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"diary Of A Str"

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It deserves to be preserved here:

2001: well well , our house has risen from the ashes, I think it's about time I cashed in that £50,000 equity I've made before the crash comes. <Sells house for 500k proud as punch.> I think once I've paid for solicitors fees, estate agents fees, removal fees and admin fees of new rental....I'll treat the Mrs to something....why not I've done damn well getting "out" so cleanly . <thinks> Mustn't spend too much of this it is after all our home. Forget that last thought actually. I'm going to splash out on a luxury rental. You only live once and sandwiched in a top end ostentacious rental somewhere between world famous Bob Carolgees and spit the dog and the internationally renowned Bernie Clifton and his hilarious Ostrich act is THE only way to spend that time. Looks like I've culturally and financially arrived. The money? Pah! Get arrrrt of ere! With my subscription and guidance through the oncoming carnage from amateur sloperty market monthly, AKA Money week, I'll soon make it back.......and more!

Contrarianism rocks! Bring on the crash!

<hop,skip,jump>

2002: We'll buy the back end of this year when prices start to free fall, it's all going to be down hill from here. So quickly I'll be straight back in by the end of next year. Annihilation awaits any man barmy enough to hold property in this gigantic bubble. Wham baaam thaaaaank you Maaam and a quick £250k for me troubles. What more does a property expert like me want?

Well.....errrrr.... Ok.... confession time dear diary. The market going in my direction would be one thing, but hey, mere trivialty on the grand scheme of things. Besides, ..err look on the "bright" side ..Why should I now pay the slightly higher price of £575k for my old house when I know I can get it for £250k next year? Puh! I am good, see... see I've still got it, the magic's still there. I do know all about HPI theory.

There's also even more mounting "evidence"that I'm right, theoretical proffessors and the great thinkers our time are coming round to my way of thinking. Sentiment always was the key, and having come full circle [my nephew's step brother's financee's mother's cousin recently put her property on the market for £249,495 and it sold for £249,200 within 4 weeks as opposed to the 3 weeks they were selling in a few months back], it's a clear indiction that things are on the turn. The slide is on. Debt is overwhelming people. Once people see my price falls in middle england cresent, they'll be going down to their local Caravan World to view at the weekend never mind blinking Barrat or Bryant! After all, everyone thinks exactly just like I do as regards buying a PPR. You know, initially invest, never nest. Don't they? DON'T THEY!

Anyway, as proffessor Oswald from Warwick Uni says, roll on "the great property crash of 2003-2005"! Oooooh I love thinking like a box....errrrr.... outside the box I mean.

Roll on the crash!

<hop,skip>

early 2003: Blow me, this has gone waayyyy beyond my expectations, I'm definitely going to put off for another year. The longer this HPI goes on for the worse it's downfall is going to be. There aint no caving in going on here, that I can assure you. The more i..i..i..itt... g..gg..ggoes against m..m..my grain the b..b..better. No n..n.n...nerves hh..h..ere what so ever. The taller they are the harder they fall.....yeah that's it..... that's me new motto, that one is!

But alas, who can I blame for my renting situation? I know, my landlord seems to be doing very well for himself, I'll blame him and his motley crew for my situation,I know they only account for 6% of the market, but hey, a guy like me has to have a scapegoat.....it could never be **MY** fault for **MY** situation

Bring it on!

<skip>

Mid 2003: Blinking landlords look what they've done to me!!! Rates are at a 50 year low, fueling the market further way beyond my wages. Seems also that 4.5 x earnings at 3.5% IR does have a slightly different effect than 4.5x earnings at 10-14% IR. Ere's me thinking Mr and Mrs Smith always look at a p/e ratio chart when they buy a home!!! That damn money week, blinking Farlo, ruddy Oswald they've screwed me. Done me gud and proper, stiched me up like a kipper!

However I've lost way too much money to back down on this one. What the heck am I to do? I know! Back to them poxy money raking landlords! Sure there's only 6% of them making the market up, but from now on as far as I'm concerned they're the ONLY people buying, no one else, the figures must be fudged. I thought I had this cotton pickin market sussed! Who are these people?

Aaahhhh at last I've found a site where they all hang out, 'TMF practical property investing'.....'them lot' are all there, proud as punch (you know the massive 6% of the market I spoke of) I'm going to fiddle with their minds! Who says I have to play by the rules?

Great, I knew that would work, TMF have given me my own new club, PMT, Property market and trends. Ha there's only one trend on there getting mentioned, that I CAN tell you!.Now I can really get cracking on t'intenet and talk this bubble down. I gain all my information from PMT, and it is totally impartial as it's only bears on there. Doom and gloom and scaring the monger has to be the way forward. Roll, roll up and tell them all how greedy and stupid they all are. Pheweeee tiger, at long last I feel safe, I was beginning to think I'd called it wrong. Ha, ha.ha ha..............

2004: Blinking heck, I'm proper panicking now, me old house as git gone up to £700k I'm going to have to go into full on deramp mode and try and instill some fear in those positive little twerps, show them ooos boss like. Japan, that's a good one I'll mention it loads, then tulips and tech shares. As far as I'm concerned they are all now all EXACTLY the same as this gently ris.....errrrr bubble. Property ownership's only fer shallow people, yep that's a gud un as well! I am secretly FUMING.!!! The house I should have held onto in 2001, AKA my home, has now gone up some 30%!

Not only that but I could have bought up North and made a few million, as a pin in a map 50 miles north of Watford would have gotten me a 100% return, and easy a few £million geared. Jeez I want to strangle these twerps, they've made me lose and made themselves very rich in the process! I'm going to ponder what has caused my situation for the rest of the year, in the meantime I'll stop in the same job,and pass on promotion,because none of this is my fault. HPC.co.uk and all the clever bears on the PMT web site says so.....we all say prices will drop 72.4% so it's good to hang on another year. I don't need me promotion, I'll make more de ramping any day of the week! I'll show them lot! United we stand, divided we fall. Must keep up the recruiting though, must mention the Japan model again tomorrow. None of 'them lot' will be clever enough to look into it and find out about the decade long deflation and the fact that at Japan's peak in the early 90's Tokyo property prices per sq ft were actually comparable to London prices of today. Who cares about the reasons why, it's the result that matters innit!........ Innit?

Oh, and one last thing I need to practice on you, my Dear diary, is this bit. I've got to get this word perfect for PMT......

It's not my fault it's yours, It's yours I tell you!!!. your're all greedy, and even though I'm an amateur speculator I'm not! , and even though you all got it totally right and then some and I got it totally wrong for years on end, you're the dumb skulls right!! RIGHT!.......and...and..and... the sky is falling in , yep.... Ive read it in the Express!! I told you it would, over the last 3 years. I am right you are all wrong!

Secretly though Dear diary, what else can someone like me, in my precarious loss holding position, do or say?

Please oh dreary diary, please I beg you to bring it on.

<what ever> :-(

2005: Jeez, where **IS** the top of this mountain at?

2006: Old house now £800k. :-((((

I can't buy.

NO...I mean I really can't buy. I'm psycholgically financially done for. I can simply never allow myself to admit my loss and buy back my old house or similar for more than I sold it for. Could you? I mean COULD YOU REALLY????!!!! GRRRRrrrrrr! Apart from the psychological boundaries of paying a few hundred thousand more for something I once owned, there's also the physical constraints as well. My home's gone up almost 35% and my wages have gone up about 15%, my income simply won't stretch. I was so certain of this happening I've spent the last five years drifting through work. Spent half the time dreaming of what I was going to gain and the other half deramping the VI's that be. Well, why would I have paid for a meal when I thought I had a free one lined up?

I've never felt so much bitterness coursing though my veins in all my life. I know now why all those guys in 1929 jumped off the window ledges If I wasn't renting a £2,000,000 house for the "bargain" price of £8000 pcm I'd be joining them I tell ya! So what if my landlord inherited the house in 1976 and wants to keep it within his family for sentimental reasons, I'm taking his eyes out, I am, I AM.... do you hear me!!!!

Anyway , me old house, as I say I'm done for. I should know I've done the sums 76 times just this week alone. What on earth can I do? I could never let on publically? All I can do is continue in the same vein for another year. That is the ONLY option, no wonder some forum members have done this for a decade plus! If ever there was a vest that had an interest mind you I'm sure I could fill it.

<lightbulb> Dead cat. :-))))))

Yep that's what it is!

It's just a dead cat, and even they bounce. I know all me other stock market analogies haven't worked for the past half decade or even been relevant, that I can admit in my private diary , but this one, I do feel lucky on, yep, I DO feel lucky on this one punk! This one's definitely going to come to fruition isn't it? isn't it? ISN'T IT?????!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Now all Ive got to do is get that damned price down from 800k to 400k!

BK

PS, I tried to take this back to the mid and late 90's to incorporate a couple of the other LONGER long term bears, but alas my imagination simply couldn't stretch to incorporate such a mind set. Apologies.

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I'd like to just point out that it REALLY has been 5 + years since the bears started shouting HPC.

5 + years that could have been spent otherwise.

It is very very different this time. Occasionally a post sticks with me as ringing very true - you stated sometime ago that property was too cheap/undervalued when it initially started rising in value. I`m starting to agree with that theory. Property is still way over valued but did have to play catch up in some ways.

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I'd like to just point out that it REALLY has been 5 + years since the bears started shouting HPC.

5 + years that could have been spent otherwise.

Hi TTRTR,

So is it true you are BK from TMF, and that therefore that was your masterpiece?

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I'd like to just point out that it REALLY has been 5 + years since the bears started shouting HPC.

5 + years that could have been spent otherwise.

Indeed, but anyone who knows markets is fully aware that they can stay irrational for longer than you may be able to stay solvent.

This is one of those examples, you are correct that property was undervalued here, but as has been said, it is now overvalued. Nobody could have predicted September 11th 2001 and the effects this would have on world monetary policy. These measures are now being wound out and the cheap credit will flow back to whence it came, meaning the global phenomenon of "wealth" through high house prices will probably turn out to be simply a transient illusion. :lol:

The problem is that a lot of numpties still have large debts and (relatively) small salaries.

Edited by BubbleTurbo

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It is very very different this time. Occasionally a post sticks with me as ringing very true - you stated sometime ago that property was too cheap/undervalued when it initially started rising in value. I`m starting to agree with that theory. Property is still way over valued but did have to play catch up in some ways.

Good. So you are making progress. Do you also now agree that the THA 1988 and 1996 amendments (hrealding the birth of BTL in the UK) changed the paying field enough to change the fair value of all UK residential property?

Hi TTRTR,

So is it true you are BK from TMF, and that therefore that was your masterpiece?

I could only wish to be as creative as that person. I think we may have found CIUW's bull alternate.

Indeed, but anyone who knows markets is fully aware that they can stay irrational for longer than you may be able to stay solvent.

This is one of those examples, you are correct that property was undervalued here, but as has been said, it is now overvalued. Nobody could have predicted September 11th 2001 and the effects this would have on world monetary policy. These measures are now being wound out and the cheap credit will flow back to whence it came, meaning the global phenomenon of "wealth" through high house prices will probably turn out to be simply a transient illusion. :lol:

The problem is that a lot of numpties still have large debts and (relatively) small salaries.

Don't you think that a person who knew when it was undervalued would also know when the opposite had occured?

Hint: It ain't overvalued yet.

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Good. So you are making progress. Do you also now agree that the THA 1988 and 1996 amendments (hrealding the birth of BTL in the UK) changed the paying field enough to change the fair value of all UK residential property?

I could only wish to be as creative as that person. I think we may have found CIUW's bull alternate.

Perhaps, but from 2001 to 2004, property went well above what is it's fair value because of cheap credit.

Cheap credit which is now being withdrawn from the market.

In addition, sheep have got loaded up with debt, just able to keep their heads above water and utlility bills, council tax and a multitude of other outgoings have soared, meaning - more pinch.

It is a zero sum game. With the withdrawl of cheap credit, we will see the withdrawl of a lot of money from the housing market.

Don't you think that a person who knew when it was undervalued would also know when the opposite had occured?

Hint: It ain't overvalued yet.

No. As you cannot do and do not know anything else other than property.

The smart money, who are able to invest in other classes moved out of property some time ago as the risks were too great and the reward too little.

Edited by BubbleTurbo

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I'd like to just point out that it REALLY has been 5 + years since the bears started shouting HPC.

5 + years that could have been spent otherwise.

I turned bearish in late 2003 after selling my house for more than double what I paid for it in 1998. Since my STM, I have invested some in the equity markets but kept most in safe savings at at average of around 4%. Thus, some of us turned bear when the markets turned and knew when to sell high.

The question you must be facing now is: has the top of the market been reached and should I try to sell now to realise my gains? Or, do I hang on in the hope that prices will continue to rise in spite of the TREND (yoy gains have fallen dramatically 2003-2005) and liklihood that IR will continue to rise worldwide. Also, should I consider the increasing hostility toward landlords by a Labour government that is soon going to be struggling to survive and which is already making life tough for landlords.

Bottom line: are the potential rewards greater than the potential risks?

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I feel the need to point out that it's spelt 'Sydney'.

You also need to respond to my risk question above--it would be helpful to know how a Permabull thinks in a turning market. :)

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I turned bearish in late 2003 after selling my house for more than double what I paid for it in 1998. Since my STM, I have invested some in the equity markets but kept most in safe savings at at average of around 4%. Thus, some of us turned bear when the markets turned and knew when to sell high.

The question you must be facing now is: has the top of the market been reached and should I try to sell now to realise my gains? Or, do I hang on in the hope that prices will continue to rise in spite of the TREND (yoy gains have fallen dramatically 2003-2005) and liklihood that IR will continue to rise worldwide. Also, should I consider the increasing hostility toward landlords by a Labour government that is soon going to be struggling to survive and which is already making life tough for landlords.

Bottom line: are the potential rewards greater than the potential risks?

4%?

You don't get it do you? You get 4% from me. I get in from my tenants. The reward to me has been CG on your capital. That is why I'm happy. But are you happy with your 4%? Especially since you have to now borrow (what? 15%) more from others to buy back in?

Effectively, that has been a transfer of wealth from you to me.

Edited by Time to raise the rents.

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4%?

You don't get it do you? You get 4% from me. I get in from my tenants. The reward to me has been CG on your capital. That is why I'm happy. But are you happy with your 4%? Especially since you have to now borrow (what? 15%) more from others to buy back in?

Effectively, that has been a transfer of wealth from you to me.

As a snapshot, perhaps, but not once the credit cycle has run its full lap.

Edited by BubbleTurbo

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So I keep hearing.

Do you think the crown's estate is worried?

No.

But then they are not highly geared and of limited means. They are also not personally exposed to the macro effects of a struggling economy.

I don't expect they have an X5 secured on their roof either. :lol:

Edited by BubbleTurbo

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Guest wrongmove

Hi TTRTR,

So is it true you are BK from TMF, and that therefore that was your masterpiece?

BK is actually BBB from HPC or Yieldman from SP. He is still listed in the Forum top ten all time posters, but was effectively barred for being a bit too rude. He makes ttrtr look like a mere calf ! :lol:

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I'd like to just point out that it REALLY has been 5 + years since the bears started shouting HPC.

5 + years that could have been spent otherwise.

So what your saying is that because its not happened yet its never going to happen.

*Sigh*

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Perhaps, but from 2001 to 2004, property went well above what is it's fair value because of cheap credit.

Indeed. There is one thing which has caused house price to rise so far above historical levels:

Historically low interest rates.

Everything else, like the evils of planning permission and flats stuffed full of Eastern European immigrants, is secondary. The single basic driving force is ready availability of credit at some of the lowest rates in decades.

When rates rise, the party is over. And if the BoE doesn't raise rates, the markets will.

Effectively, that has been a transfer of wealth from you to me.

No, there's been a transfer of wealth from the banks to _the people you bought from_.

Edited by MarkG

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4%?

You don't get it do you? You get 4% from me. I get in from my tenants. The reward to me has been CG on your capital. That is why I'm happy. But are you happy with your 4%? Especially since you have to now borrow (what? 15%) more from others to buy back in?

Effectively, that has been a transfer of wealth from you to me.

This HPI is going to suck the economy down for years - this guy will have sold up and gone by then...

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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