, I'm so far from the bottom rung that climbing up the ladder is a concept that is quite difficult for me to envisage.

:)

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If someone wants to move up the ladder, are they better off before or after a crash.

With no offense intended towards Ethel (How's Billy the Mountain these days?), it's very telling that not many people realise how HPI is bad for people who already own houses unless they intend to downsize or move in with someone else. Or die.

Billy Shears

This is sooo true. When people boast about their house's "worth" why do they never seem to consider the extra amount (in real terms) they're having to fork out to move into a bigger house?

Staggering short-sightedness and plain stupidity... :blink:

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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