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Jason

Odpm - Feb -1.2% Mom, +3.6% Yoy

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Nice graph on the report. We could be into negative territory by about June. The trend is still pointing in the righjt direction.

Steady as she goes. :)

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Break open the Champagne :D

TTRTRates and move things along?

I had to check in case I was dreaming, but here is more:

The office for the deputy Prime Minister said annual house price inflation in February slowed to 3.6 pct from 4.3 pct in January, with prices down 1.2 pct between the two months. Analysts polled by AFX News thought the rate would rise to 5.0 pct.

http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&ar...&action=article

Edited by Realistbear

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You love a good story! Spin away.

At least the threat of higher rates will reduce with these obviously correct numbers from John Prescott & his pals.

Sadly, I do not think so. The choice is not Gordon's to make. Its our creditors who call the shots now and Japan is coming to get us.

Remeber, buy low and sell high--while you still have time (unless the market spooks badly after today's refutation of all the VI spin we have been fed recently).

Looks like London got hit hardest:

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsarticl...HOUSEPRICES.xml

The Office of the Deputy Prime Minister said that house prices in London, which tend to lead national trends, rose just 1.9 percent in February from a year ago, down sharply from 5.3 percent reported a month earlier.

Down "sharply." Crash?

Edited by Realistbear

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BBC: The ODPM survey, based on completed sales,found that the average house price actually fell between January and February from £185,404 to £183,224.

I'm surprised that Rightmove did not pick up on this first. They tell us that they are a leading indicator of house price movements. Surely their figures should be the first to indicate any change of momentum.

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It feels so close to that tipping point , no doubt the spring bounce will put it up again but a few more months like that and we could be in free fall mode, once people see that YoY is -ve

someone guessed at late 2006/early 2007 sometime ago and they might be spot on.

It must be getting harder to spin out of the figures as they get closer to 0% YoY and falls of 1.2% MoM

I see Ftb's are falling again after a brief blip upwards

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http://www.in2perspective.com/nr/2006/04/h...in-february.jsp

The ODPM says that, "The fall in UK prices between January and February can be atributed to falls in average prices for all property types, in particular for flats (4.6 per cent)."

Thought that might be worth highlighting.

Alternatively you could highlight the FTB angle ;)

http://firstrung.co.uk/articles.asp?pageid...articlekey=1700

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This headline fall of 1.2% is fascinating given the other indices have been rising. Both with this news, and that which is coming through from higher IRs gives me encouragement today. :)

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Guest wrongmove

This headline fall of 1.2% is fascinating given the other indices have been rising. Both with this news, and that which is coming through from higher IRs gives me encouragement today. :)

Yes, it is encorouging, especially the YoY falls in some regions. But one months figures have too much noise in them. Let's hope the trend continues.

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Looking at the report a little closer it is comforting to see that flats (BTLs) got hit the hardest with quite a sharp fall:

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/10042006/214/febru...rices-fall.html

The survey suggest the fall in prices is largely attributable to falls for all property types, in particular for
flats down 4.6%
, detached properties down 1.2% and bungalows down 1.1%.

This suggests that it is time for BTLers to try to get out, especially TTRTR who should be thinking "I bought low so now is the time to sell high." IN other words, take the 4.6% hit before a bigger hit follows later.

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Yes, it is encorouging, especially the YoY falls in some regions. But one months figures have too much noise in them. Let's hope the trend continues.

Another interesting figure which may have a little less noise is the amount of money first time buyers are putting into the market :ph34r: . According to the report, once the weightings for 2006 are put in, FTB's are putting in less money in than any time since June 2004. Whereas there has been no change for former owner occupiers between december/january/feb. The FTB figures for Feb is slightly lower than Jan. Now I just need to figure out what the mix-adjustment weighting means... There's plenty more to say about these figures.

A4: Mix-adjusted house price

FTB Former Owner Occupier

...

2004 Jan 1 128,431 181,052

...

Jun 139,730 192,193

Jul 143,270 196,008

Aug 143,850 198,796

Sep 144,110 198,123

Oct 143,847 200,275

Nov 144,431 199,468

Dec 145,408 197,059

2005 Jan 1 146,024 196,054

Feb 145,887 194,701

Mar 149,470 198,681

Apr 150,133 196,181

May 150,259 197,313

Jun 150,348 199,468

Jul 153,168 201,163

Aug 153,285 201,110

Sep 2 152,543 202,052

Oct 2 151,927 199,904

Nov 2 152,225 201,053

Dec 2 152,683 200,768

2006 Jan 1,2,R 142,721 203,610

Feb 2 141,069 201,206

Note

1 Note that the weights used for mix-adjustment change at the start of each calendar year (i.e. in January). The mix-adjusted prices are therefore not comparable between calendar years, although they are comparable within each calendar year.

2 From September 2005, data are collected via the Regulated Mortgage Survey (RMS) of the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML)/BankSearch. Prices have been chain-linked to remove the structural change to these data caused by the change of survey.

R Figures for January 2006 have been revised following the annual change of weights.

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Ohh well, everyone getting excited

Let me see ODPM relates to Sales, Haliwde relates to surveyors reports.

Time differ about one to two months

Therefore these numbers relate to Haliwide numbers (non seasonally adjusted), which as we all know tend to fall then, which is why they Seasonally adjust.

Also FWIW Nationwide had 3.7% ann HPI for Feb and 4.4% for Jan , ODPM 3.6% Feb 4.3% and Jan. So they are all singing the same tune

Basically last month ODPM were ahead of the game, and then with the normal weak Feb( because they are NSA) They have corrected last months over egged HPI.

OOK its a weak number, but last months was too strong. Next month it will pick up again.

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Seems consistent with the non-SA 1.6% monthly fall published in January's Halifax report too.

Let's not get too excited... yet.

T&T

Is ODPM seasonally adjusted?

frugalista

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Seems consistent with the non-SA 1.6% monthly fall published in January's Halifax report too.

Let's not get too excited... yet.

T&T

And the nationwide fell to 1.8% ann HPI in Sept and the ODPM hit ann 1.6% HPI in Oct.

Is ODPM seasonally adjusted?

frugalista

No they aren't...

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I wouldn't read too much into the 1.2% figure. The ODPM numbers are quite volatile on a month by month basis. It's more a bouncy landing than soft landing at the moment.

The trouble is the runway's cracking badly and there's nothing beneath it.

We are just breaking throught the clouds, A little turbulence ahead I think.

You can hear the ice rattling in the G&T's.

The VI's had better Reset thier altimeters, The ground is a lot further down than they think.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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