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Suckers Rally Draws To A Close

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Tucked away on the back pages of the Sunday Times property section:

'Surveyors warn that we may already be at the top of the latest market rally. The rise in demand and prices in the wake of the August 2005 rate cut is over - warns the Royal institute of Chartered Surveyors. It says wider economic factors, including slowly rising unemployment will constrain prices for the rest of 2006.'

Seem to be echoing the Haliwide's stance - think they must know whats in the pipeline.

Looks like the 'suckers rally is drawing to a close'.

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Tucked away on the back pages of the Sunday Times property section:

'Surveyors warn that we may already be at the top of the latest market rally. The rise in demand and prices in the wake of the August 2005 rate cut is over - warns the Royal institute of Chartered Surveyors. It says wider economic factors, including slowly rising unemployment will constrain prices for the rest of 2006.'

Seem to be echoing the Haliwide's stance - think they must know whats in the pipeline.

Looks like the 'suckers rally is drawing to a close'.

Until the next "aberrant" IR cut?

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Not according to Roger Bootle of Capital Economics writing in the Sunday Telegrapg today

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm.../09/ixcoms.html

He comes down in favour of a weaker pound rather than risk another bout of consumer borrowing...eveb if that means higher IRs

Let's hope he's right this time, and doesn't have to do anothe U turn!

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Tucked away on the back pages of the Sunday Times property section:

'Surveyors warn that we may already be at the top of the latest market rally. The rise in demand and prices in the wake of the August 2005 rate cut is over - warns the Royal institute of Chartered Surveyors. It says wider economic factors, including slowly rising unemployment will constrain prices for the rest of 2006.'

Seem to be echoing the Haliwide's stance - think they must know whats in the pipeline.

Looks like the 'suckers rally is drawing to a close'.

Yeah, they'd like another rate cut to be in the pipeline.

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Yeah, they'd like another rate cut to be in the pipeline.

Why would they want that though? Cos they know that within 4 to 6 months, we will be back to the nervous market of late 2004/early 2005.

There will be no room for a rate cut, rates are going to be rising. Mervyn King knew this a long time ago, hence his chosen comments over the last couple of years. I think he will have little sympathy for the numpties who have been jumping in recently as he gave them all fair warning IMO. :lol:

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Many of you seem to miss this post

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=27543

Inflation undershoot to prompt further rate cuts

Roger Bootle’s response to April’s MPC meeting

http://www.deloitte.com/dtt/article/0,1002...53D8619,00.html

The Monetary Policy Committee today left interest rates at 4.5% for the eighth month in a row and a majority of economists now think that rates will stay there for the rest of the year. However, I still think that policy will be loosened in the second half of the year as inflation undershoots the target. ...

Admittedly, the recent price hikes by some domestic gas and electricity suppliers pose a threat to the inflation outlook in the near-term. But with competitive pressures on the high street set to remain intense as the consumer sector remains weak, I think that CPI inflation will fall significantly below its 2% target later this year.A marked undershoot of the inflation target will prompt the MPC to reduce interest rates again in the second half of the year, possibly to 4%.

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Many of you seem to miss this post

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=27543

Inflation undershoot to prompt further rate cuts

Roger Bootle’s response to April’s MPC meeting

http://www.deloitte.com/dtt/article/0,1002...53D8619,00.html

The Monetary Policy Committee today left interest rates at 4.5% for the eighth month in a row and a majority of economists now think that rates will stay there for the rest of the year. However, I still think that policy will be loosened in the second half of the year as inflation undershoots the target. ...

Admittedly, the recent price hikes by some domestic gas and electricity suppliers pose a threat to the inflation outlook in the near-term. But with competitive pressures on the high street set to remain intense as the consumer sector remains weak, I think that CPI inflation will fall significantly below its 2% target later this year.A marked undershoot of the inflation target will prompt the MPC to reduce interest rates again in the second half of the year, possibly to 4%.

There is also the political issue of siding with the Euro or the dollar to come into play, or am I wrong?

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For those who cannot read charts, what this one:

eb7a098c70.gif

...is saying is that the UPWARD MOMENTUM in US rates, are likely to drag UK rates higher.

I expect an increase of at least 0.50%, and maybe 1.00% in Gilt rates by year end, unless US rates

and inflation stop rising.

That will FRY the property bulls.

Thanks for this Bubb, but I ask again, what about the political implications, do you not see the possibilty of doing as little as poss. in order that UK rates and Euro rates come closer to aid in the inevitable intergration?

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Guest muttley

Thanks for this Bubb, but I ask again, what about the political implications, do you not see the possibilty of doing as little as poss. in order that UK rates and Euro rates come closer to aid in the inevitable intergration?

I don't see any appetite amongst the British population for joining the Euro. This would take another General Election, IMHO.

Interesting idea though.

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with america at 5.25% ?

to be honest, i don't really care if the mpc does drop interest rates down to 4%. it would be a very stupid thing to do, but we all know the recession and subsequent asset crash is going to hit sooner or later, so all a rate cut will do is make it worse for those who continue to deny it. so go and take on even more debt, because it looks like interest rates are going down again, it'll only increase the pain later. whatever happened to that rosie millard woman anyway...

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Many of you seem to miss this post

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=27543

Inflation undershoot to prompt further rate cuts

Roger Bootle’s response to April’s MPC meeting

http://www.deloitte.com/dtt/article/0,1002...53D8619,00.html

The Monetary Policy Committee today left interest rates at 4.5% for the eighth month in a row and a majority of economists now think that rates will stay there for the rest of the year. However, I still think that policy will be loosened in the second half of the year as inflation undershoots the target. ...

Admittedly, the recent price hikes by some domestic gas and electricity suppliers pose a threat to the inflation outlook in the near-term. But with competitive pressures on the high street set to remain intense as the consumer sector remains weak, I think that CPI inflation will fall significantly below its 2% target later this year.A marked undershoot of the inflation target will prompt the MPC to reduce interest rates again in the second half of the year, possibly to 4%.

Ah, low inflation. That must be why petrol has gone up 7p a litre round here in the last 3 weeks..... Dick!

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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